Actually wrong. He would make more money next year at Duke then the nba
This year his NIL was $4.8 million and that included deals with Gatorade and Fanatics and a shoe deal with New Balance. Even if that doubled that would be $9.6 million.
The max salary for last year’s number one pick was 4 yrs $57 million (14.25 per). This year it’s probably in the range of 4 / $60 million. $15 million per. His first year (based on next year estimates) would be just above $13 million.
But one then also has to factor in that he will still have the endorsement deals with potentially even bigger contracts on shoe and endorsement deals. So that in itself could be a wash on the NIL.
He would probably have to make $16 million plus on an NIL to equal turning pro.
Finally, the sooner he goes to the NBA the sooner he gets to his second contract 4 years from now - which if it’s with his drafting team could be a max deal this year would start out around $35 million. If it’s a 5 year deal it’s worth around $200 million. By the time Flagg gets to his max deal in 4 seasons —assuming he balls out at the NBA level — that number will probably be 5/$250 million or in the range of 4/$180-200 million. Though tv ratings are down and contracts are dependent on ratings. Still he would be 22 when he signed and he could go with a 3 year deal to get to year 7, where after year 7 a player can swing a SuperMax deal like Brown did with the Celtics and got $304 million for 5 seasons. The benefit of that it that Flagg could get to each of those deals a year sooner. So the future earnings potential is higher as well as the first year numbers.
From a financial standpoint it is clearly better to go to the NBA.
Now, for guys who won’t be drafted in round 1, the contracts are not guaranteed and you have to make the team. It could probably benefit Evans and Proctor to stay. If they perform well they could get in the first round. Evans, if he gets stronger could be a real force and be a lottery pick a year from now with his shooting ability vs struggling to make a team.
Going in round 2 does not earn a guaranteed deal. You have to make the team. If a team really believes in you as a second rounder you could get a 3 or 4 year deal at $2 million per. Max.
So it’s conceivable they could make as much or more at Duke in NIL. Maybe a bit less. However they could improve their draft stock. On the other hand a player like Proctor - it’s possible being a 2nd round pick in the 40s as he’s predicted to be this year could be the best he is going to get. Another crop of freshmen are entering CBB who will be draft eligible and will Proctor improve his draft stock?
But I’d love it if both stayed and if we retained—a must — Malik Brown. He and Slim are crucial to contending next year. If we had Proctor, Brown, and Evans with the incoming freshmen, we should be really good.