I would argue a couple things.
1. UVA makes no sense to be highly wanted. The only “market” it plays into is DC. You already have Maryland in the BIG whatever. Is there thought Maryland might jump ship or be gently told “GTFO”? The only way it makes sense is 1. The SEC wants to get into the media market or 2. The SEC or Big whatever wants to placate the Presidents who show big concern about the perception of academics and can take a school with an ok athletic profile.
2. Do not understand Clemson having a seat on the bus for anything. Their athletic profile outside of football sucks and what media market does Clemson get you? Yes they have been recently good in football and bodes well for this culture of “we do not give two craps what you did more than 5 years ago”, but Clemson does not have a particularly noteworthy football profile outside of the last 8 years. Do you really want to throw so much money for a “Johnny come lately” when it is a pure gamble more than most that Clemson will still be elite 10 years from now? Because, again, they gotta take that extra step because all they can claim is the 76th biggest media market (which the SEC already has). Clemson has to leave for the BIG whatever because the SEC is fine in football competition. The BIG whatever really is Michigan and Ohio State, to a lesser degree Penn State, and then not much else.
3. Duke is more attractive then they get credit for. I know football is the main bus, but you cannot deny the list of top watched college basketball games (non tournament) every year is littered with Duke. Duke is arguably one of the three teams nationally who could comfortably be attractive for another conference because of basketball (and I would argue in another generation it would just be Duke and Kansas). Throw in the academics to help alleviate President’s fears in that regard. Then add the fact that Duke is clearly making a commitment to football locking down Elko and spending money on assistants. Finally, the Duke market is National. If you are solely looking at the NC market, Cheats are your bet. Duke is arguably the NJ and NYC markets…