1st Round Picks since 2000

[LTDukeFan]

This year has a massive amount of freshman go at the top of the first round -- 10 freshman, 1 European, and a sophomore (Luke Kennard) were the first 12 picks.

Everyone is clamoring about having multi-year players in college. So it got me thinking, when was the last time that a senior was the 1st pick in the draft. You have to go back to 2000 -- 17 years!

The idea of a competitive player in college staying for 4 years seems to be a thing of the past. I think the best we can hope for is 2 years. Until the NBA decides something different, we are where we are. The next big chance of a senior going high in the 1st round is Grayson -- I hope!

I started this thread because I see a lot of us posting about certain recruits -- "Is he a multi-year player?", "I hope he stays longer than...", "I hate the OAD trend...". A competitive player with NBA potential sacrifices 2-3 years of earning power. Hard to pass up.

For me -- AND I DON'T LIKE IT -- here is the new normal -- I am pleasantly surprised if any starter comes back the next year that is not scheduled to graduate. And yes, I realize that I am setting the bar low.

Sorry I had to insert as a pic. I could not get the excel table in without losing the formatting.

 

[Mac9192]

This year has a massive amount of freshman go at the top of the first round -- 10 freshman, 1 European, and a sophomore (Luke Kennard) were the first 12 picks.

Everyone is clamoring about having multi-year players in college. So it got me thinking, when was the last time that a senior was the 1st pick in the draft. You have to go back to 2000 -- 17 years!

The idea of a competitive player in college staying for 4 years seems to be a thing of the past. I think the best we can hope for is 2 years. Until the NBA decides something different, we are where we are. The next big chance of a senior going high in the 1st round is Grayson -- I hope!

I started this thread because I see a lot of us posting about certain recruits -- "Is he a multi-year player?", "I hope he stays longer than...", "I hate the OAD trend...". A competitive player with NBA potential sacrifices 2-3 years of earning power. Hard to pass up.

For me -- AND I DON'T LIKE IT -- here is the new normal -- I am pleasantly surprised if any starter comes back the next year that is not scheduled to graduate. And yes, I realize that I am setting the bar low.

Sorry I had to insert as a pic. I could not get the excel table in without losing the formatting.

Good post LT. Can't argue with what you stated. I have done my fair share of complaining about some of the veterans at Duke, such as Matt Jones or others before him, but they do bring a value to the team. I'm not one who wants 7-8 one and done's on the team at one time, but like you said the days of 4 year stars in this format is slim to none. The 15 title team needed Cook's leadership to do what they did. I've said it before but I like the staff going after 2-3 one and done's a year with the multi year guys blended in, and hoping they improve each year so that if a freshman star is struggling or gets injured, the team can sustain it a little better. That's another reason I like the signing of Goldwire this year. Whether he plays much or not, going at it in practice with Duval, Allen and Trent can only make him better I think

 

[jwill133]

This year has a massive amount of freshman go at the top of the first round -- 10 freshman, 1 European, and a sophomore (Luke Kennard) were the first 12 picks.

Everyone is clamoring about having multi-year players in college. So it got me thinking, when was the last time that a senior was the 1st pick in the draft. You have to go back to 2000 -- 17 years!

The idea of a competitive player in college staying for 4 years seems to be a thing of the past. I think the best we can hope for is 2 years. Until the NBA decides something different, we are where we are. The next big chance of a senior going high in the 1st round is Grayson -- I hope!

I started this thread because I see a lot of us posting about certain recruits -- "Is he a multi-year player?", "I hope he stays longer than...", "I hate the OAD trend...". A competitive player with NBA potential sacrifices 2-3 years of earning power. Hard to pass up.

For me -- AND I DON'T LIKE IT -- here is the new normal -- I am pleasantly surprised if any starter comes back the next year that is not scheduled to graduate. And yes, I realize that I am setting the bar low.

Sorry I had to insert as a pic. I could not get the excel table in without losing the formatting.

Unless they change the rule, we may never see a non-freshman as the #1 pick again. Unless its an international guy.

 

[DukeDenver]

I'd rather the NBA dump the 19 year old requirement for drafting. Let's have college ball be more about teamwork and effort, rather than seeing how many Tatum's we can recruit in a given cycle. Admittedly, I like it either way.

 

[dukehokie]

If you're good enough to be the #1 pick, you're not sticking around and coaches aren't selling the 4 year dream anymore either. These kids are getting wiser about their worth and their careers and until the NCAA finds a way to fairly compensate these kids, this is going to be what happens. And I don't blame them one bit for going to get their money. I mean really, isn't that what college is about, establishing a career?

Honestly, now instead of getting four years to establish a fan/player relationship, you really have to get into these guys and learn about them as high schoolers and enjoy them for the year or two that we have them. For instance, just in following his career and recruitment, I'm a huge Wendell Carter fan and it all started his junior year of high school. It's just the nature of the beast now.

 

[dukehokie]

I'd rather the NBA dump the 19 year old requirement for drafting. Let's have college ball be more about teamwork and effort, rather than seeing how many Tatum's we can recruit in a given cycle. Admittedly, I like it either way.

I agree with this. Let the guys go from high school. I'm honestly surprised more kids aren't taking the overseas route.

Interestingly enough, if Grayson has the season he needs to have for this team to contend, he could be that rare lottery pick senior seeing as how it's a weak class and the only real can't miss players at the moment are Porter, Jr., Ayton and the super prospect Luka Doncic.

 

[hart2chesson]

Good post LT. Can't argue with what you stated. I have done my fair share of complaining about some of the veterans at Duke, such as Matt Jones or others before him, but they do bring a value to the team. I'm not one who wants 7-8 one and done's on the team at one time, but like you said the days of 4 year stars in this format is slim to none. The 15 title team needed Cook's leadership to do what they did. I've said it before but I like the staff going after 2-3 one and done's a year with the multi year guys blended in, and hoping they improve each year so that if a freshman star is struggling or gets injured, the team can sustain it a little better. That's another reason I like the signing of Goldwire this year. Whether he plays much or not, going at it in practice with Duval, Allen and Trent can only make him better I think

Loved you mentioned Cook!! We dont win in '15 w/o his sr. Leadership IMO! Excited about Goldwire's development too as you mentioned!

OFC

 

[Mac9192]

If you're good enough to be the #1 pick, you're not sticking around and coaches aren't selling the 4 year dream anymore either. These kids are getting wiser about their worth and their careers and until the NCAA finds a way to fairly compensate these kids, this is going to be what happens. And I don't blame them one bit for going to get their money. I mean really, isn't that what college is about, establishing a career?

Honestly, now instead of getting four years to establish a fan/player relationship, you really have to get into these guys and learn about them as high schoolers and enjoy them for the year or two that we have them. For instance, just in following his career and recruitment, I'm a huge Wendell Carter fan and it all started his junior year of high school. It's just the nature of the beast now.

This system that is in play has also hurt Duke defensively. Duke's man to man d takes the team longer to be as good as K wants them to be. Ball denial, help side, and the rotation of guys over is slower. It's a reason to me our guards get beat so bad. It's not that they're slower, but more so that it requires help, which they don't get. K has been forced to play more zone or traps to slow the other team down, unless he's just gonna try to outscore everyone.

 

[dukehokie]

This system that is in play has also hurt Duke defensively. Duke's man to man d takes the team longer to be as good as K wants them to be. Ball denial, help side, and the rotation of guys over is slower. It's a reason to me our guards get beat so bad. It's not that they're slower, but more so that it requires help, which they don't get. K has been forced to play more zone or traps to slow the other team down, unless he's just gonna try to outscore everyone.

And as good as K is at adapting, and that includes moving to zone, for some reason he has seriously struggled in adapting the way he teaches man D. The 2015 team got it eventually, but the zone is really what saved them a few times (that and just flat out being able to outscore teams). But some of these high turnover teams have been doing a good job with Man defense while Duke hasn't. Maybe it's personnel or maybe it's K banking on the guys getting it in the waning moments of the season, but you're right, there is a definite decline on that side of the ball for Duke.