Best High School Players in Decade of OAD

[BluePhil]

I have been doing a little number crunching concerning the draft results of the top ten high school players for each year since 2006.

These of course are the most coveted of the high school recruits. I discovered some surprising things that belied my preconceptions. Here are some statistics from this number crunching.

2006-2015 - Top Ten each year - 100 recruits

Of the 100 High School Recruits -

1. 84 have been drafted already
2. 11 went undrafted in the year they entered the draft
3. 4 are still in College for next year
4. 1 (Isaiah Austin developed an illness and was ceremonially drafted)
5. 62 are still playing in the NBA (Possibly more trying but 62 were on a current roster in 2015-2016) Of course latest 10 have not had their chance yet.
6. 8 Have become All Stars
7. So not counting the College Students and Austin - A top ten High School Player has an 88% chance of being drafted.

Of the top 100 High School Recruits -

1. 98 played College Ball
2. 1 Went and played overseas (Brandon Jennings)
3. 1 Was ruled ineligible (Enes Kanter)

I remember when Brandon Jennings decided to play overseas there was a lot of talk about that being the future of the best high schoolers. They could get paid for their one year of ball. This has not proven out so far.

The top ten High Schoolers College Stats

1. 31 Different Colleges have snagged a top ten recruits in the last decade.
2. Kentucky has had 15
3. Duke has had 7
4. UNC has had 7
5. Kansas has had 6
6. No other school has had more than 4
7. Nationwide the average place on the draft for a top 10 High School Player is 22.01
8. UNC is slightly worse than average with an average pick of 23 for their top 10 High Schoolers
9. Kansas is pitiful with an average pick of 28.50 for their Top 10 High Schoolers
10. Kentucky beats the average with an average pick of 20.60 for their Top Ten High Schoolers
11. Duke crushes the average with an average pick of 10.71 for their top 10 High Schoolers
    
    (NOTE on method - I did not count transfers against any school - I counted the last school as their school - nor did I count Kanter that did not play at UK for UK's numbers. Also if a player went undrafted I assigned him 61 as his draft number in order to get my average for teams and my overall average).

There are other interesting numbers to look at and I plan on investigating - All five star high school players - other players that entered the draft (4 and 3 star). It would be an interesting metric that would give a better idea of which team best gest players to the NBA. It would also be interesting to take Cal's numbers from Memphis and incorporate them.

That said it was very notable that Duke's average draft pick of its top ten high schoolers was significantly lower than the others with a significant number to analyze.

It also is interesting to see how far off Kansas' numbers were off the national average.

 

[LetsGoDuke301]

Of everything you noted. Only 8% have become Allstars is the thing that stands out to me. It just proves that the rankings are mostly based on obvious talent.

 

[BluePhil]

Of everything you noted. Only 8% have become Allstars is the thing that stands out to me. It just proves that the rankings are mostly based on obvious talent.

The All-Star is a bit tougher as it takes a few seasons to make it - usually. I'd guess - based upon the avg number of seasons it takes to become and all-star that there will be approximately 7-9 more from that 100.

 

[LTDukeFan]

Those are cool stats. I have to wonder what would happen if the kids had to stay in school for an extra year -- would the come out better or worse?

 

[dukehokie]

The biggest variable is quality of class. Some of these recruiting classes haven't been of high caliber. While two IMO (2007 & 2014) were head and shoulders above the others.

Love what you did with this breakdown.

Add Emmanuel Mudiay to your overseas guys. He was a top 3 prospect in the 2014 class.

 

[dukedevilz]

Just out of curiosity, how do you account for top 10 players in your averages that weren't drafted like Cliff Alexander and James Michael McAdoo?

 

[dukedevilz]

2006 Class has some nice star power with Durant, Curry, and Westbrook. Of course Curry and Westbrook were completely overlooked as they were both 3-star prospects.

 

[BluePhil]

Just out of curiosity, how do you account for top 10 players in your averages that weren't drafted like Cliff Alexander and James Michael McAdoo?

I assigned them the draft pick of 61. Not perfect but punishes the status without going too extreme. Fairest way I could think of to handle it.

 

[dukedevilz]

Yeah, makes sense.