Well, I do agree that there is a vast gap in rating potential for possible future impact in the NBA and actual collegiate impact, especially when a player only stays one season. Only rarely is a player so advanced physically or skill wise that the two are in alignment. For example, if anything, Zion was underrated coming out of HS. Lively was given his rating, like all the others, based on what he MIGHT be 3 or 4 years down the road. Looking ahead, the next time that Duke might hit the jackpot is in 2025. In the meantime, I can only hope that some of our marginal NBA players start coming back to school rather than bolting for the 2nd round of the draft.
The curious case of lively
- Thread starter ioliva
- Start date
This isn’t something new. When a center is ranked as a top recruit, it’s not a guarantee that they will be elite. There just isn’t enough size/competition in HS for these bigs to compete against and then in college it can be overwhelming.
Is there any way I can convince this board to stop talking as though "being NBA ready" is or should be a requirement to enter the draft?
Almost nobody is "NBA ready" at 19/20 years old. They aren't being drafted because they're NBA ready, they aren't entering the draft because they're NBA ready. They enter the draft for various reasons, but usually it's because they think they'll get drafted high enough to get a multi-million dollar contract from a team that is willing to allow them to develop for a couple of years AND they know that they can work on their game full time in the NBA rather than part time in college. "NBA ready" has literally nothing to do with 99% of OAD's decisions and it has very little to do with a team's drafting decisions either. If you're not picking top 3-5, you're not expecting your pick to be "NBA ready."
Almost nobody is "NBA ready" at 19/20 years old. They aren't being drafted because they're NBA ready, they aren't entering the draft because they're NBA ready. They enter the draft for various reasons, but usually it's because they think they'll get drafted high enough to get a multi-million dollar contract from a team that is willing to allow them to develop for a couple of years AND they know that they can work on their game full time in the NBA rather than part time in college. "NBA ready" has literally nothing to do with 99% of OAD's decisions and it has very little to do with a team's drafting decisions either. If you're not picking top 3-5, you're not expecting your pick to be "NBA ready."
Well many of our guys who left were never nba ready. (Duval, Hurt, Steward, Jackson, Stanley (I had to google him I forgot his name). Is Carey even in the league?
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He is. He's been getting single-digit minutes for Washington the last couple of weeks.
But he's a good example of what I'm talking about. 2nd round pick who does not look to have the skills to be a big man in today's league and yet he signed a 3 year, $6m contract with $4.5m of that guaranteed.
If someone offered me a 3-year contract with $4.5m guaranteed after my first year of college I'd have left too.
If some body had offered me $50,000 a year to play ball when I was 19 I would have jumped on that. If you think like a 19 year old, you’ll understand why they bolt.
Has Keels played for the Knicks? I don't follow the NBA. Most G League guys only get 50K, and your agent gets a cut of that I assume.
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Gotta shut this thread down. It's getting far too logical.
Yes he has and he didn’t get signed by the gleague he got signed by the knicks it’s a big difference. He’s not a two way player he’s simply playing in the gleague because just like Williams the Knicks are heavy at guard . That 50k is if a gleague team signs you only .
Lively will go in the first make above first round league minimum and spend a year in the gleague like Williams has because of other players under contract .
The gleague isn’t a bad thing unless you were signed to a two way contract . If your drafted, sign an NBA contract of any kind then you have to be paid league minimum.
Trevor is currently making 508,000 of his 1,700,000 rookie contract for the Knicks .
Mark is making close to 4 million this year and next and I’d expect his player option to be picked up on his third at close to 5 million . That’s 13 million for his first three years and has endorsements with the Jordan brand . He will have a bigger role next year on the hornets when most their bigs come off contract . They are trying to see what they have in Thor and Richards and many think Mason might get moved but his contract is up as well .
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Keels was physically ready for the NBA. That's what made him attractive to take in the 2nd round. Proctor isn't nearly there. Right now, Proctor has a good but somewhat loose handle and court vision, but doesn't finish at the basket, shoot well from anywhere, or have strength. I love Proctor but I think if he leaves after this year (and history says he will), I think he may be back in Australia for a year or two.
Getting Proctor and Lively back would be incredible. But I don't think we do. Mitchell I hope we get back, but I'm not sure. NBA scouts seem to really like Flip and Whitehead. I just don't see it with Whitehead. He doesn't seem to do anything at at elite level right now, perhaps due to injury. He's all potential right now, and the injury seems to have robbed him of his explosiveness. I thought he would be dominating by now based on what I'd heard. Even Flip is raw, but I can see the potential with him. and he's putting up good numbers. I think all of our freshman have NBA potential (except maybe Schutt) but they all have just as many questions. It almost seems like high school rankings are based on NBA potential these days instead of their ability to contribute right away. Last year's class was physically mature already. I just hope we get the second round guys back (at this point Proctor and Mitchell)
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I think that's the realistic hope. Proctor, Mitchell (and Roach) come back. I think Flip and Whitehead are 99% gone and Lively is 90% gone. Hoping Ryan Young returns as well. He's been a huge bright spot this year.
Will just be an odd front court then. Young is 6'10", but due to limited athleticism plays smaller. Mitchell and the three incoming PFs are all 6'8". And I don't expect Reeves to be getting big minutes next season. Very different than this year with Flip and Lively at 7' or more.
I’ve always wondered what the main rankings sites (247, rivals, ESPN) are basing off of. I do feel like nowadays the rankings are based off of NBA potential, that is the only explanation for Lively’s ranking, and he’s probably a 5 year project, not 1 or 2.
Back in the day I do feel it was different. Rankings were more based on the player as of “right now.” Hence Singler being ranked #5 in an absolutely loaded class.
Back in the day I do feel it was different. Rankings were more based on the player as of “right now.” Hence Singler being ranked #5 in an absolutely loaded class.
We all know recruiting rankings are subject to debate and some of the top prospects just don't pan out. Others do, and I think for the most part- most of our five stars over the last ten years have played pretty well. No matter how you slice it- Lively looks to be the worst top rated prospect in the one and done Era and I don't think the light will go off in the next 2 months.
Time to accept that
Time to accept that
At least we can use his five fouls vs Bacot. I agree with you Slice....OFC
You know in a way Proctor likes to drive to the basket the way Grayson did except he's not as strong and doesn't finish it the way Grayson did. Of course it did take Grayson some time but once he got going he was hard to stop. Maybe Proctor will stick around long enough to get to Grayson's level. Now Grayson did have his share of " cheap shots" to be honest but in most cases he recieved some before he gave them back. We could use some Grayson Allen like intensity on this team. OFC
Thing people are over looking on Reeves is that Foster was his high school pg . Reeves will be good to go and Young back would just take the pressure off him .
Completely agree. Here in Connecticut, we had a local 7’ kid, Donovan Clingan, who was very highly regarded in the state, but never seemed to get much national pub. UConn gets him and now he’s arguably their best player (and appears to be planning on coming back). He was well coached and had strong fundamentals. There ARE talented kids out there every year who aren’t Top10 automatic OAD types - I just think many schools coaching staffs focus on the easy pickings, namely the ones who, for one reason or another, get these ridiculous national rankings, and the Donovan Clingans of the world fall into the hands of those coaches who actually beat the bushes for talent.
I've wondered the same thing. Are they trying to predict freshman year success? Are they trying to predict NBA success? Or are they just evaluating talent in that moment... who is the best senior high school basketball player as of today? Based on the rankings that I've been following these last five years or so, I definitely CANNOT tell what the criteria they're using is.
The best coaches in fb recruit players not stars. There are a lot of three stars or lower drafted: late bloomers, underrated, worked their ass off for a couple of years etc. I look forward to that day when our coach doesn’t chase every player based on his recruiting ranking and actually beats sone bushes like Bennett and Hamilton do. There are diamonds in the rough out there but takes a lot of hard work and a little luck
It's a tough situation. On one hand, it's hard to not take the elite talent if available. On the other, it creates this revolving door that we have here at Duke. The next batch is coming in expecting to take the place of the kids that just left.
I am a firm believer that what doesn't work is the phrase "take the talent and figure it out." It may one day happen where a group of freshmen win the title, but so far, the teams with some veteran leadership are the ones cutting down the nets.
If any of the projected OADs on this roster return then which of the 2023 recruits see less than 20 minutes of PT next season? I would guess TJ. Stewart, Ryan and Reeves should give Duke a strong trio at the 5. McCain and Foster should start w Blakes and Schutt getting minutes in the backcourt. Don’t think team chemistry will be good if Roach or Proctor return unless they accept less PT..That leaves McKenzie and TJ on the wing and at the 4.I think one CG/wing from the portal is last piece to complete the roster . Proctor could however be that person since he could play the 1-3.
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I am not concerned in the least bit about whether any freshman from next year decides not to risk having to compete for a job, or whose feelings are hurt because they can't start from day one. We learned this year that there are no guarantees with even the highest rated recruits and I will take a sophomore who has had a year of college wars over a recruit any day.
I don't know when it became a thing that Duke or anywhere else has to guarantee a spot for a guy who has not played a minute of college ball.
I don't know when it became a thing that Duke or anywhere else has to guarantee a spot for a guy who has not played a minute of college ball.
I think it’s really hard to project how any of our ‘23 recruits are going to fit in or how much PT they’re going to get. This year’s class has been Exhibit A in this regard. Last year we were salivating about how Lively would comfortably replace Mark Williams. And Lively isn’t the first guy we’ve anointed as the next great thing, only to find out after he put on the Duke uniform that he wasn’t up to the task. Whether it’s overhyped, the bright lights of being on the big stage, or losing the desire, it happens to more players than we’d care to think of. And it happens at lots of other schools too.
I never really assume freshman will be studs, unless it's someone like Banchero or Zion or Tatum. It seems like fundamentals are a thing of the past. You need more than 6 months to teach this stuff. I watch Larry Bird and Kevin McHale highlights and it's like a lost art.
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When Duke boxes out on a rebound I just about jump out of my seat with excitement. Yet the next time down everyone stands around and watches a guard on the other team jog in and get an offensive rebound because nobody put a body on him.
If two players from this class return next year don’t expect anyone from the portal.
Especially if it’s Mitchell and Roach or Proctor and Flip. There’s no reason to get someone from the portal . Now if all five top freshman leave and a couple transfers then yes but I wouldn’t look at the portal .
Especially if it’s Mitchell and Roach or Proctor and Flip. There’s no reason to get someone from the portal . Now if all five top freshman leave and a couple transfers then yes but I wouldn’t look at the portal .
Lol , Proctor can not play the 1-3. It’s either pg or combo but he’s not playing the sf spot .
Duke does not need to go to the portal should anyone of the star freshman return .
If we get back Roach, Mitchell and Proctor I'd be pleased as punch. Even 2 of those 3. One of those 3 with Blakes, Schutt Young and Reeves would be good. But if we lose all 3 I'm gonna be pissed off, esp. if we have a lackluster season. I don't think I can take losing another 5 guys to the NBA, esp since these guys aren't that good. .
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This generation is special and plays hard when they want to. Ask any employer and they’ll tell you the same.
We have had a long list of freshman who have been absolute studs in the last 10 years. Alot of names come to mind immediately
It's hard to win a national championship. We were a roll away from a FF in '18 and one missed defensive assignment from another in '19, '20 we had started to hit our stride finally, and COVID ended that, and last year we're a bad call away from getting the ball back with the lead late in the FF and probably going to the title game on Monday night.
Blah blah blah. Excuses. Everybody's got em. (I'm just messing with you)
I agree. If a couple of these guys come back and I am beginning to think that they will, Duke will have no need to look to the portal for impact players.
I don’t need to ask an employer . I work with 20 year olds daily and my exact comment to them are , “ find another job field this isn’t for you!” Some have associates degrees and others bachelors and I simply laugh and tell them they need to cuss out their college advisors . But this ain’t work it’s college ball.
You always heard stories of some guys getting to know the janitor real well cus they would be in there just the two of them for hours at a time. I bet these guys couldn’t pick the janitor out of a lineup
