Grayson Allen's NBA potential

[Buzzooka Joe]

Let me start out by saying Grayson is my favorite Duke player this year.. I knew last year that he would be my new favorite Blue Devil as soon as he got more playing time.. And so far, he has definitely impressed even more than I expected..

But I do not see Grayson being a NBA 1st Round Draft Pick at the end of this year, no matter how well he plays.. I do believe he will be a 1st rounder by the end of his Senior year, and maybe even the end of his Junior year..

I think he is in the same boat that JJ was in.. Grayson & JJ are 2 completely different players, but they are/were both undersized NBA shooting guards that do not have the skills to play PG in the NBA - and even if they did, putting them at PG would take away their best asset, which is their ability to score..

Gerald Henderson was an undersized NBA Shooting Guard, BUT he had a few physical advantages over Grayson (10-15 extra pounds of muscle and 4 extra wingspan inches)..

And it's not a knock on Grayson that he (most likely) won't be a NBA 1st rounder at the end of this year.. Because I think the extra year or 2 at college will make a huge difference for his NBA career.. Think if JJ would have left early, he might be out of the league right now because it would have taken him a few moreyears to develop.. Now 10 years later, he is averaging 15ppg as the starting SG on a very good team..

Hopefully I'm right and we get another year or 2 of Grayson.. Image how much fun this kid will be to watch next year when he has an even better team than this year!

 

[dbav]

I respectfully disagree. You compared him to both Henderson and Redick, but to me he is a excellent blend of both of them.

He can shoot almost as well as JJ. He can sky like Hendo. He has a real nose for when to attack. I think the fact that he combines the best attributes of those two will help him potentially have a higher ceiling than either of them.

I believe the knock on both of those guys was that they were one dimensional (one athletic and one a shooter). Grayson is much more versatile than either in my opinion.

 

[DukeDenver]

He may never be a first rounder, but he can play in the league with his overall floor game. If his shot stays true, his on ball defense improves and he continues to add good weight, he'll get drafted. He's already a 2nd rounder, with a real chance to go late first.

 

[5timestheking]

I respectfully disagree. You compared him to both Henderson and Redick, but to me he is a excellent blend of both of them.

He can shoot almost as well as JJ. He can sky like Hendo. He has a real nose for when to attack. I think the fact that he combines the best attributes of those two will help him potentially have a higher ceiling than either of them.

I believe the knock on both of those guys was that they were one dimensional (one athletic and one a shooter). Grayson is much more versatile than either in my opinion.

You pretty much lost all credibility with the bolded statement

 

[aah555]

It's hard to say at this stage. But if Grayson plays anywhere near the level that he's shown in his last 3 games at Duke (Wisconsin + first 2 games of this season), the kid certainly has a chance to play himself into being a first round pick -- and potentially a pretty high mid-first round pick. From everything we've heard from Coach K the past 6 months and seen the past 2 games, it appears as if the plan is to feature Grayson as a primary star player this year -- and if he's able to play up to that role, he's going to have a chance to leave after this season. Aside from maybe being an inch or two smaller than the ideal for an NBA SG, he's got most of what you want from an NBA 2. He's explosive, he's very strong-bodied, he can shoot, and he can make some plays off the dribble. His play off the bounce clearly needs a lot of work before it's NBA ready -- but there's definitely enough there to work with.

Comparing Grayson to JJ or any other white perimeter player we've had here over the last twenty years is just silly. With the possible exception of Winslow, I'd say Grayson was the best pound for pound overall athlete (in terms of explosiveness, quickness, strength) we had on last year's team -- let alone this year's team. I really can't think of a good comp. that we've had at Duke in the past 15-20 years. Gerald would probably be the closest, but I think he was a very different type player -- namely a naturally excellent defensive player who developed into a pretty good offensive player; whereas Grayson is a naturally offensive-minded player whose developing into a pretty good defensive player. On the offensive end, not sure Grayson has quite the same body control Gerald had in the mid-range --- but he's certainly got a much better perimeter shot at the same stage. Unlike Gerald -- whose shooting form makes an NBA 3 a bit of a challenge -- Grayson's going to become an excellent NBA 3 pt. shooter within a few seasons.

 

[SwlaDukie]

The kid is taylor-made for the NBA. He is the most marketable player in the college game next to Simmons. He maybe more marketable than him, because he is a white kid with elite athleticism and heart. The most memorable plays in last years tourney was Grayson's. Everyone in the country saw that dunk against Michigan St. it went viral. I know Duke hasn't played any real competition yet, but the kid drives the full length of the court and finishes above the rim. NBA GM's have to be salivating over him. Its an entertainment league, and he may be the most entertaining player in the country. Now how his total game translates to the NBA game is different. How well he'll do in the NBA is different. I think he will do well in time cause of his work ethic. You can't compare him to JJ or Gerald, because he possesses the ability to handle the ball. He also is able to make players around him better.

 

[ChapelTower]

The kid is taylor-made for the NBA. He is the most marketable player in the college game next to Simmons. He maybe more marketable than him, because he is a white kid with elite athleticism and heart. The most memorable plays in last years tourney was Grayson's. Everyone in the country saw that dunk against Michigan St. it went viral. I know Duke hasn't played any real competition yet, but the kid drives the full length of the court and finishes above the rim. NBA GM's have to be salivating over him. Its an entertainment league, and he may be the most entertaining player in the country. Now how his total game translates to the NBA game is different. How well he'll do in the NBA is different. I think he will do well in time cause of his work ethic. You can't compare him to JJ or Gerald, because he possesses the ability to handle the ball. He also is able to make players around him better.

He did have a few good passes over the last two games. Not just regular stationary good passes -- but the type in the midst of a hard drive indicating that he has good peripheral vision and court awareness.

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

I believe Graysin can have a good NBA career and that when he does leave Duke he will be a 1st round pick..

My point was basically that his size/position is going to force him to play 3-4 years of college before being drafted (unless he leaves early to be a 2nd round pick, which I don't think he would do that).. Similar to JJ.. Remember, JJ averaged 15ppg his FR year, 16ppg his SO year, 22ppg his JR year, and 26ppg (NCAA Player of the Year) his SR year and he still wasn't a top 10 draft pick..

Lottery teams aren't going to risk their pick on an undersized Sophmore SG.. They will risk it on an undersized Senior SG that has progressed each year.

 

[dukehokie]

I get what Zooka is saying. Players who are nowhere near as talented as Grayson will be picked ahead of him. It's just the nature of the potential game that is the NBA draft. The measurables are what gets you drafted high anymore, not production. 6'4 SG with a short wingspan. That's all the draft gurus will see. Now if he produces consistently for 3 years like this, he will be in the 10-20 range. A la JJ.

But yes, please let's not start comparing him to JJ and Gerald. JJ was a world class shooter. I played against the kid from 8th grade through high school. He is a prodigy. And Gerald is one of the best athletes in Duke history and is still one of the best athletes in the NBA, probably top 10-15. Grayson is not either one of those. Whoever said it earlier, yes he is a nice mixture of both skill sets. The great comparison prior to his arrival here was Bob Sura.

 

[pisgah101]

I get what Zooka is saying. Players who are nowhere near as talented as Grayson will be picked ahead of him. It's just the nature of the potential game that is the NBA draft. The measurables are what gets you drafted high anymore, not production. 6'4 SG with a short wingspan. That's all the draft gurus will see. Now if he produces consistently for 3 years like this, he will be in the 10-20 range. A la JJ.

But yes, please let's not start comparing him to JJ and Gerald. JJ was a world class shooter. I played against the kid from 8th grade through high school. He is a prodigy. And Gerald is one of the best athletes in Duke history and is still one of the best athletes in the NBA, probably top 10-15. Grayson is not either one of those. Whoever said it earlier, yes he is a nice mixture of both skill sets. The great comparison prior to his arrival here was Bob Sura.

U played against jj??? I want some stories!

 

[dukiejay]

Grayson may have the opportunity to be a first-round pick after this season.

I'll say this....he loves Duke. But at the same time, he already has a national championship and he's getting an opportunity as a sophomore to be a primary team leader. If, if, if....he's a projected first-rounder after this season it wouldn't shock me at all if he decided the NBA was his next mission.

 

[dukehokie]

U played against jj??? I want some stories!

Great story my junior year of high school. We played JJ's Cave Spring team in a holiday tournament. Other than him they had a couple of decent players, one of which I played club with at Virginia Tech. Our coach's gameplan was obviously to deny him all game and we had a guy (my cousin) who could do it. He ended up playing wideout for Maryland then transferred to Shenandoah and broke a few records. Needless to say he's an athlete. Anyway, he held JJ to 10 points in the first half and we were up. Then we got tricky and decided to put the team's mouth on him. Talk him into a bad game if you will. That backfired quickly. He trashed talked him before the ball was even inbounded, pissed JJ off and he proceeded to drop a 30 footer on us. It was all downhill from there. 21 points in the 3rd, we were down 15 and he didn't even play in the fourth. Ugh.

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

I get what Zooka is saying. Players who are nowhere near as talented as Grayson will be picked ahead of him. It's just the nature of the potential game that is the NBA draft. The measurables are what gets you drafted high anymore, not production. 6'4 SG with a short wingspan. That's all the draft gurus will see. Now if he produces consistently for 3 years like this, he will be in the 10-20 range. A la JJ.

But yes, please let's not start comparing him to JJ and Gerald. JJ was a world class shooter. I played against the kid from 8th grade through high school. He is a prodigy. And Gerald is one of the best athletes in Duke history and is still one of the best athletes in the NBA, probably top 10-15. Grayson is not either one of those. Whoever said it earlier, yes he is a nice mixture of both skill sets. The great comparison prior to his arrival here was Bob Sura.

I'm definitely not comparing Grayson to JJ or Gerald.. just his situation of being an undersized SG with NBA potential.

NBAdraft.net only has 1 true SG projected to go in the 1st round that is shorter than 6'6" - and he is a Senior, weighs 215 pounds, and has a 6'8.5" wingspan.. the next projected true SG under 6'6" to go is in the 2nd round and he is a Senior, 220 pounds, with a 6'8.5" wingspan.

 

[pisgah101]

Great story my junior year of high school. We played JJ's Cave Spring team in a holiday tournament. Other than him they had a couple of decent players, one of which I played club with at Virginia Tech. Our coach's gameplan was obviously to deny him all game and we had a guy (my cousin) who could do it. He ended up playing wideout for Maryland then transferred to Shenandoah and broke a few records. Needless to say he's an athlete. Anyway, he held JJ to 10 points in the first half and we were up. Then we got tricky and decided to put the team's mouth on him. Talk him into a bad game if you will. That backfired quickly. He trashed talked him before the ball was even inbounded, pissed JJ off and he proceeded to drop a 30 footer on us. It was all downhill from there. 21 points in the 3rd, we were down 15 and he didn't even play in the fourth. Ugh.

That's awesome thanks for sharing!

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

But while we are on the topic of Gerald Henderson.. lets relieve these amazing moments..

 

[dukehokie]

I'm definitely not comparing Grayson to JJ or Gerald.. just his situation of being an undersized SG with NBA potential.

NBAdraft.net only has 1 true SG projected to go in the 1st round that is shorter than 6'6" - and he is a Senior, weighs 215 pounds, and has a 6'8.5" wingspan.. the next projected true SG under 6'6" to go is in the 2nd round and he is a Senior, 220 pounds, with a 6'8.5" wingspan.

I wasn't referring to you Zooka. Look above. I was defending your perspective.

 

[aah555]

As I already noted, I think Grayson's height is a bit of a challenge. With that said, I think some of you are underselling him a bit. He's 6'4.5 with shoes and, unlike some white players (which I presume is why there have been suggestions about him having him short arms), does have a pretty solid wingspan for someone his height -- draft express has it at 6.6'5. The comparisons to JJ (in the sense of how he needed to wait to get NBA draft interest) are wrong for a few reasons IMO. First, times have changed and teams are now far more likely to draft on upside. Second, notwithstanding the stereotypes of white SGs, Grayson is a high-upside talent that definitely has the body / athleticism to excel at the next level. There's really no comparison to JJ, who was nowhere near the athlete, genuinely had short arms (6'3), and basically couldn't do much of anything off the dribble before his jr. year. In terms of becoming an NBA player, a lot of the things that held JJ back (athleticism, arm length, ball handling) don't apply to Grayson.

If Grayson goes out there and averages 18 ppg for the season and is the leading scorer on this year's team, I definitely think he's going to be in position to go in the 2nd half of the first round. While Grayson's height isn't ideal -- it's not as if he's a 6'2 SG either. Once you account for his athleticism, he's definitely in the ballpark of the size you need to play that position at the next level once you account for his height. While I think Gerald was a little more dynamic, when you project for the next level, a decent argument can be made that Grayson's a lot more intriguing b/c he's got far more potential to be an excellent 3 pt. shooter -- which Gerald really has never been able to master. That inability to shoot has pretty much put a ceiling on how good Gerald can be at the next level; as he messes up the floor spacing when teams sag in and dare him to take 3s.

Personally, I'd be surprised if Grayson is back next year -- and if he is back, it'll be by choice IMO (barring injury). Not b/c he's not going to have a chance to leave.

 

[dukehokie]

Haha. The white/black stuff has got to go. He has short arms because they are short, plainly put. 6'6 wingspan on a 6'5 player isn't lottery pick potential. Sorry it's just not, doesn't matter if you are white, black, Hispanic, etc.

And IMO, Grayson will always fall in the draft range of a contender. He's not someone you mortgage your team's future. That's saved for the Brandon Ingrams and Ben Simmons' of the world.

Yes Grayson will be a first round pick for a playoff caliber team which is a great situation for him. The question wil be if he wants to stay or leave on his own accord as you so eloquently stated aah.

 

[aah555]

Haha. The white/black stuff has got to go. He has short arms because they are short, plainly put. 6'6 wingspan on a 6'5 player isn't lottery pick potential. Sorry it's just not, doesn't matter if you are white, black, Hispanic, etc.

And IMO, Grayson will always fall in the draft range of a contender. He's not someone you mortgage your team's future. That's saved for the Brandon Ingrams and Ben Simmons' of the world.

Yes Grayson will be a first round pick for a playoff caliber team which is a great situation for him. The question wil be if he wants to stay or leave on his own accord as you so eloquently stated aah.

Two points. I said he'd go 2nd half of the first round (i.e., after the lottery) -- whereas the presumption in many posts above is that he probably wouldn't have a chance to leave until after year 3-4 (unless he was willing to go second round). I very clearly was disagreeing with the suggestion that the NBA won't be a realistic option for him after this season.

Further, it's 6'6.5 wingspan on a height of a 6'4.5 player. I'm not saying the arms are long by NBA standards, but they're definitely not short. They're about what you'd expect for a player of his height. Short arms are JJ being a 6'5 shooting guard with a 6'3 wingspan or Marshall Plumlee having a 6'10 wingspan on a 7'0 body. If Grayson genuinely has a 6'6.5 wingspan, no NBA team is going to be accusing him of having short arms. And I'd add that these measurements are from camps in 2013 before his sr. year in high school. It's certainly possible Grayson's grown a bit since then.

I agree nobody's going to mortgage their future over Grayson. But, personally, I think he's a lot better long-term NBA prospect than someone like Tyus and arguably even Austin Rivers. Maybe Grayson makes a different decision, but it's been awhile since we've had a star player on our team turn down the NBA when it was a realistic option (i.e., a guaranteed place in the first round). Kyle Singler is really the only one I can think of in the past 6-7 years.*

*I view Mason a bit differently b/c he never really was a key focal point of the team until his Sr. year -- and he's often said that he stayed b/c he didn't want to leave with no real legacy here.

 

[pisgah101]

I didn't know white people were suppose to have short arms lol

 

[aah555]

I didn't know white people were suppose to have short arms lol

Well, "short" by elite NBA basketball standards. lol. The average person has a wingspan that is commensurate to their height. However, in the world of NBA projections, the expectation / ideal is for the guy to have longer arms than their height -- b/c you then combine the athleticism / explosiveness of a smaller player with the reach of a taller player. With limited exceptions, most guys who get drafted highly have wingspans that exceeds their heights -- and often far in excess. While it's obviously not uniform, that's certainly been an issue for a number of our white players. Mason & Miles Plumlee, Jon Scheyer, and JJ Redick are all guys whose height exceed their wingspan. The same is true for the Zellers and Hansbrough.

That obviously stands in contrast to a lot of our guys who ended up in the lottery, who had vastly different dimensions. Henderson had a 6'10 wingspan on a 6'4 body (w/out shoes); Winslow had a 6'10 wingspan on a 6'4.5 body; Parker had a 6'11.5 wingspan on a 6'8 body; okafor had a 7'5 wingspan on a 6'10 body. Even Tyus Jones had a 6'5 wingspan.

 

[pisgah101]

lol ahh I really never thought about it

 

[dbav]

I really didn't mean to compare Grayson to JJ or Hendo directly. I meant to convey that he seems to have a nice mix of the best attributes of each.

 

[dukehokie]

Two points. I said he'd go 2nd half of the first round (i.e., after the lottery) -- whereas the presumption in many posts above is that he probably wouldn't have a chance to leave until after year 3-4 (unless he was willing to go second round). I very clearly was disagreeing with the suggestion that the NBA won't be a realistic option for him after this season.

Further, it's 6'6.5 wingspan on a height of a 6'4.5 player. I'm not saying the arms are long by NBA standards, but they're definitely not short. They're about what you'd expect for a player of his height. Short arms are JJ being a 6'5 shooting guard with a 6'3 wingspan or Marshall Plumlee having a 6'10 wingspan on a 7'0 body. If Grayson genuinely has a 6'6.5 wingspan, no NBA team is going to be accusing him of having short arms. And I'd add that these measurements are from camps in 2013 before his sr. year in high school. It's certainly possible Grayson's grown a bit since then.

I agree nobody's going to mortgage their future over Grayson. But, personally, I think he's a lot better long-term NBA prospect than someone like Tyus and arguably even Austin Rivers. Maybe Grayson makes a different decision, but it's been awhile since we've had a star player on our team turn down the NBA when it was a realistic option (i.e., a guaranteed place in the first round). Kyle Singler is really the only one I can think of in the past 6-7 years.*

*I view Mason a bit differently b/c he never really was a key focal point of the team until his Sr. year -- and he's often said that he stayed b/c he didn't want to leave with no real legacy here.

Trust me, I don't disagree at all. If you're not a superman with the basketball in the NBA, you need to fit a role, and Grayson has a jumper and can pass. He will for a role better than Austin could (for me jury is still out on Tyus, though I viewed him as least likely to succeed out of last year's freshmen).

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

I didn't know white people were suppose to have short arms lol

You know what they say about a white man with short arms, right?

 

[dukiejay]

You know what they say about a white man with short arms, right?

They have shorter sleeves?

 

[pisgah101]

Hahahahahahaha!!

 

[timo0402]

Trust me, I don't disagree at all. If you're not a superman with the basketball in the NBA, you need to fit a role, and Grayson has a jumper and can pass. He will for a role better than Austin could (for me jury is still out on Tyus, though I viewed him as least likely to succeed out of last year's freshmen).

Austin Rivers? he's filling in pretty decent right now on the clips. he had a pretty solid showing in the post season too last year.

 

[skysdad]

If Grayson played for UNC he would be one of the top 50 NBA players ever. OFC

 

[aah555]

I take back everything I said about Grayson. lol. Dear god.

 

[pisgah101]

Anybody still think he's going to the NBA after this season? Lol

 

[CRAZIE4LIFE]

Everyone has a bad game but good grief, this is baaaad

 

[dukehokie]

Austin Rivers? he's filling in pretty decent right now on the clips. he had a pretty solid showing in the post season too last year.

Never said he wasn't. Said Grayson would fit a role better than Austin did. It took Austin getting on his dad's team to find his niche, did it not?

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

Grayson has been terrible, but there is plenty of time for him to make a positive impact on this game. Go Grayson, and Go Duke!

OFC

 

[Dukesince90]

We forget that Grayson's role has changed big time. He'll learn a lot from this game, hopefully he's a fast learner and it shows in the second half.

 

[dbav]

I'll stand by my initial poats. I have a feeling 1 game won't drip him out of the NBA.

Keep up the hard work Grayson.

 

[timo0402]

Never said he wasn't. Said Grayson would fit a role better than Austin did. It took Austin getting on his dad's team to find his niche, did it not?

Yeah but that's the vast majority of the NBA. You find the right fit and you can stick.

 

[aah555]

I still like Grayson's long-term NBA prospects, but last night seriously recalibrated my short-term thoughts on his NBA future. For Grayson, I don't think the problem was that he played badly. That happens from time to time. And, frankly, I'd say Ingram was almost as ineffective as Allen. However, unless Grayson goes on to completely dominate against elite competition, I do think last night's game may have irreparably harmed his chances of going anywhere in the top 20-25 spots this season because of what it exposed -- i.e., that he doesn't handle the ball well against ball pressure and has no midrange game at all. In particular, when a team with NBA-length took away the one thing Grayson is really good at (putting his head down and attacking the rim hard), he really had no answers for how to score. He just kept doing the same thing and getting the same results. And what that tells me is that Grayson isn't long/athletic enough to go over NBA-sized bigs and doesn't have the type of midrange game / creativity around the rim to get his shot off against bigger, more athletic guys. That's really a fundamental flaw in his game that every NBA team is going to focus upon during the draft process. While I think Grayson can certainly improve on the weaknesses that were exposed last night, I don't think there are any quick fixes for what we saw last night.

As a comparison, while I think Ingram was also bad, reality is that his problems were that he (i) missed some makeable shots, (ii) made some dumb mistakes on offensive fouls, and (iii) didn't seem to play with enough intensity at times. While those are all problems, a lot of that stuff can be chalked up to inexperience and a bad night. Those are the sorts of things NBA scouts will overlook if it's a one night occasion. What happened with Grayson is completely different IMO. Even if Grayson goes out and dominates a lot of other games, I think a lot of scouts will look at Grayson's performance last night as exposing a larger problem with how his game / strengths translate to the next level.

 

[dukehokie]

Yeah but that's the vast majority of the NBA. You find the right fit and you can stick.

Not my point. You were acting as if I was slighting Austin and that wasn't the case. I'm actually a big Rivers supporter as I feel he gets unfairly vilified on this board and by Duke fans in general. It's all good though.

 

[timo0402]

Not my point. You were acting as if I was slighting Austin and that wasn't the case. I'm actually a big Rivers supporter as I feel he gets unfairly vilified on this board and by Duke fans in general. It's all good though.

I hear you, i am with you on the latter part, probably just missing each other's point.