Originally posted by dukiejay:
The difference with this team, say compared to last year, is that we've proven with this current group our defense can be effective. Last year that wasn't the case. If it was a close game down the wire it typically wasn't going to end well.
Yes and no. I agree that last year's Duke team, by-in-large, played very poorly down the stretches of games. But, IMO, the biggest change this year has been on the offensive end -- where we've continued to score even when our defense breaks down. For instance, UVA scored or got to the line in 6 of their final 10 possessions. Last year, we would have lost b/c our offense tended not to score in those situations. This year, we won b/c we scored on our last 6 possessions -- 5 of which were 3s.
If you look at games like UNC and Va Tech as well, while it's true we did get final end-of-game stops, we still also gave up a lot of scoring opportunities late. We hardly locked them down.
I say all that to make the point that, while our defense is somewhat better this year, I think this year's group isn't that different from last year's group on that end of the ball. Indeed, as much as we define last year's squad based on how they played against Mercer, reality is that it was a team that also had a lot of good moments where it looked as if it's defense was coming around -- whether it be how they locked up a very good Michigan team pre-garbage time, held a couple ACC teams under 50, etc. etc. However, it was flawed on that end of the ball -- as this year's team is -- and I just don't think we're going to suddenly start getting good teams to turn the ball over like Clemson or Wake did in our building.
I don't think we're going to have a repeat of a Mercer / Lehigh type situation b/c (i) we're going to have a higher seed; and (ii) in the end of the day, I don't think it's possible for a mid-major team to contain our frontline -- particularly Okafor. He'll get whatever bigs they have in foul trouble quickly, and will basically be able to score at will if need be. But, on the defensive end, I think it will depend entirely on who we're playing. Like last year, there are certain squads we can defend pretty well -- and there are others that will give us difficulties. I don't think this group is going to be any different.