***DUKE VS SYRACUSE OFFICIAL GAMEDAY THREAD***
- Thread starter krzyzewskiville
- Start date
Girard’s shooting is up across the board this year. Including today’s game, his overall FG% is 41.8 this year (vs 35.5 last year); his 3pt % is 43.3 (vs 33.3); his FT% is 88.5 (vs 78.0). I consider that substantial improvement.Worse than 2 for 13?
Not sure about starting 5 since minutes are all that matter but I see what you mean. It feels like Jeremy plays a lot better with Mark (and now AJ) on the floor. I don’t know but he doesn’t seem to fit in well when we do our small ball lineup but I could be wrong. His A/TO ratio the last two games has been impressive.
And his D was really good today along with Wendell. Great for his confidence after the end of the last game.
I think Roach coming off he bench was a wake up. I don’t expect the lineup to change when Keels returns . If anything AJ goes back to the bench. To all those who say K is getting bashed. Things happen for a reason. Going back to the starting line up is Roaches to take.
Dont see why AJ would go back to the bench though. If Roach stays in the starting lineup, the main reason would be for him to be one of our primary ball handlers. Which means the role for Keels/AJ would be 3&D. AJ clearly fills that role much better than Keels.
The poster showed several images. Mark Williams has to help, and he alters a shot by attempting a block, but his man gets a rebound and put back on the weak side.
But that's the symptom. The root cause is a defensive breakdown resulting from poor strategy.
So argues the poster.
I agree with this, if the premise is Mark just chases blocks which hurts rebounding.
When it comes to this specific play, kind of need to see the setup before the first screenshot to see where it really goes wrong.
Was this off a PnR that Moore and Roach handled poorly? Was this just Moore getting beat off the dribble?
i don’t know, I just don’t think defense is that much of an issue with this team. I think the biggest issue with this team is the offensive inconsistency. We have far too many long stretches of not getting good looks. That is why I think keeping Roach in the starting lineup should be the #1 priority. The ball movement has been fantastic since Keels went down.
Defense showing huge signs of improvement. Roach played great today on both ends of the floor. Moore is starting to inch closer to the player we saw prior to the covid pause. I hope we can keep just improving, learning, and getting better.
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I think our defense is improving but it isn't a strength relative to our offense, not statistically. Defensive efficiency around 40 (offensive efficiency 4th), nowhere near most other national championship contenders, and that's with a weaker (relatively) schedule that's going down.
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Not trying to hate on this dude on Twitter but it’s hard to tell from a series of pics and I’d think posting the vid would be just as easy as taking screen shots. I personally think two things -
1) yes, sometimes our guys can get beat off the dribble forcing us to recover/rotate, which isn’t uncommon for any team, but I don’t think it is necessarily a terrible thing when it funnels to Mark in the lane as long as his awareness is on point (similar to how Anthony Davis was doing it).
2) if the intent of the tweet was to act as a counter-point to Mark always chasing blocks then I somewhat disagree. There are way more examples of Mark jumping for a block when P5 (or someone else) was already contesting and it looks like Mark was going for a goal tend. Those almost always led to weak-side rebounds. I love Mark as he played right down the street in high school but he does often mistime his launch point - incredible for a guy who already gets a ton of blocks already.
It appears the purpose of the memo is that Coach K's system is outdated. I don't get that at all. I have no problem with defenders funneling their men into Mark Williams. That's classic help defense. The problem I have is when the weak side help isn't paying attention and moving over to protect the basket. I get that they are always protecting against the 3 pointer but that has nothing to do with protecting the basket in situations like this.
Because although he can shoot he’s not really a strong ball handler. He’s good but also Keels is a little bit better on defense. Moore seems to be better when not expecting to be the primary ball handler. Keels is a sg and AJ a small forward. Don’t really know who goes to the bench but Duke will need Roach to be a pg and keep attacking the lane . Ball movement was better because Moore was able to play off the ball.
I think Keels should be the 6th man; but obviously that won't happen as the coaches love him. We have 6 starters anyway so we can mix and match based on the opponent.
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The point Im making though is neither one should be a ball handler for this team. The whole point of keeping Roach in the starting lineup is Roach and Moore would be the 1A and 1B ball handlers. When Keels is in the game he is one of the main ball handlers and he is horrible in that role. His shot off the bounce is awful and he is a ball stopper.
What Im saying is our ball movement got better once Keels went down because Roach took over that 1A/1B role with Moore and the ball movement improved drastically.
We've seen what happens when we have the trio of Roach/Moore/Keels. Roach essentially becomes the 4th guy because Moore and Keels are the primary ball handlers and Paolo eats up a ton of shots.
All Im saying is the offense moves better with Moore and Roach as the two primary ball handlers and Paolo still eating up a ton of shots. So the question then becomes, who fits that 4th role better, Keels or AJ? AJ is the much better shooter, the ball doesnt stick in his hands, he is the much better rebounder, and the defensive difference is pretty minimal.
I can’t agree with the minimal defense. I think Keels is a better on ball defender and allows Duke to pressure more in man to man . AJ is a good shooter but still hasn’t put it all together yet since coming off injury . It’s a good problem but it’s going to be either Roach, Keels or AJ coming off the bench .
I mean offensively he has put it together more than Keels has. For the season per 40 AJ averages 2 more points while having a TS% 18% higher. Keels for the year has a TS% of 49%. Then if you go to conference play.
Keels:
minutes played: 200
points: 64
TS% 47%
AJ:
minutes played: 187
points: 83
TS%: 68%
Then when looking at the more advanced stats for the year
BPM: AJ is second on the team, Keels is 5th
WS/40: AJ is 3rd on the team, Keels is 7th
Net Rating on the season:
AJ: +32.6
Keels: +14
Net Rating in conference play
AJ: +33.5
Keels: +14.6
Pretty much everything shows AJ being the far more impactful player overall. I think with how well the ball moves offensively with Roach and Moore being the primary ball handlers, I think its a pretty easy decision to move Keels to the bench as the 6th man.
I respectfully disagree that the intent is to "funnel" their men into Mark, like it's a deliberate choice. My apologies if that's not what you meant.
The ball pressure/overplay extends our defense to the point where it makes it too vulnerable to lane penetration too often. That makes Mark too vulnerable as a help defender. Yes he blocks some shots but too often him making that commitment leaves us vulnerable on the defensive glass. But that isn't his fault. It's the ineffective, anachronistic overplay in the first place that's the primary problem, although I'll certainly concede we could make a better effort collectively in terms of defensive rebounding.
The defense sometimes works against inferior competition but it doesn't work well against good competition generally speaking. We don't generate enough turnovers against good teams consistently enough to justify the vulnerabilities to which it exposes us. How many times over the last 10 years have we watched games and complained about how many layups and back door cuts we give up?
Moreover, it is the single biggest factor in most of our NCAA Tournament losses since 2009, where we've given up 43 or more points in the 2nd half in 6 or 7 of those losses, 3 or 4 times giving up over 50, and one time giving up 65. 65! It's hard to score 65 points in one half against air. And the reason isn't bad luck. It's bad strategy, exacerbated by a thin bench.
I honestly didn't arrive at this place on my own. I've had this conversation with probably three dozen people over the years, a number of whom have basketball coaching experience. Two in particular at the collegiate level.
All that said, I do think it could work better than most years because we have some good athletes and defenders, with rim protection. And it's still evolving.
I hope like hell I'm wrong and by the end of the year we're a defensive juggernaut.
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My opinions have changed as the season has developed. I want AJ in the starting 5, and I want Keels as the 6 man. I didn't need to see those stats to know AJ is more efficient. He seems more patient and let's his offence come to him. His shooting stroke is smooth. Keels is more aggressive on offense which I don't not like, it just seems forced sometimes. He seems to have more of a shoot first mentality. I want my 6 man to have that mentality, not my starter. IMHO that doesn't apply with a player like Banchero. I wish Banchero would be more aggressive from the get go.
Yup- glad to be wrong here as I thought we would struggle with Keels out. Way to be a dickhead though funny guy
