Duke-UNC --- Keys to the Game

[dukiejay]

Let's be honest, when the schedule comes out in August the first thing we all look for are the two dates of the Duke-UNC games. Well, this is as late as I can ever remember for the first one....but the excitement and lead up is just the same.

So what are the keys to the game for us?

1) I think we must establish Jahlil early. You know UNC is going to double, so Jah has to make the decision right away if he's going to the basket. Brice Johnson can cause some havoc as a weakside helper, but I don't see how Meeks can contain Jah.

2) Defend, but don't extend. I know, a cute little play on words, but I think it's the truth. UNC does not shoot the ball well. That doesn't mean they aren't capable, but their season-to-date shooting numbers leave a lot to be desired. They have a few guys who can get into the lane though.

3) Kind of to #2's point, but we have to control the defensive glass. If we limit UNC's second chances we're going to be in pretty good shape. But what UNC likes to do is get into the lane and draw helpers. It puts teams/players out of position and makes them deadly on the offensive boards. The less we're having to leave men the better.

4) The freshmen cannot be rattled. Our freshmen aren't typical freshmen, but they're freshmen, nonetheless. And they haven't played in this *game* before. The intensity definitely rachets up a notch. It's important they feed off their teammates and the crowd, but at the same time that can also be a crutch.

For UNC, IMO.

1) I think they need Paige to have a big game. He's their big equalizer....and we all know he's a very good player. He's struggled some this season, but this is the kind of game that could catapult him for the rest of year.

2) I mentioned above that one of the keys for us is protecting the defensive glass, but the offensive glass is huge for them. Johnson, Meeks, Hicks and Tokoto are all excellent rebounders of missed shots. We must contain/neutralize here, if we don't, any perceived advantage we might have coming in is negated.

3) UNC will need to make some outside shots, and ideally I think a few will have to come from someone not named Marcus Paige. I expect him to get some looks and knock them down....the question is who on their team is able to provide a second punch.

Lastly, I do think we're the better team, but I don't think we're far and away better. If we don't play really well UNC can and will beat us. We're catching them at a time where they're not playing to their capabilities, but we've seen in the past how a Duke-UNC game brings out the best in both teams. Right now we're riding high(er), but that can all change in just 40 minutes.

It should be another fun one. Here's to hoping our boys come out on top.

 

[gottagonow]

dukiejay I think you're pretty much right about all you said. One strong point for us IMHO is our gutsy play which has carried us to victory in several games this season, games I thought we would lose and frankly surprised me with our level of play. It seems we play the tougher teams better down the stretch when we somehow reach and grab another gear and so far have hit the key shots and made the necessary stops to win. I cannot imagine us not playing well against UNC for this game but then again..

UNC's play is a bit strange to describe, they have played really great a few times and also played like they don't know what to do in order win several games. I can't imagine them not bringing everything they have against us and we all know that Page will be the key for them. He was great last year and has been a negative surprise for them this year. If he's hot they will be difficult and if he's not we might beat them by 20 points.

The thing that worries me most is all the rebounders they have, what do they have over 6'10" about 5 players? They have many fouls to give against Okafor and we are somewhat limited in what we can give up. Its imperative that Okafor not pick up any silly fouls and if he does we will suffer.

I think we will reach another level or gear when necessary and I think we have more talent all around than UNC so............
Give em Hell boys.

ofc

This post was edited on 2/16 12:55 PM by gottagonow

 

[Heyman25]

UNC teams seem to take on the personality of their coach to a degree. He appears to be an "up and down" type of guy, and when he is down, he is just not into coaching as he should be. Same with the team, with the Pitt game Saturday a prime example. Let's just hope he is in a "down" state of mind Wednesday night. OFC

 

[timo0402]

Pretty spot on DJ, i mentioned in another thread, maybe prem board, but my main issue is the offensive glass for them (our defensive). If we can limit their offensive boards, we should win this game. that is their strongest attribute, and one they do the most damage to anyone else they play.

One thing, in recent years (since 82-50) is that we've gotten out to very slow starts against UNC at CIS. We've come back to win, but my hope here is that we come out knocking down shots early. Get the crowd over the top and see if we can put this one away early. I think we're going to come out extremely focused and with tons of energy, see if we can use that to blow the doors off early, like we did vs. ND.

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

Coming off a loss, and being embarrassed at that. Oh, they'll be ready, and UNC (much like Duke) plays to the level of the competition. And except for the ND game, we don't seem to play with as much intensity at home...hopefully it being UNC will take care of that.
We have to rebound well, stay out of serious foul trouble, and knock down fts (because it'll probably come down to fts.)

OFC

 

[DukeDenver]

We are riding high at the moment. Hopefully the Crazies repeat their performance last game against the Irish. It really makes these frosh play with a sense of urgency when the crowd is up. You know Quinn loves it too.






Oh yeah, Justise. Just Justise.

 

[skysdad]

If we get a good size lead and have momentum keep the pedal to the medal and not let up till the final horn goes off. One more thing. Hit our free throws. OFC

 

[GTHC_ GTH!]

I know this is the rivalry and should expect Carolina to be up for the game and probably play decent.

But, we are the better team. At home. I think, if Duke jumps out early, Carolina folds after the way they have been playing lately. Duke is playing well right now. They are reminded me a bit of the 2010 team that played great the last 2 months of the season. Carolina is better than that Runner Up NIT team from 2010, but they aren't vintage Carolina (they haven't been since 2009 to be honest).

The key is just to be Duke. I think we win failry easily. At Carolina may be different.

 

[ioliva]

I like your analysis DJ but one think that I rarely do say is that we're just a much better team than UNC. Usually every year I expect a split, however we should win both games. They just haven't played that well, don't have the talent we have and just do not have the team that should be expected to be able to split us. I know the rivalry brings out the best in both teams but our guys should be disappointed not winning both games imo.

 

[kingbluedevil]

Duke wins the game but Paige gets 25 points. Amile Jefferson may get more time in this game because of Brice Johnson's game inside. I think if Johnson does not have a big game Carolina has no chance. Carolina is a very weak defensive rebounding team and Winslow and Okafor could have a lot of put backs.

 

[dbav]

Great analysis, thanks DJ. I can't wait for this one.

I am worried a bit about foul trouble in the post. They have a lot of bodies to throw out there and it only takes one poor decision for Okafor to get into a bad foul situation. If Plumlee and Amile can give some good minutes, then I think we handle them.

 

[stanleyduke]

The key to beating UNC is defensive rebounding. They struggle to make jumpers and get most of their easy shots through offensive rebounds. Got to box out and rebound. I think we will see a lot of MPIII to help on the defensive glass.

 

[CanuckChuck]

Great run down. As a Heel fan I'll add a couple comments.

CC

Originally posted by dukiejay:

1) I think we must establish Jahlil early. You know UNC is going to double, so Jah has to make the decision right away if he's going to the basket. Brice Johnson can cause some havoc as a weakside helper, but I don't see how Meeks can contain Jah.

CC> This key to me. How is Oak at passing out or finding the open man underneath? I feel like it will be a long night (for UNC) if they can't get some quality D out of Meeks one on one.


4) The freshmen cannot be rattled. Our freshmen aren't typical freshmen, but they're freshmen, nonetheless. And they haven't played in this *game* before. The intensity definitely rachets up a notch. It's important they feed off their teammates and the crowd, but at the same time that can also be a crutch.

CC> Always hoping for off nights.

For UNC, IMO.

3) UNC will need to make some outside shots, and ideally I think a few will have to come from someone not named Marcus Paige. I expect him to get some looks and knock them down....the question is who on their team is able to provide a second punch.

CC> Britt certainly can. I'm hoping Jackson and/or Berry can get hot.

Lastly, I do think we're the better team, but I don't think we're far and away better. If we don't play really well UNC can and will beat us. We're catching them at a time where they're not playing to their capabilities, but we've seen in the past how a Duke-UNC game brings out the best in both teams. Right now we're riding high(er), but that can all change in just 40 minutes.

It should be another fun one. Here's to hoping our boys come out on top.

CC> Totally agree except for that last line. I hope it's a fun one cause no matter what I think the outcome might be, I still gotta watch.

 

[dukiejay]

Okafor is pretty good passer....not great, but on a scale of 1 to 10 I'd say a seven. The key will be if Amile is timing out his cuts because if UNC doubles there might be some opportunities at the basket.

I just don't think Meeks can effectively handle Jahlil one-on-one. His size will help, but I think Jahlil is quicker and a much better athlete. But Johnson is an even better athlete, and his weakside help worries me if Jahlil doesn't commit right away.

I'm ready for the game to get here and to quit talking about it.

 

[CanuckChuck]

Originally posted by dukiejay:
But Johnson is an even better athlete, and his weakside help worries me if Jahlil doesn't commit right away.

This worries me too because 2 quick fouls on Johnson will have me setting the PVR and checking the results in the morning!

CC

 

[aah555]

(1) Okafor needs to stay out of early foul trouble

(2) Don't let Paige see a big basket early

(3) Protect the defensive glass

(4) Get back in transition

(5) Hit open 3s

IMO, UNC's not going to be able to defend Okafor one-on-one in the post. If they double, the key question will be whether guys like Matt Jones and Quinn Cook can hit open looks. UNC has the tools to beat Duke if we play a mediocre game, but I think it's hard to see UNC winning this if we make a reasonable percentage of our jumpers + limit UNC's second chance points. The one wild car is Paige -- who, with Sheed gone, may be a really challenging matchup.



This post was edited on 2/18 2:03 PM by aah555

 

[crazyduke3]

I think we need to for their offense through Meeks, J.P. and Justin. Make them beat us. Particularly Make J.P. take jump shots.

Maybe constant pressure on Marcus, put his conditioning to the test.

 

[timo0402]

Bold prediction- Got Grayson allen having his best game as a Duke player tonight. Multiple 3's and we're going to see a break away dunk. heard it here first.

 

[dbav]

Originally posted by timo0402:
Bold prediction- Got Grayson allen having his best game as a Duke player tonight. Multiple 3's and we're going to see a break away dunk. heard it here first.

I like this prediction.

 

[youngman42]

Originally posted by dukiejay:
Let's be honest, when the schedule comes out in August the first thing we all look for are the two dates of the Duke-UNC games. Well, this is as late as I can ever remember for the first one....but the excitement and lead up is just the same.

So what are the keys to the game for us?

1) I think we must establish Jahlil early. You know UNC is going to double, so Jah has to make the decision right away if he's going to the basket. Brice Johnson can cause some havoc as a weakside helper, but I don't see how Meeks can contain Jah.

2) Defend, but don't extend. I know, a cute little play on words, but I think it's the truth. UNC does not shoot the ball well. That doesn't mean they aren't capable, but their season-to-date shooting numbers leave a lot to be desired. They have a few guys who can get into the lane though.

3) Kind of to #2's point, but we have to control the defensive glass. If we limit UNC's second chances we're going to be in pretty good shape. But what UNC likes to do is get into the lane and draw helpers. It puts teams/players out of position and makes them deadly on the offensive boards. The less we're having to leave men the better.

4) The freshmen cannot be rattled. Our freshmen aren't typical freshmen, but they're freshmen, nonetheless. And they haven't played in this *game* before. The intensity definitely rachets up a notch. It's important they feed off their teammates and the crowd, but at the same time that can also be a crutch.

For UNC, IMO.

1) I think they need Paige to have a big game. He's their big equalizer....and we all know he's a very good player. He's struggled some this season, but this is the kind of game that could catapult him for the rest of year.

2) I mentioned above that one of the keys for us is protecting the defensive glass, but the offensive glass is huge for them. Johnson, Meeks, Hicks and Tokoto are all excellent rebounders of missed shots. We must contain/neutralize here, if we don't, any perceived advantage we might have coming in is negated.

3) UNC will need to make some outside shots, and ideally I think a few will have to come from someone not named Marcus Paige. I expect him to get some looks and knock them down....the question is who on their team is able to provide a second punch.

Lastly, I do think we're the better team, but I don't think we're far and away better. If we don't play really well UNC can and will beat us. We're catching them at a time where they're not playing to their capabilities, but we've seen in the past how a Duke-UNC game brings out the best in both teams. Right now we're riding high(er), but that can all change in just 40 minutes.

It should be another fun one. Here's to hoping our boys come out on top.

Very good write-up. Agree pretty much down the line. To that, I would add:

- To point 1) Not only must Duke establish Jah in the post and get the ball to him, and when double he must pass well out of it, but Duke's perimeter has to hit open 3s or it could be a long night.

- Winslow has to not settle for the 3 too often (he's too inconsistent) but if it goes out to him he has to drive and be smart on his drives (i.e., not get blocked as UNC is long and generally very good defensively).

- To point 2) K's "11" D (which is, defend inside the 3 point line) has to be used a great deal and, additionally, I think we need to utilize the zone a good bit. I'd like to see Plumlee in there as a twin-tower with Jah (they generally do very well together and given UNC's length, I think it would be an effective D). If we go 'small' that may be effective to some degree but it could open things up for UNC inside.

 

[stanleyduke]

Originally posted by crazyduke3:
I think we need to for their offense through Meeks, J.P. and Justin. Make them beat us. Particularly Make J.P. take jump shots.

Maybe constant pressure on Marcus, put his conditioning to the test.

Agree with this. Not sure if anyone remembers the first game against Duke Kendall Marshall played when UNC was red hot. As much as they could, Duke trapped Marshall as soon as he got past half court, which meant he wasn't able to make plays passing the ball. UNC's offense stalled and the good guys got the win.

 

[skysdad]

Make sure the officials get paid before the game.

OFC

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

For UNC, I believe Fats has the keys to the game.

OFC

 

[DukeSky85]

I had a dream last night Tokoto went on a break away dunk and tried to get fancy and Winslow came outta no where and threw it into the stands. So yeah that's going to happen

 

[Neners]

^So let it be written, so let it be done.

 

[DiehardDukeFan4Life]

I think the biggest keys are:

1) feeding Jah the ball inside so that it opens things up on the perimeter
2) rebounding
3) making free throws especially down the stretch
4) our freshman not getting rattled (which I don't expect them to get rattled)

 

[JCColsCane]

Battle!!! Battle!!! Battle!!!!!



JC-OFC

 

[JCColsCane]

Originally posted by timo0402:
Bold prediction- Got Grayson allen having his best game as a Duke player tonight. Multiple 3's and we're going to see a break away dunk. heard it here first.

timo, would like to have seen your prediction come true last night. When he got in you could tell he was ready, and he was very aggressive from the get-go! Problem is, he only played 4 minutes.
With just the way he started, I thought you were really on to something. I will be real disappointed if he doesn't play a lot on Saturday vs. Clemson.
Go Duke!!


JC-OFC

 

[timo0402]

I didnt even think it was that bold. I held out, he's been playing so well in practice, that i thought it would break out last night. He was ready. I thought he attacked the basket well all night, his drive to the left was a thing of beauty, just didnt drop. Thought his defense was solid too, kind of upset he didnt get in when we were struggling on defense in the 2nd half. But you can't argue when a game like that you have to have, you go with your horses.

He'll play a lot on Saturday. We have to play him. Saturday is going to be the toughest game of the year so far. I'm afraid the fans will be similar to GT game than the UNC/ND outputs.

Finally, unfortunately, my other "key to the game" was correct- we had to control the defensive glass- we did not and we played right into their hands the majority of the night.

Luckily we have a guy named Tyus Jones, and they dont.

 

[BuckinElkin!!]

Looking back, one of the biggest keys and perhaps the biggest key was K going small.

That forced UNC to guard all 5 and stopped the double teaming of Okafor.

In turn, that opened things up and UNC could not handle Jones, Okafor, or Winslow down the stretch. Okafor scored at will the few times he touched it late, no one could stay in front of Jones, and Winslow had nice drives as well.

We also threw in a couple 3's late as well.

Big move on K's part I've not heard many speaking about.

 

[dukiejay]

K pretty much went with six guys last night in the second half. It was frustrating to an extent, but being that we won it totally paid off. And what I mean by that is looking at the grand scheme of things....this win is one we had to have, and once again we fought through mountains of adversity to get it.

We didn't play well, but we did what we've done all year save maybe one or two games....and that's that we continue to fight and press on when a stacked deck is in front of us.

It's way too early to tell and a lot can happen in the coming weeks, but this is one of those potential season-defying wins.

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

^plums and allen should get some good minutes on sat

 

[K-oach Q]

Yes, we need to do a better job getting some guys a breather in the second half. To many minutes for Quinn, Tyus, and Okafor. I don't think we can do that consistently...and if we are going to do it then a zone will help save some energy for down the stretch. I couldn't believe we didn't play any zone on top of the lack of substitutions last night.

We still won but I don't believe we can do those two things consistently and move forward. Especially the ACC tournamnet with the potential of playing 3 straight days.

 

[BuckinElkin!!]

I understand the concerns but one game isn't a trend, we did what we had to do to win the game.

Talking about going to zone, I'm not saying we should or shouldn't have, but its much harder to rebound out of a zone than man to man. That's probably the reason for no zone.

 

[dukiejay]

Originally posted by K-oach Q:
Yes, we need to do a better job getting some guys a breather in the second half. To many minutes for Quinn, Tyus, and Okafor. I don't think we can do that consistently...and if we are going to do it then a zone will help save some energy for down the stretch. I couldn't believe we didn't play any zone on top of the lack of substitutions last night.

We still won but I don't believe we can do those two things consistently and move forward. Especially the ACC tournamnet with the potential of playing 3 straight days.

I think the staff was worried about taking Jahlil out because of the ankle. K mentioned that in his presser. It was a delicate situation that if he came out and let it swell there was the chance he wouldn't have been able to go back in.

But yes, I agree the bench has to play more minutes, more consistently going forward. But this is hardly a trend. Going into last night only Quinn was playing more than 32 minutes per game.

As for the zone I have to think the staff was worried about rebounding. The argument against that could be that we struggled to rebound playing man so it couldn't get any worse....but I think K went with the percentages.

 

[crazyduke3]

Pretty disappointing that K didn't trust Grayson or marshall last night. Yes we won, but would the second half been such a struggle if some of our other guys got a chance? Matt struggled quite a bit in the second half and Tyus was just dead beat tired for a lot of the game. Grayson would have been a nice change up. Makes you wonder going forward in big games will we only see 6 players again. Last night would have been a great chance to give Grayson some serious experience and development.

 

[aah555]

Originally posted by BuckinElkin!!:

I understand the concerns but one game isn't a trend, we did what we had to do to win the game.

Talking about going to zone, I'm not saying we should or shouldn't have, but its much harder to rebound out of a zone than man to man. That's probably the reason for no zone.

To be fair, I honestly don't think we could have rebounded any worse than we did in the 2nd half (i don't have the 2nd half stats, but I think UNC must have rebounded about 50-60% of their misses in that half). I think the problem was that Jahlil was getting drawn out of the paint on screen-and-rolls, and didn't have the quickness / mobility after the ankle injury to get back into position to rebound --- and, with Okafor out of the lane, UNC's size / athleticism at the other positions really showed. With how Okafor was moving and how UNC was shooting, a zone seemed the obvious choice. My guess is we didn't go to the zone b/c, in the end of the day, K wants this to be a man-to-man team come March -- and, with that in mind, he seems to have made the decision that we were going to win or lose this game playing man.

 

[JCColsCane]

Originally posted by crazyduke3:
Pretty disappointing that K didn't trust Grayson or marshall last night. Yes we won, but would the second half been such a struggle if some of our other guys got a chance? Matt struggled quite a bit in the second half and Tyus was just dead beat tired for a lot of the game. Grayson would have been a nice change up. Makes you wonder going forward in big games will we only see 6 players again. Last night would have been a great chance to give Grayson some serious experience and development.

crazy, agree with you totally, especially about Grayson. He really looked like he was locked in for the 4 minutes he got to play. Really don't understand it either, but it's K's call.
Carolina played 9, and their 9th man had almost twice the time of Marshall and 3 times of Grayson. Hopefully they will get more time before the Tournaments, as we are only an injury (Jah) away from forced time.
God forbid, if Tyus, Quinn, or Matt go down, it would be nice to have a little more game time under their belts.
Go Duke!!


JC-OFC

 

[dukiejay]

Originally posted by crazyduke3:
Pretty disappointing that K didn't trust Grayson or marshall last night. Yes we won, but would the second half been such a struggle if some of our other guys got a chance? Matt struggled quite a bit in the second half and Tyus was just dead beat tired for a lot of the game. Grayson would have been a nice change up. Makes you wonder going forward in big games will we only see 6 players again. Last night would have been a great chance to give Grayson some serious experience and development.

Honestly, I don't think it's a lack of trust. It's going with your horses. Tyus was tired, but look what he did.

Again, if last night was a trend then I think people would be entitled to more concern.

 

[timo0402]

I thought Grayson could have played more in the second half, for the reasons stated above, that we weren't playing well. that being said, K trusted his horses, the guys that got him there all year. tough to fault him on that.

If Grayson and marshall don't both play at least 10-15 min on saturday i'd be blown away shocked. Grayson is on the verge of busting out. Trust me on this one.