I'm definitely getting a little concerned and paranoid to say the least.
Predict the 2019 Class
- Thread starter What Would Jesus Do?
- Start date
I’m not really concerned about getting good players because I know Duke will, however I am curious as to why Duke is whiffing on so many top tier guys in this class.
We don’t even have an official visit scheduled with Stewart yet. Definitely weird.
Pisgah we can all hypothesize, but I would say Capel's exit has quite a bit to do with it. He probably was in the ear of a lot of these "near misses" last summer, and his departure makes perspective recruits uneasy.
Now its to the point where many of these guys are afraid to sign with Duke because they fear they won't be joining some fellow freshman (OAD types) in next year's class.
OFC
And so it goes....No one know whats really going on behind closed doors. The Duke "Bull Durham" site used to have a revolving door of potential up and coming sportswriters. However Matt Giles writes most all the articles now, and while he's an unabashed Duke fan he pulls no punches and writes from a realistic viewpoint....His latest:
https://balldurham.com/2018/09/25/duke-basketball-crystal-ball-harris/
OFC
https://balldurham.com/2018/09/25/duke-basketball-crystal-ball-harris/
OFC
They're coming to play for K of course, but I truly believe the YOUNGER Capel had a way of bonding w/these kids, more effective than any asst on staff....No hes not the coach, but made a near perfect liaison.
OFC
I think a lot of guys and their families who consider themselves to be future lottery picks have been watching/listening to the Duval's,Thornton's,Carters etc,who have complained about the way they we're used at Duke in that it did not help their status.Duke may not be the best choice for guys who want to be the main focus
when you are on a team with a bunch of other top talent, all of your strengths aren't going to be routinely displayed as other guys are getting theirs as well
duval 10ppg...allen 16ppg...trent 15ppg...carter 14ppg...bags 21ppg...they all got heavy minutes and plenty of opportunity
duval 10ppg...allen 16ppg...trent 15ppg...carter 14ppg...bags 21ppg...they all got heavy minutes and plenty of opportunity
Amen CD on the grapevine of negativity from others being a major contributor to this...
OFC
True points. But where some "possible" resentment can come into play is when the staff brings in another elite kid, late too, who reclassifies, and he gets a retired jersey, announces on espn, and everyone knows he is now the focal point.
It's one of two ways:
Either the rest of the team agrees, and willingly becomes high end side kicks, or the staff tells Bagley, "sure we want you, but you're not getting this jersey, and we will share the ball. Who ever is hot."
I can buy that....its either bonding as a unit or polarization....Lol, I don't seriously think we will be taking any more jerseys from the rafters anytime soon....
OFC
Maybe it’s time to go back to focusing on players who want to be great MULTY year players and get an outstanding education along with it. Duke has shown it can win with either philosophy
Well, we have this season here with multiple one and dones.
Talent doesn't seem to be a concern at all, nor does this bunch being entertaining. It's how well RJ, Cam, and Zion mesh with the rest of the team. Maybe they'll be enough shots to go around with these three, but if, and I say if, there's any jealousy out on the court, we will fall short.
K has his work cut out for him, but he makes enough $$ to figure it out.
Plus, for the two most vocal complainers, TD and Carter, the late addition of Bags radically altered the style of play (which ultimately negated TD's strengths), or reduced the role that one got to play (Carter being sidelined).
.
With only Carter on the team, the paint would have been more open. We'd have had 1 player down there, with his defender, instead of 2. Further, the switch to zone was bad for Carter and his friend Trent.
.
Neither complained at the time. Had we gone to the FF, or won the title (IMO a likelihood if we win 1-2 more regular season games, greatly improving our seeding) neither would have complained since. But we under achieved last season. They were personally negatively impacted. They haven't gone out of their way to criticize Duke or K or anything. All they have done is truthfully answer questions. We just don't like the answers.
See, there's the rub. "great multi-year" How realistic is that?
.
If by great, you mean that they spend 3+ years and have great careers in retrospect, then fine. But there will be some lean years (by our standards) as that happens.
.
If you want guys that are very good (but really, great) immediately, who also stay in college for 3+ years, then you are delusional. There aren't many Shane Battiers or Tyler Hanstravels out there. We'd love to get guys that are frosh all-conf, and regular all conf for the next 2 years after that. But you can't count on building such teams.
Solid post, and I think you're speaking for a lot of Duke fans(at least numerous ones I know) who have tried to analyze what precluded us from reaching the lofty heights most had predicted....
To your specific points I reiterate your opinion a double low post offense negated our SLASHERS, Trevon and Grayson from driving the lane near as frequently....Btw I think Carter's personal fouls were up because Bagley slacked off on the defensive end.Bagley was so offensively truly gifted on the one hand, yet he hurt us on D...
OFC
Last edited:
Guys, the reason for these struggles aren't rocket science.
.
We've got pretty good players who are highly likely to be on campus next season. The current HS class is pretty bad.
.
We are Duke fans first, and college basketball fans second. HS recruits, especially the top 50-100, are far more interested in NBA hoops. It isn't until late in their junior year, or even later, that they seriously look at college rosters. And a close look at Duke would scare some folks.
.
Are Brian Antoine or James or Moore better than AOC, Baker, and White? Who knows? Frankly, I think that a junior AOC is far and away the best player from that group. Baker might be pretty good after this upcoming year his own self. I think White is further behind, but will do a lot of the "little" things that will increase his value. So, of the 6 wings I listed, it is possible that we'll have the 2 best, and certainly 2 of the top 4, with our 2 already having year(s) of experience. Can't you all see why Antoine and James would be wary of that? They see themselves as OAD candidates, and at Duke there is a good chance they don't start. Further, I imagine that Duke (and Clemson) were wary of making James the starting PG, and UT wasn't.
.
As for bigs, seniors Bolden and Javin would loom large. Stewart and Hurt are no sure thing to start over either of our bigs. Stewart, as a frosh, is likely a rich man's version of Javin, being good at D and rebounding, but not that offensively gifted. But Javin will be a senior, and might be very effective. Certainly enough to give Stewart pause. Hurt is a gifted offensive player, no doubt, but that is less and less essential in bigs. He does have that face up ability, but he's likely to be a minus defender and rebounder initially. Again, he might not start at Duke. He could be a multi year player (he's so skinny), but there are programs where he could do that and start for 2 years. At the least, supposing that Stewart and/or Hurt come here and start, they'd be pushed for time.
.
Carey and Anthony would start, but they'd be worried about their roles.
.
If the road to PT looks clear in the spring, Carey would sign up.
.
As for Anthony, we are spending more time on him now than we were spending on Trevon Duval at the same point of their HS careers. If Tre Jones leaves (an occurrence that probably would only happen if we at least go to the FF), Duke would have a glaring hole at the PG slot, surrounded by talented wings and Fs. Such a season would probably open up one of the big man positions, attracting Carey.
.
While we aren't aggressive in pursuit of Anthony right now, he's a very pragmatic young man. If Duke is a great landing spot come May, he might come here. If Tre is still here, Anthony won't consider us, an it won't matter.
.
We've got pretty good players who are highly likely to be on campus next season. The current HS class is pretty bad.
.
We are Duke fans first, and college basketball fans second. HS recruits, especially the top 50-100, are far more interested in NBA hoops. It isn't until late in their junior year, or even later, that they seriously look at college rosters. And a close look at Duke would scare some folks.
.
Are Brian Antoine or James or Moore better than AOC, Baker, and White? Who knows? Frankly, I think that a junior AOC is far and away the best player from that group. Baker might be pretty good after this upcoming year his own self. I think White is further behind, but will do a lot of the "little" things that will increase his value. So, of the 6 wings I listed, it is possible that we'll have the 2 best, and certainly 2 of the top 4, with our 2 already having year(s) of experience. Can't you all see why Antoine and James would be wary of that? They see themselves as OAD candidates, and at Duke there is a good chance they don't start. Further, I imagine that Duke (and Clemson) were wary of making James the starting PG, and UT wasn't.
.
As for bigs, seniors Bolden and Javin would loom large. Stewart and Hurt are no sure thing to start over either of our bigs. Stewart, as a frosh, is likely a rich man's version of Javin, being good at D and rebounding, but not that offensively gifted. But Javin will be a senior, and might be very effective. Certainly enough to give Stewart pause. Hurt is a gifted offensive player, no doubt, but that is less and less essential in bigs. He does have that face up ability, but he's likely to be a minus defender and rebounder initially. Again, he might not start at Duke. He could be a multi year player (he's so skinny), but there are programs where he could do that and start for 2 years. At the least, supposing that Stewart and/or Hurt come here and start, they'd be pushed for time.
.
Carey and Anthony would start, but they'd be worried about their roles.
.
If the road to PT looks clear in the spring, Carey would sign up.
.
As for Anthony, we are spending more time on him now than we were spending on Trevon Duval at the same point of their HS careers. If Tre Jones leaves (an occurrence that probably would only happen if we at least go to the FF), Duke would have a glaring hole at the PG slot, surrounded by talented wings and Fs. Such a season would probably open up one of the big man positions, attracting Carey.
.
While we aren't aggressive in pursuit of Anthony right now, he's a very pragmatic young man. If Duke is a great landing spot come May, he might come here. If Tre is still here, Anthony won't consider us, an it won't matter.
I don't get why so many are saying if we don't get this guy or that guy that we might take a hit. Maybe so, but other than Kentucky, who else has been taking multiple one and done players?
Look at Gonzaga. Sure they haven't won a title, but they have been a strong program for quite a while, and could have won the title in 17. Few is doing an outstanding job out there, and folks better keep an eye out on them this season. They appear to be loaded.
Is it possible that K can do at least as good as them? I would like to think so.
Some think we are settling if we don't get a Stewart or Anthony, or whoever.
There's a lot of kids that play basketball, everyone we get doesn't have to be elite.
Look at Gonzaga. Sure they haven't won a title, but they have been a strong program for quite a while, and could have won the title in 17. Few is doing an outstanding job out there, and folks better keep an eye out on them this season. They appear to be loaded.
Is it possible that K can do at least as good as them? I would like to think so.
Some think we are settling if we don't get a Stewart or Anthony, or whoever.
There's a lot of kids that play basketball, everyone we get doesn't have to be elite.
Last edited:
I think the issue is that we're not even getting the attention of our top recruits, and that hasn't happened in a very long time. Guys not scheduling an official, or not showing up for one, when it's clear we'll have at least 3, and maybe even 4, starting positions open.
My guess is that the recent surge in complaints from players and their families is finally taking its toll on recruiting, especially w/o Capel. And regardless of what the pumpers say, the last 3 years have been pretty disappointing on the court relative to the talent on hand.
Next year's team, as is, would be fine. Just fine. ONLY fine. Best case scenario, with no top tier additions, would be Tre, AOC, Baker, White, Javin, and Bolden as the core. Robinson and Goldwire as solid backups.
.
That is a top 25 team, but not a top 10 team. We'd have no real chance to win the ACC, either regular season or the ACCT. We'd be at top 3-5 seed in our bracket of the NCAAT. But I don't think that team is a legit FF threat. By most evaluations, that is a solid team and a quality season. We'd consider such a season to be an abject failure, and a complete misery to watch.
.
That is why we are worried.
Some of those 3 starting slots would be taken. Frankly, there isn't a single SG in this class who would be better than a Jr. AOC. Not one. So, that is one slot. Baker or White could either one be starting caliber at WF, and possibly PF if we elect to go small.
I bet you that team is just as competitive or more so competitive than every team we’ve had since 15
So what we're saying is our 4 star players aren't as good as other teams 4 stars? That other programs kids develop better? See, I don't buy this. We are Duke, not West Alabama Tech. We should be able to get kids in here that are talented, and combined with the experience, should be contenders most years. We shouldn't have to be so reliant on 4 freshmen to contend.
My point is, we shouldn't have to have a certain kid, if the others work on their games. If not, then K and the staff should evaluate their ability to evaluate.
UVA, Villanova, and Kansas have been doing OK w/o 4 OAD's, so why can't we?
Yes that’s what I mean. Great in retrospect. I understand there may be some lean years mixed in by Duke standard but I can live with that. Miles Plumlee, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Amile Jefferson, Lance Thomas, Q Cook, Grayson Allen, Mason Plumlee, Andre Dawkins (if not for the tragedy would’ve been even a bigger impact), JJ Redick, Sheldon Williams etc etc etc
Now granted some of the aforementioned maybe leave early in current times but to me that’s ok. I think recently both Villanova and dare I say even UNC, have shown you can bring home a championship with guys who are very good but not considered lottery type talents and of course guys that would appreciate a top education.
I think it’s a blessing that Duke can adapt and thrive in either direction.
Every player on your list except Miles Plumlee and Andre Dawkins (who re-classed) was a Parade and/or McDonald's All-American in high school. These weren't Alex O'Connell/Jack White-level recruits. Many were ranked in the general Antoine/James level recruit that Duke is missing so far this class. Some were ranked much higher.
It's possible for a top recruit to stick around for four years when the NBA beckons. Happened with Grayson Allen. But it's certainly nothing to be counted on.
I think it's way too early to write off this class. But I also think it's disingenuous for posters to suggest that top talents in this class would not be able to start ahead of some of the incumbents Duke will return for 2020.
Duke is off to a slow recruiting start. Plenty of time and opportunity to turn it around. But I don't think we can deny that it needs to be turned around.
This. I'm all for developing guys and keeping them around mulitple years, but if you want things to go back to the "good old days" for Duke basketball, then we need to figure out a way to land 5 star guys AND keep them around multiple years. We will be returning a bunch of lower tiered recruits.
We will still be good next year without elite recruits, but none of our guys that will be back next year should have any comparison made to guys like Singler, Nolan, Scheyer, Grayson, Redick etc. Those were all 5 star/ McDonalds All-American guys.
And yes, without any top recruits, I think a ceiling would be put on our team next year, and that's even assuming AOC makes a massive leap and is an All-American caliber guy.
Mason Plumlee, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, Grayson, and a few others may have been 5 stars coming out of high school, but they didn't play like one their first season, and some until late in their careers. Singler had good stats his freshman season, but hustle separated him from a lot of guys. Maybe he would only play one season in today's time, who knows.
A guy on the premium site asked about Anthony Harris, the 4 star from Virginia, being a serviceable backup. We are spoiled as a fan base when a question like that is asked.
A guy on the premium site asked about Anthony Harris, the 4 star from Virginia, being a serviceable backup. We are spoiled as a fan base when a question like that is asked.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jon-scheyer-1.html
12.2 PPG, 3.3 reb, 1.2 assists, and 1.2 steals Scheyers' freshman year. Looks like the numbers of a lower-tiered 5 star guy to me.
Sure, he didn't set the world on fire, but we haven't had a freshman put up those kind of numbers and come back.....since Kyle Singler.
Our fan base would scoff at a kid like Scheyer wanting to be a one and done. That's more what I'm talking about. Jon wanted to come to Duke, and he wasn't a 4 year starter. The 5 stars now have a different mindset.
Most look at the place that fits their desire to get to the nba the best and quickest. Or they want to pair up. Can't blame them though.
I think people are mis-remembering Jon Scheyer's career arc a bit. As a freshman in 2007 he was second on the team in minutes played--behind Josh McRoberts but ahead of DeMarcus Nelson-and averaged 12.2 ppg.
As a sophomore he was the nominal sixth-man but played more minutes than starter Gerald Henderson and averaged 11.7 ppg. He was third on that team in minutes played, 11 minutes behind Singler.
He moved to point guard midway through his junior year and led Duke to the ACC Tournament title, winning the Everett Case Award as the tournament's outstanding player.
As a senior, he was the best player on an NCAA title team.
He got better, sure. But he was an impact player from day one.
Nolan Smith might be more of what people are looking for. A top-20 recruit, he averaged a modest 5.9 ppg as a freshman and became ACC POY and consensus first-team All-American as a senior.
And its doesn't seem that long ago. But Smith entered Duke more than a decade ago and the OAD culture has changed college basketball a lot since then.
I've compared Duke's recent reliance on OADs to the old joke about riding on the back of a tiger. You can't stay on and you can't get off. Lose three or four freshman starters every year and you need to replace them with comparable talents. Otherwise, you're opening yourself up to a gap year or two.
Again, I think it's way too early to assume that Duke isn't going to get those kinds of players in this class. But if they don't, a team led by DeLaurier, O'Connell, Baker and White looks like a gap year to me.
As a sophomore he was the nominal sixth-man but played more minutes than starter Gerald Henderson and averaged 11.7 ppg. He was third on that team in minutes played, 11 minutes behind Singler.
He moved to point guard midway through his junior year and led Duke to the ACC Tournament title, winning the Everett Case Award as the tournament's outstanding player.
As a senior, he was the best player on an NCAA title team.
He got better, sure. But he was an impact player from day one.
Nolan Smith might be more of what people are looking for. A top-20 recruit, he averaged a modest 5.9 ppg as a freshman and became ACC POY and consensus first-team All-American as a senior.
And its doesn't seem that long ago. But Smith entered Duke more than a decade ago and the OAD culture has changed college basketball a lot since then.
I've compared Duke's recent reliance on OADs to the old joke about riding on the back of a tiger. You can't stay on and you can't get off. Lose three or four freshman starters every year and you need to replace them with comparable talents. Otherwise, you're opening yourself up to a gap year or two.
Again, I think it's way too early to assume that Duke isn't going to get those kinds of players in this class. But if they don't, a team led by DeLaurier, O'Connell, Baker and White looks like a gap year to me.
I think our 4star SG in AOC would be an elite player as a junior. Probably a soph Tre Jones. Outside of that? We all like Baker and White. Do you expect them to be real difference makers? I think they are great as guys who are 4-6 level players. But that would be alongside 1-2 studs. Javin and Bolden?
.
I see a lot of top tier role players without a dynamic player capable of imposing his will on the other team.
.
These other 4star players you referenced have developed into that type of player. None of ours will have done so by next year. Further, that lineup I mentioned is a little light on athleticism. I fear what would happen to us on D.
.
Side note, this continues to be a huge problem on this, and other, Duke boards. Any discussion of potential future rosters and style of play focuses almost exclusively on offense.
.
Why is that? For the last 2 years, and maybe the last 3, we've had an offense capable of cutting down the nets. And then some. Sadly, that O has been coupled with a defense incapable of preventing the other team from scoring.
.
It is the same with my proposed "best case with no additions" roster. They'll be fine on O. AOC and Tre could be elite perimeter shooters, with Baker and White being pretty good as well. We'd be light on attacking the rim, but not really bad per se. But the defense played by that theoretical team would be our downfall in too many games in the regular season. The O would be good, but not elite. The D could be bad.
Let me ask a legitimate question, w/the following preface:The last couple of years are bound to have taken a toll on K. After all we did lose 17 games, didnt make the FF despite great expectations, and then this year's offseason of whining by players and/or parents wouldnt help anyone's stress level, especially at 71.
If he does foresee as you say, a possible "gap year," could you see him more likely to step down??? Also, how much of a role does Micki's input at home play in such a decision.
OFC
I don't pretend to have any insight into K's retirement timeline. I've been saying he'll coach for five more years since 2010.
It's been a long time since 1994-95 but it's no secret that Micki K put her foot down and made him take off enough time to recover from his back surgery.
As we say in the south, if Mama ain't happy, ain't nobody happy.
I figured he'd go till 75,coach likes a challenge,so he may like to see what he can do with a group of upper classmen mixed with a couple 4-5 stars.I'd be interested to see myself.
Also, K is a boomer, and a lot boomers don't like retirement. Even those with"enough" money often cite boredom or lack of direction. For a guy like K that must be in the extreme, given how driven and focused he is. Because it isn't about the money. He hasn't needed money for a decade or so.
