One and dones
- Thread starter RipThru
- Start date
First of all, in the OAD era, K has gotten Irving, Rivers, Parker and Okafor who were pretty much guaranteed to be OAD, and who would likely have gone straight from high school to the NBA if given the choice. Other than those four, although Winslow and Tyus turned out to be OAD, you could argue that at least Tyus, possibly both would have chosen to go to college even if the option was there to make the jump out of high school. Now Ingram is most likely to be OAD, and the remaining players in this class could have amazing seasons and wind up being OAD as well, but the general consensus is that at least two of the three will be in Durham for more than one season."5 Star" player does not always equate to OAD.
That said, I'm all for K recruiting one and dones. They take a program to the next level. However, unlike Cal, I think K still puts more of an emphasis on bringing in four year, program building players to place around the OADs. Players like Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Quinn Cook, Miles/Mason/Marshall Plumlee, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, etc. etc. are the type of players Duke fans love, who are around for 3-4 years. I don't think Cal recruits those type of players.
Plus, Cal's questionable history with recruiting and bolting on programs right before they are sanctioned doesn't help the perception of his recruitment of OAD players.
Bottom line - as long as we're getting them the right way, they're good kids, they want to be at Duke and they play hard, keep the OADs coming. But I'll always love and want the 3-4 year guys just as much.
That said, I'm all for K recruiting one and dones. They take a program to the next level. However, unlike Cal, I think K still puts more of an emphasis on bringing in four year, program building players to place around the OADs. Players like Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Quinn Cook, Miles/Mason/Marshall Plumlee, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, etc. etc. are the type of players Duke fans love, who are around for 3-4 years. I don't think Cal recruits those type of players.
Plus, Cal's questionable history with recruiting and bolting on programs right before they are sanctioned doesn't help the perception of his recruitment of OAD players.
Bottom line - as long as we're getting them the right way, they're good kids, they want to be at Duke and they play hard, keep the OADs coming. But I'll always love and want the 3-4 year guys just as much.
I have no problem with the way K is handling the "one and done" era. And in what I'm about to say, I am not trying to indicate it is better than Cal's way, because he clearly has had a lot of success. In my opinion, K seems to be more selective than Cal. He is actively recruiting one-and-dones on an annual basis, but he still only offers a small group of players who fit his needs and profile. Cal has gone the "wide net" route, and obviously it tends to work because his teams are annually advancing in March. He feels that if he stockpiles the most talent, which he tends to do, the wins are likely to follow. K seems to be more selective and conscious of things like chemistry. And again, I don't mean that as an indictment of Cal's way, and to the best of my knowledge, Cal hasn't had problematic chemistry issues. I just think Cal's motto is "give me every five-star I can get my hands on" whereas K is thinking "those two or three five-stars fit our mold, give me those guys."
In addition, you can either recruit guys like Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor and have them on your team, or you can avoid them because you know they are short-termers, and have to play against them. I frankly much prefer the former.
In addition, you can either recruit guys like Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor and have them on your team, or you can avoid them because you know they are short-termers, and have to play against them. I frankly much prefer the former.
The short of it is you need veteran leadership and role players, but you also need elite talent to compete for titles. Elite talent these days is generally in the form of a OAD. If you are going to compete for titles, you have to have OADs. The trick is getting the right ones that have the maturity level needed to win and putting them in an environment where they can excel. I like how K has approached the OAD era and love or hate Cal, but he's had a lot of success at it as well. Roy has not figured out the OAD era as well and its showing on the recruiting trial (getting OAD talent but not having them be one and done is apparently not a good long term recruiting strategy these days).
I also think this turns on who is a one and done. It was always my understanding that Winslow and Jones projected as multi-year players. I don't believe they were necessarily "targeted" as one and dones.
Even in this upcoming class, there is only one player that I think is a surefire one and done. So I like the idea of recruiting one or two one and dones every year with a nice compliment to them.
Even in this upcoming class, there is only one player that I think is a surefire one and done. So I like the idea of recruiting one or two one and dones every year with a nice compliment to them.
I don't think all of us Duke fans (at least me) dislike Cal, and UK because of the one and done philosophy that he used to put a stamp on Kentucky basketball. I disliked them both just fine before the one and done era!
And no fanbase despised Cal more than Kentucky before he arrived. Now he's the savior.
Coach K adapts. He saw Cal scooping up all the elite talent, and came to the conclusion that to compete year in and year out for a national championship required an infusion of the elite players (one & dones). His adaptability is just one of the things that sets him apart from many other coaches...especially the older coaches (Roy comes to mind). Change is hard, and believe me as you get older change becomes even more difficult. K can be hardheaded, but his will to win is stronger than his stubbornness.
OFC
And no fanbase despised Cal more than Kentucky before he arrived. Now he's the savior.
Coach K adapts. He saw Cal scooping up all the elite talent, and came to the conclusion that to compete year in and year out for a national championship required an infusion of the elite players (one & dones). His adaptability is just one of the things that sets him apart from many other coaches...especially the older coaches (Roy comes to mind). Change is hard, and believe me as you get older change becomes even more difficult. K can be hardheaded, but his will to win is stronger than his stubbornness.
OFC
I want the best players playing for Duke regardless if they stay 1, 2, 3, or 4 years! I just want to win!
Lmao, how many trolls will we get on this topic? And please, comparing Calapari to Coach K is like comparing a Ford Pinto to a Lamborghini, the shit just don't work. Let's talk real talk. How do you feel about Kentucky falling short yet again and Duke winning it all after beating the team that sent you home AGAIN ?
Ingram is really the only member of this class project OAD.
Coach K sells Duke to the kids and expects them to go to class even if they are staying one year they are expected to be Student Athletes. I am paraphrasing here but I think one of the kids from Kentucky said something along the lines of Cal said to them "You should expect to be one and done when you come here" like I said paraphrasing. Coach K tells his kids at the end of the season who are projected 1st rounders "If you feel like you can't get anything else from being at Duke by all means go" Paraphrasing.
I remember Ulis saying that Cal told him, "I don't want you to come here if you want to be a four-year player"...
Coach K did adapt but My thinking is that every coach in America would recruit an Okafor, Jones and Winslow if they thought they had a legitimate chance of getting them but only a handful of coaches seem to be capable of doing it. Any troll who thinks otherwise especially from the dark side in Chapped Hill is simply jealous. We have to all admit that it looks like Cal was the trendsetter when he was the only one doing it or capable of getting the elite OAD's. I know I despised him for it but I still don't think he has the kids best interest in mind but am likely wrong. I love the taste of crow that OUR OAD's have fed me. Unfortunately, practically all elite players have the desire to be OAD so its just the current trend but it will eventually be changed by NCAA.
Cal pushes his OADs out the door. That's one big difference.
So does K. Check the numbers. Ya know who DOESN'T...?
Preparing One And Dones
From 2011 until now, nobody has done a better job at converting potential one-and-dones into actual one-and-dones than Krzyzewski. He’s brought in six potential one-and-dones in that span and turned all six into actual one-and-dones.
The only coach to turn out more one-and-dones during that period is Kentucky’s John Calipari, but just 12 of his 16 potential one-and-dones have left after one year. That 75 percent rate is excellent – but not as good as K’s 100 percent over the same period.
A POTENTIAL ONE-AND-DONE
Of course, that raises the question: What is a potential one-and-done?
I’ve elected to define it as a player who ranked among the top 10 prospects in his high school class. I realize that it’s a bit arbitrary to suggest that, say, Gerald Henderson (the No. 10 player in 2006) is a potential one-and-done while P.J. Hairston (No. 11 in 2011) is not.
But the numbers support that suggestion.
Of course, the big thing that jumps out at you while looking at this list is that three of the eight top 5 prospects who were not one-and-done played for Roy Williams at North Carolina. More than that, the only two top 5 prospects who stayed three years were Carolina guys – Ty Lawson and John Henson.
-- There are 16 programs that have recruited more than one top 10 prospect since 2006. Eight have recruited five or more. Here’s the list (along with each school’s success at turning potential one-and-dones into real one-and-dones):
(17) Kentucky – 12 of 17 top 10 (70.5 percent); 8 of 9 top 5 (88.9 percent)
(8) UNC – 1 of 8 top 10 (12.5 percent); 1 of 4 top 5 (25 percent)
(7) Duke – 5 of 7 top 10 (71.4 percent); 4 of 4 top 5 (100 percent)
Again, North Carolina’s failure to get top 5 and top 10 prospects into the NBA after one year is startling. The Tar Heels lone one-and-done in this era was Brandon Wright after the 2006 season. Since then, Roy has managed to hold on to his top prospects longer than any coach in college basketball.
On the other hand, it can’t be argued that Roy’s reluctance to prepare his kids for the NBA is starting to hurt him on the recruiting trail. Kids are wondered what happened to players such as James Michael McAdoo (whose draft stock dropped from the lottery after his freshman year to undraftable after his junior year) and why it took Harrison Barnes two years to get to the league?
They can look and see that the top-rated player from last year’s recruiting class who did not turn out to be a one-and-done was UNC’s Justin Jackson.
How does that impact Brandon Ingram, who has let friends know that he hopes to be one-and-done? Where is that most likely to happen – at UNC, playing for Roy? All of his other major targets – Duke, Kansas and Kentucky – have MUCH better track records.
That means that, based on past results, that the odds are that Brandon Ingram has an 80 percent chance to be a one-and-dome – better than that at Duke, Kansas or Kentucky … much worse than that at UNC.
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2015/4/27/8502043/preparing-one-and-dones
So does K. Check the numbers. Ya know who DOESN'T...?
Preparing One And Dones
From 2011 until now, nobody has done a better job at converting potential one-and-dones into actual one-and-dones than Krzyzewski. He’s brought in six potential one-and-dones in that span and turned all six into actual one-and-dones.
The only coach to turn out more one-and-dones during that period is Kentucky’s John Calipari, but just 12 of his 16 potential one-and-dones have left after one year. That 75 percent rate is excellent – but not as good as K’s 100 percent over the same period.
A POTENTIAL ONE-AND-DONE
Of course, that raises the question: What is a potential one-and-done?
I’ve elected to define it as a player who ranked among the top 10 prospects in his high school class. I realize that it’s a bit arbitrary to suggest that, say, Gerald Henderson (the No. 10 player in 2006) is a potential one-and-done while P.J. Hairston (No. 11 in 2011) is not.
But the numbers support that suggestion.
Of course, the big thing that jumps out at you while looking at this list is that three of the eight top 5 prospects who were not one-and-done played for Roy Williams at North Carolina. More than that, the only two top 5 prospects who stayed three years were Carolina guys – Ty Lawson and John Henson.
-- There are 16 programs that have recruited more than one top 10 prospect since 2006. Eight have recruited five or more. Here’s the list (along with each school’s success at turning potential one-and-dones into real one-and-dones):
(17) Kentucky – 12 of 17 top 10 (70.5 percent); 8 of 9 top 5 (88.9 percent)
(8) UNC – 1 of 8 top 10 (12.5 percent); 1 of 4 top 5 (25 percent)
(7) Duke – 5 of 7 top 10 (71.4 percent); 4 of 4 top 5 (100 percent)
Again, North Carolina’s failure to get top 5 and top 10 prospects into the NBA after one year is startling. The Tar Heels lone one-and-done in this era was Brandon Wright after the 2006 season. Since then, Roy has managed to hold on to his top prospects longer than any coach in college basketball.
On the other hand, it can’t be argued that Roy’s reluctance to prepare his kids for the NBA is starting to hurt him on the recruiting trail. Kids are wondered what happened to players such as James Michael McAdoo (whose draft stock dropped from the lottery after his freshman year to undraftable after his junior year) and why it took Harrison Barnes two years to get to the league?
They can look and see that the top-rated player from last year’s recruiting class who did not turn out to be a one-and-done was UNC’s Justin Jackson.
How does that impact Brandon Ingram, who has let friends know that he hopes to be one-and-done? Where is that most likely to happen – at UNC, playing for Roy? All of his other major targets – Duke, Kansas and Kentucky – have MUCH better track records.
That means that, based on past results, that the odds are that Brandon Ingram has an 80 percent chance to be a one-and-dome – better than that at Duke, Kansas or Kentucky … much worse than that at UNC.
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2015/4/27/8502043/preparing-one-and-dones
