What is your guess on team 3pt percent this year?

[Adamandchangin]

I say 37. My coaches always said you have to shoot better than 1/3 growing up. With our elite dribble drive and spacing I think 37
would be a great number. I know that is low if we shoot 40 percent and rebound like we can offensively we will be special.

 

[DukefanKY]

I don't know what the percentage will be, but I think it will be one of our lower "attempts per game" that we have had in a good while. I believe the majority of our points come from inside the free throw stripe. I may be wrong, but that is what I am expecting.

 

[AxeS24]

35-37. Last year was 37.

Offense will be fine. We will be just as efficient at 2s as we were last year (2nd in the country)

Rebounding I think will be fine. Our guards/wings wouldn't/couldn't rebound last year. I think all 5 starters can this year.

Point guard play will be much improved.

The season will boil down to how good we can get on defense.

 

[Showenuff]

33-34

 

[PatrickYates]

I think 35% is the line of demarcation, as it were. Above that, and we are more successful. If we approach 40%, we are a Final Four heavy favorite. Below 35%, and we are probably closer to the Elite 8 as a ceiling.

 

[dukesince91]

Low 30's. I think rebounding, and free-throw shooting will make or break us.

 

[HuffyJB]

I agree with the 35ish range, because I don't think there is any one shooter on the team as good as either Grayson or Trent from last year - and we know how streaky they could be. I think O'Connell has a chance to be one, but in a sort of secondary role. Baker might be the best shooter on the team, but he might not get the minutes/attempts. The freshmen starters are known as elite scorers, not necessarily elite shooters. But I think that shows why it won't be catastrophic: I don't think this team is going to have a problem getting baskets, even without "elite" outside shooting.

 

[PatrickYates]

I agree with the 35ish range, because I don't think there is any one shooter on the team as good as either Grayson or Trent from last year - and we know how streaky they could be. I think O'Connell has a chance to be one, but in a sort of secondary role. Baker might be the best shooter on the team, but he might not get the minutes/attempts. The freshmen starters are known as elite scorers, not necessarily elite shooters. But I think that shows why it won't be catastrophic: I don't think this team is going to have a problem getting baskets, even without "elite" outside shooting.

Frankly, I'd take a shooter who will consistently make 34% over a guy who shoots 40%, but has a greater variance. Trent and Allen were guys that would make 4 out of 5 one game, and 1 out of 5 for the next 2 games. In that 4 of 5 game, we were unstoppable. In the 1 of 5 games, the second half saw crowded lanes and paints, effectively neutering drives, and the games of Carter and Bags.

 

[pisgah101]

45

 

[springsportster]

Low 30s

 

[dukephysics]

Last year it was .372. The year before, .379. And before that .385. So just looking at this, one might figure about .370-.380. Duke has shot worse from 3 every year since '12-'13 when the team shot .399 on Seth Curry's 95 made 3's at a .438 rate. Going back to 01-02, no Duke team has shot better than that .399 mark. I think .400 is a pretty unrealistic expectation for this team.
All of these numbers are being propped up by a good, volume shooter. Trent (.400 last year), Luke (.438 the year before), and Grayson (.417 the year before).
Our top 3 freshmen are likely to be the top 3 shot takers. They all will probably land somewhere between Tatum (.342) and Ingram (.410), and at least 2 will probably be closer to the former since none are considered top 3-point shooters.
AOC is likely going to bring the number up, and Tre may shoot better than the average of the top 3 guys (though his brother, a guy known for his shooting while here, was .379 from 3), but both will probably be on less volume.
I think the floor is around .340 with the ceiling being around .380.

 

[PatrickYates]

I think the floor is around .340 with the ceiling being around .380.

That line is incredibly accurate, imo. And it is the season, summed up in one simple sentence. We shoot near 38% from 3 and we are an elite team. If it is closer to 34% we probably don't make the FF.
.
It isn't about Defense, or rebounding, or depth, or passing, or post play, or coaching.
.
If we make enough 3's, at an efficient enough pace, to open the lanes, and Duke wins a bunch of games. If we are weak enough from 3 that opponents can crowd the paint, and we'll lose games vs the top teams when the games really matter.

 

[gottagonow]

33-34

Show I couldnt disagree more. I think it will be 33.5.

 

[Jacket4]

I am on the same boat as some. Low 30's i think 33pct is what you can expect out of this group. I am more concern with the lack of a prolific free throw shooter for late game situations. Last years team wasn't the greatest FT shooting team but you had two guys Allen and Trent that you could give the ball to to help secure the game. Who will be those guys this year? I am not sure but i think Barret was like a high 60 low 70 guy( but he will probably get to the line more than anyone else). Tre was a career 80pcts FT shooter in high school and cam was around 80pct too.

 

[jwill133]

I am on the same boat as some. Low 30's i think 33pct is what you can expect out of this group. I am more concern with the lack of a prolific free throw shooter for late game situations. Last years team wasn't the greatest FT shooting team but you had two guys Allen and Trent that you could give the ball to to help secure the game. Who will be those guys this year? I am not sure but i think Barret was like a high 60 low 70 guy( but he will probably get to the line more than anyone else). Tre was a career 80pcts FT shooter in high school and cam was around 80pct too.

Tre and Cam will be our "game-icers." But yes, to me it's a concern as well.
Grayson and Trent were both better FT shooters than Tre/Cam will be.
Grayson/Kennard were also about as good as it gets.
We also had the year where Quinn and Tyus seemed to not miss a clutch FT for an entire season.

AOC and Baker could also be clutch FT shooters in big situations, I trust both of them at the line.

Another thing on RJ...he's gonna live at the FT line, probably have a similar amount of attempts per game as Bagley did, while probably only shooting a slightly better % than Bagley. However, I've always felt that the more attempts you get a game, the better off you are in clutch situations, so I feel pretty good with RJ too.
Bagley was pretty good on clutch FT's from what I recall, I remember quite a few big situations in the PK80 and he was money.

 

[PatrickYates]

Tre and Cam will be our "game-icers." But yes, to me it's a concern as well.
Grayson and Trent were both better FT shooters than Tre/Cam will be.
Grayson/Kennard were also about as good as it gets.
We also had the year where Quinn and Tyus seemed to not miss a clutch FT for an entire season.

AOC and Baker could also be clutch FT shooters in big situations, I trust both of them at the line.

Another thing on RJ...he's gonna live at the FT line, probably have a similar amount of attempts per game as Bagley did, while probably only shooting a slightly better % than Bagley. However, I've always felt that the more attempts you get a game, the better off you are in clutch situations, so I feel pretty good with RJ too.
Bagley was pretty good on clutch FT's from what I recall, I remember quite a few big situations in the PK80 and he was money.

RJ worked on his shooting this summer, and many reports are that it looks better. It isn't elite, but it has improved. I expect that to carry over into FT shooting.

 

[jnastasi]

I think anywhere from 30-35 so I’ll say 33. God I hope they prove me wrong.

 

[dbav]

45

This. Cam, Baker and the Slim Reaper light it up.

 

[DukeDenver]

I think the floor is around .340 with the ceiling being around .380.

No, the ceiling is the roof.

 

[DukeDenver]

As a team: 36.9%

 

[Jacket4]

Tre and Cam will be our "game-icers." But yes, to me it's a concern as well.
Grayson and Trent were both better FT shooters than Tre/Cam will be.
Grayson/Kennard were also about as good as it gets.
We also had the year where Quinn and Tyus seemed to not miss a clutch FT for an entire season.

AOC and Baker could also be clutch FT shooters in big situations, I trust both of them at the line.

Another thing on RJ...he's gonna live at the FT line, probably have a similar amount of attempts per game as Bagley did, while probably only shooting a slightly better % than Bagley. However, I've always felt that the more attempts you get a game, the better off you are in clutch situations, so I feel pretty good with RJ too.
Bagley was pretty good on clutch FT's from what I recall, I remember quite a few big situations in the PK80 and he was money.

I think baker and aoc could be excellent as well. But i dont see them on the floor in those clutch game moments.

You're right about RJ his game is so aggressive. I expect him to be amoung the nations leaders in ft attempts. We can only hope he shoots north of 70pct. If MB3 shot 70 or more from the line last year, i believe we would of seen a 40pt performance from him. Same will be said about rj this year.

Duke lost games last year because of the inability to make FT's late. I see that as a potential problem again this year.

 

[dukedevilz]

I think Baker will redshirt. Not enough meaningful minutes to go around.

AOC- 42%
Jack- 38%
Cam- 37%
Zion- 34%
RJ- 33%
Tre- 32%
Javin- 28%

Team: 34%

 

[Fresh1972]

I think Baker will redshirt. Not enough meaningful minutes to go around.

AOC- 42%
Jack- 38%
Cam- 37%
Zion- 34%
RJ- 33%
Tre- 32%
Javin- 28%

Team: 34%

I think these numbers are fairly accurate. Hopefully our drives lead to uncontested 3's, so I think RJ and Tre it be up a percent or two...

And I say 37% overall.

The thing with the 3 is we cannot live and die by it, because 1 bad day in the tourney and you are gone!

Our 5 out system, which I think we have run at times in the past, just maybe not by that terminology... It ill be interesting to see how we attack the zone defenses. I don't see many teams wanting to play man against us with guys like Zion, RJ and Cam attacking off the dribble... I can see a lot of drives and kicks.. And then the need again will be to knock down the three... In games where we face a zone, If Javin cannot knock down the three, I can See Jack logging a lot of minutes and hopefully AOC too.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

69

 

[QC Dukie]

69

Solid number

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

Solid number

I can see us sniffing around 69....%.....after the first couple minutes.....of game 1

 

[Canadian Dukie]

69

The breakfast of champions!

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

The breakfast of champions!

11:13 am here ....Brunch

 

[Liftee]

I am a lot less concerned about the 3 pt. percentage than the foul shooting percentage. I disagree with those who say Duke won't be a good offensive rebounding team. Long rebounds off of 3 pt misses will be cat nip for our long wings. The real problem is we don't have the automatic foul shooters we had last year with Grayson and Trent. That worries me.

 

[AlanInNJ]

I'm more concerned with hitting timely 3's than the overall percentage. How many big threes did the 2015 team hit? Tyus at UVA and in of course in the finals from the top of the key. Quinn with that crazy long string of a 3 in how many games? Hit 'em when we need 'em, and I'm good!

 

[jnastasi]

I think Baker will redshirt. Not enough meaningful minutes to go around.

AOC- 42%
Jack- 38%
Cam- 37%
Zion- 34%
RJ- 33%
Tre- 32%
Javin- 28%

Team: 34%

Pretty accurate but I think Zion will be closer to 25-30% and Tre may be a litttle closer to 35%.

 

[DukefanKY]

I am a lot less concerned about the 3 pt. percentage than the foul shooting percentage. I disagree with those who say Duke won't be a good offensive rebounding team. Long rebounds off of 3 pt misses will be cat nip for our long wings. The real problem is we don't have the automatic foul shooters we had last year with Grayson and Trent. That worries me.

This is me as well. Missing free throws down the stretch drives me crazy...

 

[5andKounting]

Both bolden and delaurier getting the green light and proving that they can hit them is very promising. I’m not as worried about our three point percentage. Everyone is going to be allowed to shoot them and with our floor spacing and slashing ability we’re talking about a lot of open shots. As long as we can hit 37 percent or better we should be good. We’re gonna get a lot of points in transition anyways so whatever we lack in three point shooting will be made up elsewhere.