Lottery was tonight, and the Celts didn't luck into a top pick, sadly. The Suns are first, then the Kings, then Atlanta. I'll stop there, because Bags won't be on the board after pick 3 or 4. The ATL is a decent landing spot. They've got multiple picks, and are at the start of a long rebuild.
NBA Draft 2018
- Thread starter PatrickYates
- Start date
What about 5-7 for Carter and Luke Maye?
If Bagley goes to the Hawks, I just may purchase season tickets
Maye will go 11th to Charlotte
Selfishly, I would love to see Bagley go 4th to the Memphis Grizzlies. Think Marvin would excel here and playing with Mark Gasol would be great for Marvin. Also, out of the top 4 teams, Memphis fan support is amazing and much better than ATL, PHX or Sacramento and Marvin could own the town along with Penny Hardaway if UofM gets turned around.
My prediction is that Doncic will be more valuable than Bagley or Ayton over the next 15 years.
After more "study" and reflection, I'm now thinking that Bags goes 4th to Memphis, barring a trade. There is zero chance that he goes number 1. Zero. The Suns hired Don's NT coach as their next HC, and Ayton is both local and a superior prospect. I love Bags, but his spotty D is worrisome to NBA teams, and Ayton is a freak. 7-1, 250, athletic, skilled, and long. He's what the NBA wants out of its big men. Don looks like the versatile offensive wing that top teams need. Though I am worried about his D and athleticism. Which is why I think the Suns go Ayton.
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And the Kings won't take Bags. There are too many similar players on their team, and Don is too good a fit. Alongside Fox, Don would be a great back court mate.
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Frankly, Ayton to the Suns, and Don to the Kings makes a ton of sense.
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Bags to the Hawks? Not so much. They are very pleased with John Collins (of WFU) who the Hawks drafted last year. Bags is a very similar player. I think Bags will be a better player, but the Hawks would be wise to look for a more complimentary player. Jackson out of MSU would be a nice fit, as would Bamba. Frankly, seeing the Hawks pull a trade to move back a few spots to get Bamba and some other assets wouldn't shock me. But, if the Hawks stand pat, they'll probably take Jackson, who is a better fit alongside Collins, as well as being less likely than Bags to translate into immediate improvement. Given what the Sixers have done, the Hawks will embrace tanking, and their fans will accept it. Especially since the Falcons and Braves are doing so well right now. Less pressure to win soon.
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Which, IMHO, will work out well for Bags. He'd be great alongside Gasol with a healthy PG back at Memphis. Of all the teams in the lottery, this is likely his best fit. He'd have a short run where he could focus on what he's good at, while working on his weaknesses with out a lot of pressure to immediately improve on those areas (have fun answering questions about your D in Phx and Sac, guys). Though I'd hate to see him fall, watching Bags develop alongside Dennis Smith at Dallas would be fun. In a few years, with a few more assets, that team would be scary.
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Honestly, I think the top 2 are set in Ayton and Don. IDK what order, but Ayton is the likelier pick, even if Don isn't a shock pick. Similarly, I think the next 2 picks are set in Jackson and Bags. While Bags is a better player, team fit might drive the actual order. After that it gets wonky with a lot of variables. This might be a screwey draft.
Drafting 101: Take the best available player
Pretty sure the Miami heat don't regret taking Dwayne Wade, even though they already had Eddie Jones, their leading scorer from the previous 3 seasons.
15 year wager?? I think Doncic will be a bust and that either Ayton or Bagley will be a hall of famer.
I just don't see it in Doncic. We can revisit this in 2033.
^I honestly can't see Doncic being a bust. A 19 year-old kid is the leading scorer for Real Madrid. That blows my mind. Real Madrid is 30-3 in arguably the best league in the World not named the NBA. Doncic is putting up better numbers than Pau Gasol was putting up in 2001 - and Pau was almost 21 at the time. Nothing is a given, but he appears to have a very high ceiling.
I agree he won't be a "bust" but I'm not sold on his star power. I think his floor is that of a solid starter. His ceiling might be that of a Kyle Korver. Don's athletic limitations scare me.
I should have worded my comparison better, but that is also what I see. He won't be a bust, but I don't see him being a multi time all-star.
Bagley has a MUCH higher ceiling, but his floor is also much lower. If he can develop a reliable open 3 pt shot, and become an average defender, I think he will make a lot of all-star teams.
Apples and Oranges. Wade and Jones were wings, with one being able to play SF while the other played SG. Heck, they could play SG and PG if you needed them to. And teams need tons of quality guards and wings. Not so much with bigs.
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Bags is strictly a PF. Who needs a lot of work on defense.
Collins is strictly a PF. Who needs a lot of work on defense.
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And Bags isn't light years better than Jackson, or even Bamba for that matter. I think Bags is better, but I'm not sure how much better than Jackson he is. IMO the distance is close enough that the Hawks should take a player who compliments what they have.
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Further, I'm not sure what the trade value will be on either Bags or Collins in the short term. With Jackson (or a trade down to Bamba), the Hawks get a player that can play alongside of, rather than instead of, a player they currently have and with whom they are happy.
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If the Hawks weren't as bad as they are, I might agree with you. But whereas teams like the Kings and Suns have a few intriguing pieces, I'm not sure the Hawks do. Point being, they need a ton of help at multiple positions. Loading up on the least valuable position in the NBA (offensive minded big that struggles on D) isn't the same as loading up on Wings. Jackson can play some C, and possibly start there in today's NBA. Bags can't. Neither can Collins. They are mutually exclusive in today's NBA.
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Not that it matters. Falling one spot, while costing Bags some money, will land him in a position where I feel he's better suited to excel.
Agree. But the Kings need another athletic Big like they need a hole in their heads. They need guard and wing play. Frankly, Fox and Doncic make a great pairing. Don can make shots and handle some PG duties, freeing Fox up to attack the paint and utilize his athletic gifts. Bags would just add to the logjam they have in the post.
Also, we as a fan base need to admit that Bagley's defense issues are a huge problem. They were bad at Duke to the point where it eventually became impossible to hide him even using a zone. In the NBA, bigs simply have to be at least mediocre on D (see Oakafor,, J.). And he's a long, long way from being mediocre on D.
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He's our guy, and we love him, and we want him to succeed. But we've got to stop dancing around his weakness. Because it is glaring.
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He scored a lot in college because he was more athletic than his opponents. He was simply too quick to guard. But, as teams learned to simply push him away from the rim, be became less effective. Point being, Bags won't be able to physically overwhelm opponents in the NBA like he was in college, so he's likely to be less effective on O. Initially. Bags showed enough skill to demonstrate he'll likely be a very skilled player.
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So his O will be fine, at some point. Probably sooner rather than later. But his D was scary bad, and there is no way to schematically hide bigs in the NBA. He'll be a liability on that side for a few years, at least. That will scare some teams. Enough to not pick him? I doubt it. But if I already had an iffy defensive big, I wouldn't add Bags to my roster.
All fair, but I’m not worried about an 18 year old athletic freak figuring out how to at least be an average defender. Yeah he wasn’t great on defense this season, but that’s because he had always been able to dominate on his athleticism.
He has the length and the lateral quickness, just needs to put it all together and figure out first how to play positional defense. He can’t continue to get caught out of position, but again, he has ALL the physical attributes to be a lock down defender.
Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen don’t have the physical attributes to ever be plus defenders, just not enough length or quickness. But they can survive based on sheer mental toughness and knowing where to be on the court.
Bagley has the attributes, he just needs to become a smarter defender, which professional repetitions in practice should help. Just a year ago he was dunking on 16 year old High-school kids, that clearly didn't help him at all. He also held his own in the Drew-League, defensively and offensively.
Whoever he gets drafted by (mainly who that teams coach is) will play a major role in his development on the defensive end, he definitely needs a good coach.
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Bagley to Atlanta with Duval. Atlanta Has three picks in the first round.
The Kings would be a nice landing spot for Bagley next to Giles and they have revamps their whole strength and conditioning along with player development department. Giles raves about their process.
The Kings would be a nice landing spot for Bagley next to Giles and they have revamps their whole strength and conditioning along with player development department. Giles raves about their process.
I wish there was a “remind me” bot like on reddit. I’ll try and remember I made this claim.
I always favor the guy who can pass, understands team defense and displays the most consistent effort and fire. What keeps a guy like Manu playing so hard? Where does Marcus Smart’s fire come from? I just see Doncic doing more effort stuff and making guys around him better. I think Bagley and Ayton certainly have the ability to create offensr but might also be the kind of guys that will play soft after those fat checks start rolling in, especially on a bad team. They play hard in spurts, but when they’re tired or the y can still get a second contract going 60%, I see them coasting. Both bigs are going to give up tons of open threes for the first year.
Fair points, but both the guys you listed, Smart and Manu, were ELITE athletes. Smart still is, and Manu was. Manu was quick and long, IN ADDITION TO highly skilled. Smart is fast and strong and long. Smart doesn't have elite skill, but he's good enough. And that athleticism translates on D.
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That is why I think Ayton to the Suns and Doncic to the Kings works. The Kings have the defensive bigs, and wings, to negate Doncic's failings in that area. Whereas Doncic's offensive playmaking will help get the other guys some decent looks.
Giles and Bags are essentially mutually exclusive. They are both PFs. Considering that the Kings have a decent defensive C already in place, why would they take a guy in Bags who might be a mild upgrade over Giles in the short term.
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If the Kings pick Bags, that would be a clear signal that Giles is done. Since I don't think Giles is done, I have the Kings picking Doncic, who can alleviate their offensive woes somewhat.
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A lot of the Kings decision making will be driven by the fact that they don't own their pick next year.
Two things I think have been heavily overstated regarding Bagley.
1) His defensive liabilities
2) His status as a "tweener"
Regarding his defense, it's not a matter of physical skill. It's more learning to play defense as a team. This is an area where reclassifying probably hurt him, but given how hard he plays and his desire to get better, I think he'll figure it out quickly.
Regarding his position, I think he's perfect front court player in today's NBA. He can play 5 against small ball lineups or slide over to 4 against a traditional center. I don't think you take Marvin with the idea that he's your all the time center, but look at the lineups in the conference finals and tell me which team Marvin isn't a net positive against (year 2 or 3 Marvin, not Marvin today)
Boston: He would likely just matchup with Horford either at PF with Baynes in or small ball C.
Cleveland: Love has started at C for them some and I would take that matchup all day. Again, he could follow Love to PF when Thompson comes in or stay at 5 and be a huge mismatch on the offensive end.
Golden St: He would likely just matchup with Draymond either at 5 in small ball or 4 if they bring in another big.
Houston: He either plays C against Capela where he has another huge advantage on offense or PF against Ryan Anderson.
If you expand the teams out to conference semifinals, the only team you don't feel great about having Marvin against is New Orleans with a healthy Boogie, but that's a different animal.
So despite all the talk about "rim-protecting, elite rebounders" and "modern power forwards," if you look at the teams succeeding in the NBA right now, it's pretty easy to see where Marvin would fit in.
1) His defensive liabilities
2) His status as a "tweener"
Regarding his defense, it's not a matter of physical skill. It's more learning to play defense as a team. This is an area where reclassifying probably hurt him, but given how hard he plays and his desire to get better, I think he'll figure it out quickly.
Regarding his position, I think he's perfect front court player in today's NBA. He can play 5 against small ball lineups or slide over to 4 against a traditional center. I don't think you take Marvin with the idea that he's your all the time center, but look at the lineups in the conference finals and tell me which team Marvin isn't a net positive against (year 2 or 3 Marvin, not Marvin today)
Boston: He would likely just matchup with Horford either at PF with Baynes in or small ball C.
Cleveland: Love has started at C for them some and I would take that matchup all day. Again, he could follow Love to PF when Thompson comes in or stay at 5 and be a huge mismatch on the offensive end.
Golden St: He would likely just matchup with Draymond either at 5 in small ball or 4 if they bring in another big.
Houston: He either plays C against Capela where he has another huge advantage on offense or PF against Ryan Anderson.
If you expand the teams out to conference semifinals, the only team you don't feel great about having Marvin against is New Orleans with a healthy Boogie, but that's a different animal.
So despite all the talk about "rim-protecting, elite rebounders" and "modern power forwards," if you look at the teams succeeding in the NBA right now, it's pretty easy to see where Marvin would fit in.
Trade. I’m not sold on Luka and if Giles is in good shape like they are hoping the hawks have three first round picks in which if Bagley is the Hawks main target the Kings could trade one for two first round picks.
There is no doubt from anybody that Deandre Ayton is headed to Phoenix. There also is no true centers left in the league with the exception of Howard and the Lopez brothers. So two 6’10” pf could play on the court at the same time.
Also after looking at both the Hawks and the kings roster I’m not so sure the Hawks would choose Bagley given their lack of guards and seeing as how like the kings they have atleast six bigs under contract. Kings need offense just like the Hawks the difference will be that the Hawks have three first round picks to revamp their roster with talent. That’s why I can see the kings or Hawks shopping their picks.
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This.
I've said this over and over, I'm not at all worried about Marvin's defense at the NBA level. He has all the physical attributes that anyone could ever ask for, he just needs to figure out team defense and how to get in great position. You said it best, reclassifying hurt him in this regard, because in High-School he could always be out of position, and still swat the ball into the stands.
To me, he's a starting PF (right now) but has the PERFECT build and game to be a modern NBA small-ball center, which is what a lot of teams are dying to have.
I'm sorry, but I disagree. I think Bagley's defensive issues are glaring. His problem wasn't about learning to play team defense. His problems on D were effort and IQ. Lots of quality defenders have at least an instinct of what to do on D. Sure, they may have to learn the vagaries of their defensive assignments or rotations relative to whatever new scheme they are learning, but they at least have a sense of what to do. They can further cover for their mistakes with effort and hustle.
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Bags had little or no idea of what to do on D, and less of an inclination to try. He'll get a few blocks just because some smaller players will throw up a few dumb shots at point blank range, but he's not a cerebral defender who will analyze and anticipate what he should do on D. Which is a glaring problem IMO. It is exacerbated by him not having ideal length.
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What will be great for Bags on D is permanence. He's played at a different HS team, and then a college team each year for the last 3-4 years, barely spending more than 1 season on any team. He was so good on O, and so important to his coach's ability to win games, that he was allowed to play DESPITE his poor effort and effectiveness on D. Given his nature as a team jumper, he was never in place long enough to pick up defensive schemes, nor was he in place long enough for a coach to punish him for not playing D.
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If K knew he was getting 2-3 years out of Bags, he would have been yanked early, for the rest of the game, a couple of times this past year. That would have taught him to play D. But K was getting a OAD season from Bags, regardless, so K wisely just went Ride or Die. Punishing Bags for not playing D this year wouldn't have helped in future seasons, and would have reduced this year's team's chance of succeeding.
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But, for the first time since Bags entered HS, he's about to join a team that he can't bail on. His team will have him under contract for 3-4 years. And I feel like there will be a lot of punishments for defensive lapses in his future. Will he learn from them? I think so. But he's got a lot, and I mean A LOT of work to do on his defense until it rises to the level of "bad." He's horrific on D right now, and he's got to get to at least mediocre to be a star.
I do think Doncic will be the best rookie next year and probably the favorite to win ROY. I mean, he is tearing it up in the best Non-NBA league in the world. Plus he has been practicing against professionals since he was 13 years old.
Just 14 months ago, Bagley was playing against high-school kids. Ayton too. But I do believe that Bagley/Ayton have a higher ceiling, at least 1 will reach that ceiling. There are so many variables: coach, team fit, work ethic, that it's impossible to say which one becomes great.
Anybody realize the 76’s have six picks in this draft I can see a whole lot of trading happening draft night
Embiid, KAT, Rudy Gobert, and Hassan Whiteside beg to differ wrt True C. And Clint C in Utah, and Al Horford in Boston might look askance at that comment. They may not be traditional C's on offense, but all are traditional C's on defense.
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And, even in the PF/C hybrid players to which you refer, teams have only 1 on the court at once. No one runs out 2 of them at a time. Giles and Bags have too much overlap for a team with so many needs, that ALSO won't get its high lottery pick NEXT year.
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Now, Giles might be moved, which would open the path for Bags. Or the Kings might trade down. But Bags is a bad fit at the Kings and the Hawks.
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Not that it matters. He's a great fit in Memphis.
Team fit is a variable that is too often overlooked. Steph, Klay, Iggy, and Draymond are great because of each other. I think each one would be a lesser player if not for the others. Steph and Klay would still be pretty good, but Iggy would be a poor man's Demar Derozen, and Draymond might be out of the league.
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Ending up on teams that are bad fits can ruin all but the truly elite players, and there are less than 10-12 of those guys in the L at any given moment.
How valuable are some of those picks? Late first round, and second round, picks aren't that valuable. Given how talented the Sixers are, they'll need to move some of those picks, so the market might not be that high.
But they only play 1 at a time, and his backup is a true C. Horford and the Backup C rarely get on the court together.
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We can argue over what position guys play, be it PF or C. Stylistically, most bigs may be more of a face up PF now than they used to be. But teams only play 1 of them at a time. They don't need 2 of them.
Boston's standard starting lineup has Horford at PF and Baynes at C. They changed it against Cleveland because Love had been starting at 5 and they wanted Morris defending LeBron. Horforf and Baynes started 70 games together in the regular season.
Impressive. The young man is bright and has the kind of build that lets him run fluidly. Hard to pass on that potential.
IMO - Honest Assessment w/o Duke Glasses
Bags will go the Hawks and have an OK career - Not All Star Caliber but decent...Defensive issues will keep him off of the floor too much to be special..I still think he relies too much on superior athleticism and not enough on game IQ, Everyone is athletic in the NBA.. and he takes bad, often terrible shots in terms of game, time, score...
Carter will go to Chicago and be a 10 year pro. Strong enough and agile enough to be problem to guard for any big and willing to work on the boards and in the paint. Can also stretch the game with his shot... Al Horford is his Ceiling
Trent could be a Jamal Crawford type for 10-15 years in the league - 6th Man instant offense special...he is terrible on D so that will hinder his PT. Minnesota would be a great spot for him coming in for Wiggins or as their primary shooting threat when KAT gets the double. I was thinking San Antone but Pop will not tolerate sub par defensive effort.
Trevon is too careless with the ball, makes poor decisions, is a below average shooter and FT shooter, does not play smart and tries to be too showy and looks virtually lost on defense most of the time.. He is quick and athletic so will get a shot... I feel that after the combine he may fall into the top half of Round two. Goes to Denver at #40 as Emmanuel Mudiay version 2.0... without improvement, drastic and rapid, he is playing in Greece in 2021.
Grayson will impress at the combine but still slip to late 1st/ early 2nd because of "character issues" bulls*** created by the mongrels at ESPN who need a CBB villain every year. His tenacity and one on one driving ability will keep him in the league as long as he gets and stays healthy. I think there is a possibility that an Old School Coach will take him, knowing that the character stuff is not relevant to his play and game. Other option could be a team like Philly with a bunch of 2nd rounders takes him and lets JJ be his mentor for 1-2 seasons. Kerr may take a shot at him with Pick 28 in GS, if he thinks Klay is leaving, The Sixers and Celts could also be good landing spots early 2nd. His ceiling should be a Bobby Sura type career.
This Draft will be remembered as the Doncic Draft
Carter, Ayton, Lonnie Walker will all be better than their projections
Jackson, Sexton, Mitchell Robinson and Duval will be the flops
2nd Round Gems will be Jalen Brunson, Shake Milton, Caleb Martin and Jevon Carter
Bags will go the Hawks and have an OK career - Not All Star Caliber but decent...Defensive issues will keep him off of the floor too much to be special..I still think he relies too much on superior athleticism and not enough on game IQ, Everyone is athletic in the NBA.. and he takes bad, often terrible shots in terms of game, time, score...
Carter will go to Chicago and be a 10 year pro. Strong enough and agile enough to be problem to guard for any big and willing to work on the boards and in the paint. Can also stretch the game with his shot... Al Horford is his Ceiling
Trent could be a Jamal Crawford type for 10-15 years in the league - 6th Man instant offense special...he is terrible on D so that will hinder his PT. Minnesota would be a great spot for him coming in for Wiggins or as their primary shooting threat when KAT gets the double. I was thinking San Antone but Pop will not tolerate sub par defensive effort.
Trevon is too careless with the ball, makes poor decisions, is a below average shooter and FT shooter, does not play smart and tries to be too showy and looks virtually lost on defense most of the time.. He is quick and athletic so will get a shot... I feel that after the combine he may fall into the top half of Round two. Goes to Denver at #40 as Emmanuel Mudiay version 2.0... without improvement, drastic and rapid, he is playing in Greece in 2021.
Grayson will impress at the combine but still slip to late 1st/ early 2nd because of "character issues" bulls*** created by the mongrels at ESPN who need a CBB villain every year. His tenacity and one on one driving ability will keep him in the league as long as he gets and stays healthy. I think there is a possibility that an Old School Coach will take him, knowing that the character stuff is not relevant to his play and game. Other option could be a team like Philly with a bunch of 2nd rounders takes him and lets JJ be his mentor for 1-2 seasons. Kerr may take a shot at him with Pick 28 in GS, if he thinks Klay is leaving, The Sixers and Celts could also be good landing spots early 2nd. His ceiling should be a Bobby Sura type career.
This Draft will be remembered as the Doncic Draft
Carter, Ayton, Lonnie Walker will all be better than their projections
Jackson, Sexton, Mitchell Robinson and Duval will be the flops
2nd Round Gems will be Jalen Brunson, Shake Milton, Caleb Martin and Jevon Carter
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Bamba has an incredible future on the defensive end, he could easily be a future D-POY. I am definitely not sold that he will ever be anything on offense though.
Maybe Bagley's most impressive performance (among many) was the PK80 game against Texas. Bamba guarded him all game, and Bags went for a cool 34 and 15, won us the game down the stretch with a HUGE And-1 that also fouled out Bamba. That was a fun game, and an amazing matchup.
And I'm not sold that Bamba is realistic about what he can and should do on the court. He can and should be a Rudy Gobert type defender. I think Bamba sees himself as more of Dirk or Giannis type multi-faceted offensive player. Rather than focus on becoming a truly elite defender/rebounder (I'll come back to this), he seems more focused on improving his offense.
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Don't get me wrong, his O needs a lot of work. But he's a long, long way away from being a serious offensive threat. He's not that far away from being an elite defender, but I don't see the focus there that should be.
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Bamba should have been on D what Bags was on O. But he wasn't. Bamba was good on D, but he should have been nearly elite, even as a frosh. With his measurable and athleticism, getting the number of blocks he got last year was a given. It was almost accidental. Teams should have been scared to take the ball in side on TX last year, and they weren't.
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Further, and most damning in my eyes, Bamba doesn't rebound outside of his area for ish. Bags rebounded out of his area better, and so did Carter.
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Bamba has, IMO the highest ceiling in the draft. His length, athleticism, and general intelligence give him an absurd ceiling. But he's extremely far away on O, and much further away on D that people seem to realize.
Actually, Morris starts alongside Horford, with Banes off the bench. Banes played more vs Philly, and their own 7-1 center. Morris is listed at 6-9, but appears shorter than the 6-8 ish LBJ.
