Amile

[chov1125]

I believe Amile's contributions are twofold. First, Amile's individual contribution will impact this team greatly. He is our leader, our glue guy, our guy that makes our team whole. If you said that this group's 2 biggest weaknesses were defense and rebounding, I don't think anyone would argue with you. Amile's two biggest contributions would be defense and rebounding. It is as easy to see as that. Secondly, he is an added body for purposes of depth. It may not seem all that important but going from a rotation of 5 to 6 or 6 to 7 (if you consider Jeter part of our rotation) is huge. It has been a consistent theme that this team is able to rebound and defend during half one, but struggle in half two as we begin to wear down. The lack of depth has impacted us physically and mentally. Amile will be huge for this group.

 

[DukeJim99]

Yes, you guys are correct. Last year heading into the tournament we had worse D than any team that had ever won it, according to KenPom. But, as aah555 notes, because he updates throughout the tourney, it appears now that our D wasn't so bad last year. KenPom is great, but not perfect.

My recollection is our O was #1 and our D was #40 on Kenpom when Amile went down. But the sample size was small and the competition was not impressive at that point, so it's hard to know how predictive that would be if Amile returned at 100% at some point this season.

 

[dukedevilz]

I distinctly remember being ranked 81st at some point in the early ACC Season last year. We held 8 of our 12 final opponents to under 60 points (Wisconsin had 63 and MSU had 61 - so almost 10 of our final 12 games), our defensive rankings certainly climbed a bit, but we were struggling early on in the season.

 

[pisgah101]

Our D is improving dramatically again this season as last.. We get Amile back our kenpom numbers will be where they need to

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

Well, we did just play two teams who were #71 and #233 in points per game. I want to be careful not to overstate our defense in those games. We were also held to an average of 17 points below our scoring average. So it seems that Louisville and UVA dictated their pace of play more than we dictated ours.

But I do think we are improving. I think we are helping better, staying in front of guys, and avoiding touch fouls that plagued us the first half of the season. I think our man defense has improved the most. Marshall has been a rock in the middle. The best thing Amile can bring is offensive rebounds, especially with our outside shooting. Not only are threes off a rebound most often uncontested, they are almost always in rhythm, and they are such a dagger to your opponent.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

And Amile would be such a good counter to Brice Johnson. That dude is good and he always is in position for defensive rebounding. I don't think we beat UNC this year without finding an answer for Johnson.

 

[chov1125]

Marshall has far exceeded any reasonable expectations for him this year, but the way he plays the pick and roll still bugs the crap out of me. His job is to force the dribbler out wide so the man defender can recover, but too often Marshall doesn't force the dribbler wide and then gets caught in no man's land where he's not able to block the dribbler if said dribbler attacks the rim and unable to get back to cover his own man.

 

[dukiejay]

We're clearly better on defense than what we were a month. The progress is significant. But even still, it's hard to imagine this team getting to where they need to be with the current personnel. We do need Amile.

We just have to hope he continues to get better and is able to make a valuable contribution this season.

 

[df64]

Even if Amile comes back and only plays 10 minutes a game that would be a huge improvement. Jeter is generally playing less than 5 a game and very inconsistent. 10 solid minutes from Amile would give both Marshal and Brandon some much needed breaks. More than 10 mpg would be a huge bonus. If Amile comes back and plays to his previous level, fantastic. But, even 10 solid minutes a game would be a significant improvement and should not be discounted.

 

[Jake1985]

All the talk of Amile coming back yet:
1, there's still pain in his foot
2, he's not practicing at speed
3, there is no time table for his return
4, and Staff (K) hasn't even said definite return

Just a lot of unknowns.

 

[jibip]

All the talk of Amile coming back yet:
1, there's still pain in his foot
2, he's not practicing at speed
3, there is no time table for his return
4, and Staff (K) hasn't even said definite return

Just a lot of unknowns.

I don't know what to think, but I'm with Jake on this. The insiders here seem to think K is being coy on this, but I doubt it. If Amile is still in pain, he's got to get that right first. I imagine he wants to play so bad, but I'm sure the docs and coaches know he can't risk more medical problems for a couple of games.

I don't know if he would even consider a medical redshirt if he stays out the rest of this year. But I'll appreciate whatever he decides to do.

 

[pisgah101]

Ryan was still "unable" to play when he came out against Miami too

 

[crazyduke3]

I'm starting to wonder why not redshirt. Especially if he doesn't return until March.

We'll see.

 

[DukeDenver]

Did anyone mention this sucks and we miss him?

 

[aah555]

I'm starting to wonder why not redshirt. Especially if he doesn't return until March.

We'll see.

I just don't see why Amile would want to come back for a 5th year. He's turning 23 this summer and undoubtedly has aspirations of at least trying to make the NBA as a glue guy. To do that, he's going to have to develop more of a perimeter game so that he can play more of a stretch 4 type role. He's not going to get any closer to that goal by returning to play the 5 position at Duke next year. The kid will have a degree and already has a NC ring -- which is clearly going to be his position b/c of Giles & Tatum. I just don't see it.

IMO, if he's healthy enough to play and contribute, he should play -- b/c the marginal impact he could have on this year's team is far greater than the impact he can have on next year's squad.

 

[pisgah101]

I wouldn't wanna redshirt... He'll be an NBA player I have no doubt. He's a lot farther along right now on every level than Lance Thomas was and Lance is in the league

 

[chov1125]

I wouldn't wanna redshirt... He'll be an NBA player I have no doubt. He's a lot farther along right now on every level than Lance Thomas was and Lance is in the league

I had no idea until Lance ended up on the Knicks, but man did he develop a reliable jump shot. And I am not just talking about elbow jumpers, Lance is consistent from NBA 3 pt range. Just blew my mind

 

[dukiejay]

Last week I was certain he was coming back soon....because that's what I was told. This same person seemed less confident when I was on campus this past weekend. And without me even suggesting anything, he kind of threw out the "I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at the redshirt option" for next season. It's not what I wanted to hear, but he did say it.

I still think he plays this season, though. But the longer this thing plays out (and we're already in mid-February) the more likely the possibility of looking at a redshirt becomes. That, of course, assumes it's something Amile would even consider.

 

[pisgah101]

IF he doesn't come back this season it tells me something very serious went wrong in recovery and rehab

 

[K-oach Q]

Saw an interview on one of the Duke networks with Jason Capel saying he didn't think Amile would be back. Says it's been too long and he has not been able, and is not conditioned to the level necessary.

I'd imagine he has some inside info so I'm going to guess he isn't coming back at this point.

 

[Showenuff]

This sucks and I miss him.

 

[bignish]

Think about our team next year though!

Thornton, Kennard, Tatum, Jefferson and Giles starting 5!

 

[dukiejay]

^ Hard to envision Matt not starting as a senior.

 

[aah555]

^ Hard to envision Matt not starting as a senior.

Do we know that Grayson is declaring with any degree of certainty? If Grayson's back (which I still think is at least a 40/60 or 30/70 stay/go proposition), I think Matt would clearly be coming off the bench. Though, as compared to Kennard, I agree that we'd probably have him play a somewhat similar role to the one he's playing this year.

 

[QC Dukie]

Think about our team next year though!

Thornton, Kennard, Tatum, Jefferson and Giles starting 5!

Is Allen coming off the bench?

OFC

 

[Devilinside]

IF he doesn't come back this season it tells me something very serious went wrong in recovery and rehab

Or, more probably, his injury is more serious than first envisioned. I doubt that any mistakes were made in rehab.

 

[pisgah101]

Or, more probably, his injury is more serious than first envisioned. I doubt that any mistakes were made in rehab.

Ehh

 

[aah555]

Ehh

At this point, I wonder whether they regret not operating. Usually avoiding surgery will reduce the recovery time -- but you obviously run the risk that the foot doesn't heal perfectly on its own. In the end of the day, I do wonder if this is a case where the decision to take the more conservative approach just hasn't worked out as well as the doctors had initially hoped.

 

[Crank_it_loud]

If he doesn't come back this season I'd fully expect surgery to solidify the area.

 

[pisgah101]

At this point, I wonder whether they regret not operating. Usually avoiding surgery will reduce the recovery time -- but you obviously run the risk that the foot doesn't heal perfectly on its own. In the end of the day, I do wonder if this is a case where the decision to take the more conservative approach just hasn't worked out as well as the doctors had initially hoped.

This exactly lol

 

[crazyduke3]

All of the below is opinion so that and a buck will get you a can of coke.

I highly doubt he'll have as good a career as Lance. I can see a lot of great reasons for amile to come back. I can see him and Giles manning the paint, and it could be very effective especially having his leadership.

Of course the kid should do what he wants, this is all one fans speculation.

 

[dukiejay]

I agree with crazy. Lance is the exception, not the rule. Just think....did anyone expect Lance to become the best player in the NBA from that starting five in 2010? Better yet, did anyone have him in their top three of that starting five? I know I sure as hell didn't. That's not to imply Amile can't do it, but I'm hardly expecting it happens.

 

[pisgah101]

I'm not expecting it either but I am expecting him to be in the league

 

[dukiejay]

Like Lance, I think he's capable....but like Lance was, I also think he's a longshot right now. He lacks a jumpshot, the ability to put the ball on the floor, he's slight for an NBA four and there's no way he's an NBA five- or three-man.

I love Amile as much as the next guy....but an NBA player at this time he's not.

 

[pisgah101]

He rebounds a lot better than lance and his low post O is too

 

[aah555]

Like Lance, I think he's capable....but like Lance was, I also think he's a longshot right now. He lacks a jumpshot, the ability to put the ball on the floor, he's slight for an NBA four and there's no way he's an NBA five- or three-man.

I love Amile as much as the next guy....but an NBA player at this time he's not.

I agree it's probably less than 50/50 he'll eventually hang onto spot. With that said, IMO, the real question is what improves his chances -- coming back to play the 5 position where we're primarily going to be asking him to hover around the rim and play a glue role or doing what Lance did -- go the D league and work on rounding out a perimeter oriented games. Also, even if the NBA doesn't work, it's not as if he'd suddenly be out of work. I think Amile's certainly got a chance to play abroad. When healthy, Amile's a pretty darn good player.

As for the comparisons to Lance, I would say that I do like his odds far better than I liked Lance's chances for a few reasons. First, while I don't know Lance's exact numbers, I'm pretty sure that Amile's wingspan is a few inches bigger than Lance's -- which IMO is pretty apparent when you compare how the two played in college. Amile's always been pretty adept at getting his shot up in the lane, a pretty solid shotblocker, and a pretty good rebounder (averaging 10+ this year and has been averaging 5+ since his soph. season), whereas Lance never really distinguished himself in any of these regards. I didn't realize this, but Lance didn't even 5 rpg. as a senior. Second, Amile's just has a lot better touch and feel within 7-8 feet than Lance ever had. Amile's been a bit limited by the amount of talent he's played with, but I think he's a guy who's always had more offensive ability than his numbers would suggest. I think Amile is helped by how the NBA has been downsizing. Clearly Amile's got to develop a jumper -- like Lance has done -- but I do think his height, length, quickness should make him a good defensive 4 in the NBA.

Again, I wouldn't put money on Amile making a roster. But, frankly, I like his chances a lot more than I liked either Lance or Miles. IMO, Amile's a lot better collegiate player than both of those guys.

 

[timo0402]

I think we should move away from the Lance comparisons and figure out what player in the NBA could be his ceiling- my thought is Tristan Thompson. High energy rebounder, strong multi positional defender. He doesn't have the form to knock down jumpers at this time but maybe he develops that more down the road but the first part is where he has to create a niche for himself. Guys like that can hang on, but in the NBA it comes down more to the right fit and organization.

 

[timo0402]

I agree it's probably less than 50/50 he'll eventually hang onto spot. With that said, IMO, the real question is what improves his chances -- coming back to play the 5 position where we're primarily going to be asking him to hover around the rim and play a glue role or doing what Lance did -- go the D league and work on rounding out a perimeter oriented games. Also, even if the NBA doesn't work, it's not as if he'd suddenly be out of work. I think Amile's certainly got a chance to play abroad. When healthy, Amile's a pretty darn good player.

As for the comparisons to Lance, I would say that I do like his odds far better than I liked Lance's chances for a few reasons. First, while I don't know Lance's exact numbers, I'm pretty sure that Amile's wingspan is a few inches bigger than Lance's -- which IMO is pretty apparent when you compare how the two played in college. Amile's always been pretty adept at getting his shot up in the lane and a pretty solid shotblocker / while Lance never distinguished himself in either regard. Second, Amile's just has a lot better touch and feel within 7-8 feet than Lance ever had. Amile's been a bit limited by the amount of talent he's played with, but I think he's a guy who's always had more offensive ability than his numbers would suggest. Third, I think Amile is helped by how the NBA has been downsizing. Clearly Amile's got to develop a jumper -- like Lance has done -- but I do think his height, length, quickness should make him a good defensive 4 in the NBA.

Again, I wouldn't put money on Amile making a roster. But, frankly, I like his chances a lot more than I liked either Lance or Miles. IMO, Amile's a lot better collegiate player than both of those guys.

Miles was drafted in the first round wasn't he? He's not a good comparison on chances bc miles had the ridiculous physical tools for a big man that you can't develop.

 

[aah555]

Miles was drafted in the first round wasn't he? He's not a good comparison on chances bc miles had the ridiculous physical tools for a big man that you can't develop.

Sure, I was just making the point that, at the same stage, we have 2 pretty recent examples of bigs who made the league despite showing far less than Amile has done in college. In Miles's case -- I knew he was athletic -- but I didn't realize he was going to test as the most athletic 6'10+ guy in NBA combine history. I also think you could throw in a guy like Shav, who managed to hang around despite terrible injury luck for a long time. Amile's not going to have smooth sailings in the NBA by any means -- and certainly the odds are against him. But, if you're a smart big guy who can play defense and plays with a good motor, there will be opportunities if you keep working. I said this last year as well -- but i like a kid like Amile's chances far better than I like, for instance, QCook ever making the NBA.

 

[liverpooty]

After tonight I pray he comes back and doesn't redshirt. I really think we're a final 4 team with him.