Bagley says he should be the No. 1 pick
- Thread starter DukeRulesBasketball
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I'm kind of confused why he has become an afterthought. Isn't he exactly what an NBA big should be these days?
Yeah, it's almost like Bagley is a 4-year senior and has wasted all of his potential in college.
For me it started when scouts marveled at Bamba's 14 made 3-pointers and they stated he would be a great 3-point shooter in the NBA. They didn't say he only made 28% from 3 in college. Then, they state Bagley's weakness is shooting even though he made 40% from 3. Yes, I get it; it's all guesses and predictions but I wouldn't list Bamba's strength as Bagley's weakness.
For me it started when scouts marveled at Bamba's 14 made 3-pointers and they stated he would be a great 3-point shooter in the NBA. They didn't say he only made 28% from 3 in college. Then, they state Bagley's weakness is shooting even though he made 40% from 3. Yes, I get it; it's all guesses and predictions but I wouldn't list Bamba's strength as Bagley's weakness.
From what I’ve heard. Bagkey is seen as a tweener. Not skilled enough on the perimeter to play 4 but not strong enough or with enough defensive IQ to play center.
Many teams don’t trust his 3-point numbers...FT% is bad which has been a good indicator or 3-point %.
Duke had to play zone specifically because of his lack of awareness.
He is also all left hand.
If Bagley gets a 3-point shot or learns to play defense...he could be great. If not...he’s a good numbers / bad team guy
Many teams don’t trust his 3-point numbers...FT% is bad which has been a good indicator or 3-point %.
Duke had to play zone specifically because of his lack of awareness.
He is also all left hand.
If Bagley gets a 3-point shot or learns to play defense...he could be great. If not...he’s a good numbers / bad team guy
Any team that passes on Marvin is making a big mistake.
He was playing with NBA guys in highschool and being mentioned in the same breath with them in summer league. Played amazing for his one year in college. Has all the tools and a super star second jump that you can't teach. Defense is completely optional in the NBA. I just don't get it.
It’s because he’s a tweener he’s not going number one.
People say the NBA don’t play defense but look at the fives left in the league. Bagley needs to show more physicality and his ability to play with in a team, mainly when not to take a bad shot read the double teams and pass out.
Mo. Shot up the draft boards because his defense and his offensive game is showing he has more room to grow.
Bagley has to show he can do more then score and jump
People say the NBA don’t play defense but look at the fives left in the league. Bagley needs to show more physicality and his ability to play with in a team, mainly when not to take a bad shot read the double teams and pass out.
Mo. Shot up the draft boards because his defense and his offensive game is showing he has more room to grow.
Bagley has to show he can do more then score and jump
If I had the first pick I'd take Bagley because five years from now he's going to be one of the better players in the league if he gets with the right team.
Bagley as long as he stays healthy is going to be Special like Tatum, BOOK IT. Ingram is going to keep getting better and Allen will have a successful 10+ years playing career in the NBA
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I am a Heels fan but Bagley is the best player available and by far. I don't even know why this is up for debate. He is a special talent in my eyes.
He's probably going to be a really good nba player. I don't think anyone is disputing that. I think it's silly that he makes a statement that goes public about where he'll be selected. It's not like he's falling out of the top ten.
He has several weaknesses. He isn't strong, only goes left, and not that good defensively. Yet he's still a top 5 pick. I think he will be fine.
He has several weaknesses. He isn't strong, only goes left, and not that good defensively. Yet he's still a top 5 pick. I think he will be fine.
He’s not your prototype center and he’s not exactly a stretch four. In case y’all forgot it’s the NBA your average shooting guard is 6’7” and Bagley won’t be the tallest on the court either. He has to learn to play physical
He is a great offensive talent no arguement there. He also isn’t going to switch in the NBA out to guard the perimeter guards are taller stronger and more versatile. Check NBA scouting reports on Bagley you will find no arguement on his weaknesses that they mention. Imo I take Carter more physically read and more well rounded on both ends of the court.
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The modern NBA looks for 4/5 tweeners. Bagley will be a 4 who can play 5 in a small lineup. Just look at the teams that made the conference finals. Draymond, Love, and Horford all spend time at the 4 and the 5. None of those matchups seem tilted against Bagley in any area but experience.
Throw in the Rockets and he spends the whole series at the 4 against Ryan Anderson and PJ Tucker. His athleticism also gives him the ability to switch more screens than most people.
That said, I don’t think he’s far enough ahead of Ayton to draft regardless of team need.
Throw in the Rockets and he spends the whole series at the 4 against Ryan Anderson and PJ Tucker. His athleticism also gives him the ability to switch more screens than most people.
That said, I don’t think he’s far enough ahead of Ayton to draft regardless of team need.
His ft’s got worlds better at the end. His horrendous start is why his overall% is low. I think he’ll be a decent 3 point shooter. As much as I’d love to see him go #1, I don’t think it’ll matter too much. I kept saying Tatum was better than fultz and ball last year, and couldn’t believe he was so low. There were even points where josh Jackson was seen as the better prospect. We all know how it worked out.
Duke fans raved about Okafor in the Nba too. He would’ve been great in another era but his timing was bad.
Marvin in theory has a better build for what the nba wants and has some range. That, along with his amazing athletic gifts and potential to improve in weak areas has him as almost a top 4 lock...even in an NBA that is craving wings. It’s not like he’s considered a 2nd rounder.
Around him is a physical specimen who actually is more impressive, a wing who has accomplished things no one else has in Europe and sees the game well and the exact modern NBA big who does play physical, blocks shots and projects better at 3s.
Bagley will put up numbers immediately and is almost guaranteed to be top 2 for ROTY but will his team get better or just have someone new on their roster putting up points?
Marvin in theory has a better build for what the nba wants and has some range. That, along with his amazing athletic gifts and potential to improve in weak areas has him as almost a top 4 lock...even in an NBA that is craving wings. It’s not like he’s considered a 2nd rounder.
Around him is a physical specimen who actually is more impressive, a wing who has accomplished things no one else has in Europe and sees the game well and the exact modern NBA big who does play physical, blocks shots and projects better at 3s.
Bagley will put up numbers immediately and is almost guaranteed to be top 2 for ROTY but will his team get better or just have someone new on their roster putting up points?
Got to remember he is 19 years old. At that age it's natural to have weaknesses compared to NBA talent. He has some natural talents you can't teach like the ability to get up and down the court and timing on rebounds.
On offense, sure. But not on D.
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NBA bigs, both PF and C, simply have to defend and rebound at a high level. Any offense is great, but ultimately secondary. Anthony Davis gets a lot of pub for his scoring, but he rebounds at a high level and is a great defender. He doesn't win DMVP or make all defensive teams, but make no mistake, he protects the rim.
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Bagley doesn't. He rebounds well, so he's got that going for him. But he's a horrible defender. And high level NBA bigs simply cannot be bad on D.
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Take KAT and Oak. Kat isn't a great defender. But he's OK. Oak is a bad defender, and he's going to be lucky to get many more contracts in the NBA. Bigs hav eto defend to day. I cannot stress that enough. Jackson, who many here dismiss, displayed near elite defensive instincts. He fouls too much, but those are sins of aggression, and the NBA can work with that. H'll learn as he gets more experience.
Further, a lot of Bags's offensive success seemed to derive from his athleticism. He won't have such a large advantage in that area in the pros. Bags is a Melo like player who just wantsto score, and let the plebes do everything else.
Bamba has the highest bust potential of any of the top 5-6 players, excluding only possibly Porter and his back issues.
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Bamba COULD be an elite defender and rebounder. Heck, he SHOULD be an elite defender and rebounder. He COULD and SHOULD be another Rudy Gobert. If Bamba would focus on, and work toward, replicating Gobert's game, Bamba would be an elite player. On offense, he'd get enough lobs, putbacks, and otherwise garbage buckets to help his team, whoever that turns out to be, compete for NBA titles for the better part of a decade (though not for a few years).
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But I'm afraid he sees himself as another Dirk, or, god forbid, another Durant. Not that there is anything wrong with either player. But Bamba is delusional if he thinks he can approach the offensive prowess of either player. It would be bad enough if Bamba thought he could approach Davis's level of offensive output.
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He can't. Bamba needs to stay in his lane. I'm afraid he has no genuine interest in focusing on D. I saw in the All Star games last year, and in college all the time, he's a minus rebounder given his athletic gifts. He doesn't anticipate where the rebound will come off, and he doesn't rebound outside his area AT ALL. He's got better defensive instincts, IQ, and effort than Bags, but If Bags had Bamba's body, Bags would be getting 20 boards a game, and I'm not at all kidding.
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Every time I hear Bamba talk about his game, I get worried. Even if he develops into an above average offensive player (though by no means elite, he's too far away on that front), I'm worried it will come at the cost of defensive development.
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Bamba needs to focus on being Gobert or Bill Russell (on O and D). If he'll do that, Bamba will be one of the elite players in the NBA purely on how he can control the game on Defense.
First, I think you're selling Bagley really short if you think he has the attitude that "the plebes" can do all the non-scoring. He never showed this attitude. He had the highest motor on the team. His defense was more a lack of experience in a team setting, than a lack of effort.
Second, here are the starters at his position for the playoff teams this year. Pretty sure he can hang with almost all of them right now.
Draymond Green
Kevin Love
Al Horford
Ryan Anderson
Dario Saric
Serge Ibaka
Derrick Favors
Anthony Davis
John Henson
Myles Turner
James Johnson
Otto Porter
Al-Farouq Aminu
Melo
Tahj Gibson
LaMarcus Aldridge
But Bamba made 14 3's in college tho and experts think he will be a taller Steph Curry in the NBA
It's odd. That's more than Ayton, who I've also heard them talk about his ability to step out and make a 3, but less than Carter or Bagley. And at a lower % too...
I think that Bamba has the highest ceiling in this draft. I've thought that for 2 years now. His size, length, general intelligence/IQ, and athleticism are insane.
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But he's the furthest from his ceiling of anyone in the top 10. And his current floor is the lowest of that group as well.
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And, to repeat, I'm most worried about his attitude. Not in a behavioral or chemistry aspect. But he just seems to have the most skewed vision of his abilities and future of any player in recent memory.
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He's a guy that should focus, overwhelmingly, on X.
But he's shown every intention of focusing on Y.
I think Bagley should focus on D. He will get more than enough lobs, stick backs and easy post ups that just by applying his motor he will get 15+ per night without even refining his post moves or expanding his perimeter shot. If he puts full focus on D, trying to learn with 100% focus, much the way a catcher in baseball's first job is defense first and managing the staff... The OFFENSE will be there by just applying his motor.
Wendell has "true" post moves. A variety of weapons down low and a better perimeter J. I don't want to say he will be better than Marvin... It will be close though! And as of now he is a much better defender than MB35...
It will come down to who works harder out of the two.. They both could be perennial stars. But they have to work very hard.
There are many players of similar skills to these two, some are just putting in countless hours perfecting their craft and adding tools to their tool belt.
JJ Redick is the Pro's Pro... Just works his butt off and it shows. "You have never arrived... You are always becoming." JJ to the team preseason 2015-16 (I believe it was that year)
Wendell has "true" post moves. A variety of weapons down low and a better perimeter J. I don't want to say he will be better than Marvin... It will be close though! And as of now he is a much better defender than MB35...
It will come down to who works harder out of the two.. They both could be perennial stars. But they have to work very hard.
There are many players of similar skills to these two, some are just putting in countless hours perfecting their craft and adding tools to their tool belt.
JJ Redick is the Pro's Pro... Just works his butt off and it shows. "You have never arrived... You are always becoming." JJ to the team preseason 2015-16 (I believe it was that year)
Plus, old school "low post moves" are less and less valuable. Routine game play will improve Bagley's face up game, and it will do the same wrt ball handling/driving. He does need to spend time on FT and perimeter shooting.
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But if his Defense doesn't dramatically improve.........
Well, the improvement of his D will be the difference between future contracts approaching the max, or the veteran exemption. Seriously.
A lot of the starters on that list were on playoff teams because there have to be 8 in each conf. So, more than half the starting PFs (16 of 30 teams) make the playoffs. Further, Paul George was more of a PF than Melo, and I think George would be rather more of a challenge to Bags than Melo's broken down tail (Davis is more PF than C at this point as well, yikes). Even further, most of those PFs played on teams with no chance to win more than 1-2 games in the series. This Playoff season featured the most non-competitive series in league history.
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Then you get to "outliers." Sure, the nominal PF on LBJ's team isn't that impressive. But with a guy like LBJ, roles are so specialized that it is hard to compare, and LBJ does a lot of the heavy lifting across the box score. On a team that was swept.
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And Bags would be a HORRIBLE fit on the GSW. They don't need more offense, especially if it is crowding the paint. They desire floor spacing and versatile defense. Bags might be "better" than some of those PFs you listed, but very few of the competitive teams would take Bags over their current starting PF over the next 2-4 years. Long term, sure.
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Teams in the lottery are bad, and they need long term assets like Bags.
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Bags should thank his stars that Ayton is going first. Phx is a dumpster fire, and the dumpster is full of used diapers. The Kings aren't much better, but they may have lucked into a good roster. Fox, Bags, and a healthy-ish Giles would be a talented team and good compliments to each other. A few years away, sure, but that is a good thing out west.
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The ATL and Memphis are also good fits. Orlando is the real quagmire in the league, IMO. Other teams may be "worse" over recent history, but those teams seem to have some vision, even if that vision is flawed. I see no plan in place in Orl.
I've seen experts say the same thing. Is this really true?
He looked pretty pure with that stroke. When he made them, it was nothing but net and great rotation. 39.7% for Bagley for the year on 50+ attempts. Granted Allen took 5 times as many and many of those were tougher looks, but he only shot 37% last season. I think Bagley has great potential as an outside shooter in the pros.
Clearly shooting 40% from 3 is good when it's everyone else and bad when it's Bagley.
Agreed. Most of Bagley's threes last year were the classic "No No No No...YES it went in" type of three's. But he was very efficient, even considering they were mostly wide open looks.
From what I've read...the concern is mainly due to the fact that he shot poorly from the FT line, apparently there is a direct correlation between those numbers and future professional shooting??
And also his mechanics, his shooting form isn't the purest, and the rotation on his ball is a bit off.
Plus, some of the other bigs shot approx. 40% from three while being at least nominally guarded for most of their attempts. Bags was left wide open on the perimeter. Even so, the FT percentage is apparently depressing his perceived value.
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IMHO, any "concerns" about his shooting are largely fabrications that various teams might be using to justify not picking him (though only 2-3 teams).
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The reality is, as I've said ad nauseum, BIGS HAVE TO PLAY SOLID DEFENSE. And, of the bigs projected at the top of the draft, Bags is by a wide margin the worst defender. Fans don't realize this, and base their projections and happiness based on offensive production. Pick a good offensive player and your fans are happy immediately. Pick a good defensive player, and your fans will get to see playoff games.
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But bad teams, AKA the ones at the top of the draft, are losers. And losers need to find ways to bump up fan support/interest. Fans want offensive output from their draftees, even if their are better pieces for a winning team available.
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Bags, while a good offensive player in college, mostly thrived by being more athletic (and longer) than college defenders. Pro defenders and rebounders might curtail some of his offensive output initially. But he'll be bad on D.
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Thus, some franchises might be laying the ground work to pass on Bags. Though not many.
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And, he could still go number 2 to the Kings. Bamba and Jackson are too similar to other bigs on their roster, and I still have concerns about Dokic, and I'm seeing whispers of those concerns elsewhere.
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Phoenix almost has to take Ayton. He's got physical gifts we've rarely seen. After that it gets wonky for the next 3-4 picks.
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IDGAF where Bags goes. As long as it isn't Orlando. I think concerns about his game, while valid, will ultimately be overcome by a kid I think will work hard on his body and game. A coach that "owns" him for more than a year can make him play D or sit him, which will do wonders for him. But Orl has no clear path forward, and no strategy or identity. I'm afraid he would flounder in a floundering organization.
All true on the defense, though I'm not as worried as most about his defense. Mainly due to the insane athleticism, and the fact that he was a junior in High School 13 months ago. He did show "flashes" of great man to man defense, mainly in the PK 80. I specifically remember the end of the Florida and Texas games, he locked down guys on the perimeter in crunch time, and K praised his ability "to guard any position" after those games. Definitely his biggest question mark though.
From what I've read...he's all but a lock to go #2 to the Kings. Good for him, but I'd prefer him to go #3 to Atlanta. I'd get to watch him every night, plus he would be the centerpiece. He's better than John Collins.
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