What's your theory

[DukefanKY]

Most of us have talked about how tough it is to win on the road this year, and today I heard that so far this year, a top ten team has been beaten 39 times, and that is a new record.
What is you theory on why and what does it mean for us?

 

[bmbritt]

Most of the teams that have been moving in and out of the top ten this year would struggle to be steady top 20 teams in past years. You’ve got 3-5 really good teams and even they have some holes (really young, no star on team) and thus the top 1/4 of teams and bottom 1/2 teams don’t have near the talent gap as in past years. Just for example, even this year’s UVA and Nova teams aren’t half as talented as that they were in prior years.

 

[DukeDenver]

Fluke stat IMO. There are 4 really good teams in the Big 12 and they just happen to be losing on the road a bunch. I think the preseason rankings were out of whack too. Arizona, Kansas and us are relying on guys that are inexperienced but hyped heavily.

If you want a hair brained idea: maybe the NBA money exploding recently means that an increased focus on the pros has changed the commitment levels of the most talented players. This could erode the day to day motivations of the top guys. That’s why a team like UVA might be so consistent in less meaningful games.

 

[ticket2ride04]

Most of the teams that have been moving in and out of the top ten this year would struggle to be steady top 20 teams in past years. You’ve got 3-5 really good teams and even they have some holes (really young, no star on team) and thus the top 1/4 of teams and bottom 1/2 teams don’t have near the talent gap as in past years. Just for example, even this year’s UVA and Nova teams aren’t half as talented as that they were in prior years.

This. NCAA play is watered down. I think the last great college champ was 09 UNC. The paradigm was just starting to shift at that point. ‘99 or ‘01 Duke is miles ahead of the last 4 champs. Florida in 06/07, UNC in 05, Kansas 08 would trounce most of the recent teams.

 

[Voldukie]

It means that other than the Fightin' Tony Bennett's, no one plays defense - and on the road, with foreign rims, new lines-of-sight (especially with a team of Frosh who have never been on that court before) you are bound to lose when the other team is shooting layups and getting 30%+ scoring on the break and your team cant make a jumper

 

[jwill133]

Theory 1: A lot of the best teams no longer consist of senior-led best players, these January road games are tough on young teams. This is another way of saying the NCAA is watered down, the NBA is eating up all of the top talent after guys freshman/sophomore years, meaning there are less loaded teams each year.

Theory 2: Scoring is way up, just causes more variance in the score. 5 years ago, seemed crazy to see a game in the 80's, so many games now are played in the 80's and 90's. More teams use to win on on defense, now more teams are trying to win by outscoring teams. Defense travels, shooting doesn't. (unless your Gary Trent JR in Coral Gables)

 

[Canadian Dukie]

Theory 1: A lot of the best teams no longer consist of senior-led best players, these January road games are tough on young teams. This is another way of saying the NCAA is watered down, the NBA is eating up all of the top talent after guys freshman/sophomore years, meaning there are less loaded teams each year.

Theory 2: Scoring is way up, just causes more variance in the score. 5 years ago, seemed crazy to see a game in the 80's, so many games now are played in the 80's and 90's. More teams use to win on on defense, now more teams are trying to win by outscoring teams. Defense travels, shooting doesn't. (unless your Gary Trent JR in Coral Gables)

Your spot on on both theories,the College game has been eroded by the one and done..I've said before,i long for the days when upper classmen comprise most of your starting line up..as to theory 2..goes to the same point,it takes time to learn to play good defence

 

[LTDukeFan]

I think there is a big increase in basketball parity across the board. I don’t see it as a watering-down, as much as a skills-level increasing. Most of the D1 players played on elite and AAU teams from a very early age. There are only so many slots on a team AND the top schools are only keeping their talent for 1 year.

This is probably a slightly different spin on @jwill133 ’s theories.

 

[CRAZIE4LIFE]

I miss guys like Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Kyle Singler that hung around and have their jerseys retired, I know Singler didn't get his number retired but was right there. We may not see another jersey retired at Duke unless Grayson goes on a tear and is a first team all american.

 

[jwill133]

I miss guys like Grant Hill, Shane Battier, Kyle Singler that hung around and have their jerseys retired, I know Singler didn't get his number retired but was right there. We may not see another jersey retired at Duke unless Grayson goes on a tear and is a first team all american.

......or once they change the One-And-Done rule.

 

[Liftee]

I saw a statistic a few years ago (not going to try to find it now) that showed how many more foul shots home teams shoot as opposed to what they shot on the road. I think refs really favor the home team, perhaps subconsciously. The exception of course is UNC gets the calls everywhere.

The other thing is I think that teams that normally don't get on prime time ESPN will get pumped up (as well as their students) for a prime time game vs. a ranked school.

18-21 year old kids are probably more influenced by the crowd than pros who have been through it so many more times.

I always feel rankings should reflect whether the game is home or away more than they do.

 

[jwill133]

I think there is a big increase in basketball parity across the board. I don’t see it as a watering-down, as much as a skills-level increasing. Most of the D1 players played on elite and AAU teams from a very early age. There are only so many slots on a team AND the top schools are only keeping their talent for 1 year.

This is probably a slightly different spin on @jwill133 ’s theories.

I think this is a great take. It's annoying seeing the typical "These dang kids and the AAU game is ruining college basketball." I've been on board all along saying that guys are just getting better and better each year. Is it due to science? Training programs now are insanely effective given modern technology. Is it due to specialization of sports? Kids now seem to stick to one sport at a younger age than it used to be.

 

[dukiejay]

I think there is a big increase in basketball parity across the board. I don’t see it as a watering-down, as much as a skills-level increasing. Most of the D1 players played on elite and AAU teams from a very early age. There are only so many slots on a team AND the top schools are only keeping their talent for 1 year.

This is probably a slightly different spin on @jwill133 ’s theories.

There is a lot of truth to this. Good post.

 

[Mac9192]

Kids are probably more athletic today, but I don't think they're better than they were years ago. The money in the nba is so big, guys that aren't really ready are bolting. Tatum is having a solid rookie year at 14 points a game, but Josh Jackson is averaging about 10, and Kennard is at 6 points a game.
Elton Brand's rookie year was 20 points and 10 boards, Grant Hill was 20 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. Laettner was 18 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists. Ingram had a solid rookie year at 17 points and 7 rebounds.
I think maybe 5-10 guys max are ready to contribute after one season in college. I can't blame them for leaving for the $$ though, but until a rule of some form changes, this is what we will deal with.

 

[jwill133]

Kids are probably more athletic today, but I don't think they're better than they were years ago. The money in the nba is so big, guys that aren't really ready are bolting. Tatum is having a solid rookie year at 14 points a game, but Josh Jackson is averaging about 10, and Kennard is at 6 points a game.
Elton Brand's rookie year was 20 points and 10 boards, Grant Hill was 20 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. Laettner was 18 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists. Ingram had a solid rookie year at 17 points and 7 rebounds.
I think maybe 5-10 guys max are ready to contribute after one season in college. I can't blame them for leaving for the $$ though, but until a rule of some form changes, this is what we will deal with.

Elton Brand was 20 as a rookie, played on maybe the worst team in NBA history (the post Jordan Bulls). Grant Hill was 21 as a rookie. Jayson Tatum is 19 years old, Ingram was 18 years old as a rookie.

Instead of comparing rookie seasons, age is a much better barometer, because it's just different now. A 21 year old Tatum though, now that will be scary...

 

[Mac9192]

Elton Brand was 20 as a rookie, played on maybe the worst team in NBA history (the post Jordan Bulls). Grant Hill was 21 as a rookie. Jayson Tatum is 19 years old, Ingram was 18 years old as a rookie.

Instead of comparing rookie seasons, age is a much better barometer, because it's just different now. A 21 year old Tatum though, now that will be scary...

That was my point. Few are ready, yet many bolt. I probably would bolt too.

 

[jwill133]

That was my point. Few are ready, yet many bolt. I probably would bolt too.

True, obviously. As compared to 20 year's ago where none were ready (save 1 or 2 High School Guys who just skipped college), and 1 or 2 would go.
Now, 5-10 are ready (depending on the class), and 20-30 go.

Seems to me like the talent pool is better than it used to be, given that 5-10 guys are ready now, if you would have said that 20 years ago, everyone would have laughed.

 

[DukeDenver]

I'm not sure how this is related, and I'm not trying to make some grand connection. Losing is more accepted these days in general. A growth mindset is what is being taught in colleges. Failure is just you getting better and learning what not to do for next time. Losing just isn't what it used to be.

To add to that effect, in the NBA there are teams that stink that are selling out, and great teams that no ones cares about. It's all about the flash in the NBA. That's where the money is. The Lakers are talked about so much more than the Raptors, and it's not just because of the cities.

Bagley doesn't need to play defense 100% of the time to be considered the top prospect. Coach K realizes that he can't ask Marvin for 100% effort all game, every game, because that would cut into Bagley's ability to look unstoppable on offense and put up the kind of numbers that will solidify his top pick. Whether we're 34-4 or 30-8 won't matter for Bagley after April. I'm sure he's not quite that cynical, but I wouldn't blame him if he were.

Bagley has to be thinking: "Say the right things, play hard when it matters and don't get hurt." Meanwhile, Coach K has to figure out a way to get that player to generate wins. I think you just have to be honest and above board. The worst thing that can happen is he pushes Bagley too hard and asks too much, causing Bagley to be dismissive in front of the rest of the team. Coach K would be risking losing Bagley's commitment or the rest of the team. We're in a good place right now. The body language from Bags suggest he possesses some humility, which is gold. Carter doesn't press too much even though he could be putting up even bigger numbers. Grayson is very supportive of the freshmen, letting them know we all notice when they're putting the team first. If we can continue to grow as a unit, we've got a chance in late March.

 

[LTDukeFan]

That was my point. Few are ready, yet many bolt. I probably would bolt too.

There is no "probably". Someone says "Here is a $x,xxx,xxx.xx to come and play a game...." Is your first response "Let me think about it"?

There is too much $$ chasing a few players and the whole pool of players (international, g-league, freshman-seniors, and soon high schooler) is growing. The kids are just trying to snag whatever $$ they can.

Anyone and everyone would go if they have a chance.....puts a new spin on the term "lottery-pick".

 

[skysdad]

I've come to the point that I as a Duke fan will take what the fountain gives us. We've already seen this year including Duke but on a given night anyone can be beat. You really got to bring it all on the floor and sometimes that just doesn't happen. Sometimes I think we are not grateful enough as Duke fans and I sometimes am ashamed after I make critical comments about our players and team when things aren't going the way I think they should be going. I sit on my rear end in my recliner and think ( I don't shout at the T.V. ) " get out and stop the three, " get back on transition defense," "shoot the ball, the shot clock is running down," "stay on your man and quit letting him go the basket," "hit the danged free throws," "hit the danged crunch time free throws." But I'm not in the huddle, I'm not on the court, I'm not a coach, I'm not on the free throw line. I don't see everything going on in the game. I don'e see all the screens that allow a player to go in for a layup. I don't see one of our guys switch on defense because he thinks that's the right move to make and because doing that his man scores because he wasn't picked up. But I will do as I always do during a game and think that I know it all. But I'm a fan. I can't help it. It's my nature. Bless my heart. OFC