So lets talk about those Spartans

[Hank1990]

Good points. If Trice is making shots from 25 ft, it will open things up to occasionally get to the basket. I did like the match ups for us leading to the Final Four (I thought Villanova would lose too early for us to meet them), Also, just for reference, our last lost was to the highest offensive efficiency, Final Four, and No. 1 seed team in Wisconsin (and one that we should have beat).

The key for us staying in the game and being competitive is defense. We do that and we have a punchers chance even though I chose Duke to beat us in my bracket.

 

[aah555]

Originally posted by Hank1990:
Good points. If Trice is making shots from 25 ft, it will open things up to occasionally get to the basket. I did like the match ups for us leading to the Final Four (I thought Villanova would lose too early for us to meet them), Also, just for reference, our last lost was to the highest offensive efficiency, Final Four, and No. 1 seed team in Wisconsin (and one that we should have beat).

The key for us staying in the game and being competitive is defense. We do that and we have a punchers chance even though I chose Duke to beat us in my bracket.

Agree about defense. Good MSU defenses make team's uncomfortable running their offense, and prevent offenses from getting the ball to the places on the floor where they like to operate. The first time MSU and Duke played, Duke was pretty much able get the ball to wherever they wanted on the court and, aside from drawing 2-3 charges from Okafor, did little to make any of our guys uncomfortable. MSU doesn't have the talent to defend our guys one-on-one, but it will be interesting to see if they can play a UVA-type of aggressive, physical pack-line type defense to keep our guys out of the lane. If MSU can keep the ball out of the paint and create some turnovers (+points in transition), I think we're probably looking at a very close game. If Okafor gets established in the post and / or if Cook / Jones / Winslow start getting dribble penetration, I think it gets tough for MSU --- b/c I'm still not sold on MSU being able to score enough against our set defense -- which has been very good for much of the past month and matches pretty well with MSU.

 

[JCColsCane]

Originally posted by DukeDenver:

Jah needs to let the Alpha out. He needs to eat what Justise has been eating.

^This. He must show why he is the 1-2 pick in the NBA draft, now! Also, maybe the biggest key will be if Quinn can neutralize Trice like he did to Pangos.
Both teams are better than they were back in week 3, but I've always said the first time loser has the edge in the second game, especially if they are fairly evenly matched.
I would also love to see our guards penetrate and let Jah feed off of them, whether it be a put back or dish off.
Lastly, and you knew it was coming, if we talk, switch, and help on "D" like we have been, I really like our chances!
Go Duke!!


JC-OFC

 

[Heyman25]

Originally posted by DukeDenver:

Originally posted by madrussian:
the mismatch in our favor is the inside game. okafer cannot be hesitant against these guys. msu has had trouble all year with tesms that play quality bigs. maryland, wisconsin duke etc all killed them inside.

they are not a good free throw shooting team.

but i am a bit concerned with the way jah was playing against utah and the zags. to me he seemed too hesitant when the shot was there. then he would get the ball in the high post and not get a quality shot. he will get banged around by 3 different players including dawson.he needs to be a bit "tougher" in the post in this one.

I agree. Jah needs to let the Alpha out. He needs to eat what Justise has been eating.

Okafor had best get the lead out of his pants, or Duke is in big trouble. OFC

 

[aah555]

Okafor needs to play with a sense of urgency. He had it against San Diego State, but there were large stretches of our games against Utah or Gonzaga where the seemed oddly passive on the offensive end and not all that motivated on the defensive end. We need the version of Okafor that backed Bonzi Colson 15 feet under the rim (yes, the "charge" call). MSU's going to try and bully him. He's going to need to play like a man.

 

[madrussian]

Of all of dukes possible scenarios I am most concerned with jah's performance. We need him on his game. We can't be certain Matt jones is going to drop 16 on Sparty.

What I saw Sunday concerned me a bit.

I see some interesting moves by K on jah. I liked the way he took jah out after he commits his first foul. With jah fouls seem to come in pairs-so I really liked that move.

Hopefully we see the beast mode jah.

 

[Tim1515]

I'm actually more worried about Winslow having a drop off offensively. When his shot is falling he is so hard to cover...but he is potentially due for some misses from outside.

I expect Jah to be ready. The size he saw against Utah and Gonzaga threw him. He hasn't played against that type of player much in his career. He will be ready to score against MSU.

 

[youngman42]

Originally posted by crazyduke3:
We can go ahead rest assure that these are NOT the same boys we beat wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy back at the very beginning of the season. (can you believe that game was in NOVEMBER???? seems like forever and boy a lot has happened)

Yes they are a 7 seed. They are also in the F4 so that 7 seed means jack squat, ask Uconn.


Also spare me the Izzo sucks in April stuff, it's not like his teams have been play Virgins-and-wimps university every time. The man has won a title, so he's got the job done before, the F4 is hard as all get out and K has lost his very strong share of F4 games.... but both are still hall of famers and champions.

Dawson plain and simple outdid Harrell yesterday, who is very good, but was more worried about talking than playing. I know they have other players who have REALLY stepped up here recently. From what I've observed, they are very disciplined, share the ball well, play with great intensity and aren't worried about who their opponents are. They make the shots they need to. I still don't know a great deal about them but...

I think they will be far tougher than Gonzaga. I won't be surprised if they draw motivation from us beating them from before.

Should be great game. Spartan fans, feel free to stop in and contribute your thoughts about your team, we respect your kind around here. Just don't floor slap against

How anyone could say that or even think that is beyond me. Izzo has 7 Final Fours and one title. Coach K took 5 FFs to get a W.

The thing about Izzo is he rarely has the best talent in the nation - and this year's MSU team is no exception - but in spite of slow starts through tough competition they almost always are much better come March.

So much of CBB is matchups. MSU is a physical team that plays very good D - it will be a tough game. Personally I think MSU would be blown out by UK because they would not be able to score against UK (somewhat like WVU), but Duke would have a better shot against UK. However, MSU could definitely defeat us in a tight defensive game if they get clutch shots near the end.

I think our outside shooting, and shot selection will be the key for the entire weekend as well as some effective inside work from Okafor. He won't have to score much just effectively. MSU, as Izzo said just yesterday, will use several defensive fronts. But, I think they will try to not double Okafor too much.

On offense, what hurts Duke is when one wing player gets impatient, dribbles a bit, and settles for a 3 point shot without passing. Especially when Justise does this (he's not a pure 3 point shooter - he makes them but inconsistently - it's not is forte. - he will need to hit some but can't settle). He needs to wait for the defense to rotate away and shoot off of a pass. When he has the ball in his hands, he has to look to drive and shoot first or kick it out of the D collapses.

But, if we take smart shots and shoot well from outside - it will be very difficult for MSU to beat us.


This post was edited on 4/3 8:58 AM by youngman42

 

[dukiejay]

Originally posted by youngman42:
So much of CBB is matchups.

This can't be stated enough. Like you, I think MSU presents many more problems for us and Wisconsin than they do for UK.

My main concern (I don't even want to call it a worry) is the Final Four hype getting to us a bit. After all, these are kids playing on college basketball's biggest stage. The first eight minutes are huge for this team and have been all season. Often times through the first two TV timeouts you can see "it" with this team.

In addition, I think Izzo is good at creating the "we have nothing to lose" motto with some of his teams. This is one of them.

 

[aah555]

As we saw with Duke 01 v. Duke 10, you can never completely predict how a team will come out at the final four. In 01, we easily played our worst 10-15 minutes of basketball all season at the start of the final four contest against Marland. In 10, by contrast, we played our best 30 minutes of basketball against WVU.

With that said, if I were to guess, I think our guys will handle the pressure fine after the first couple minutes. Although this team has certainly now always showed up on some nights, I've never really gotten the sense that the pressure of the moment has gotten to us. Aside from our no show performance against ND at the ACC tourney, I think we've won the first 8 minutes of every game we've played all season (not 100% positive, but think we've been ahead at the under 8 TO of every game this season outside of that ND debacle). It would really surprise me if we get off to a really poor start (ala ND).

If anything, the real bellweahter stretch has been the period between the under 12 TO and the under 4 TO. In our worst performances, that's really been the stretch that has cost us -- as the energy levels / intensity / focus of guys like Okafor / Winslow sometimes seems to waiver. In all our losses / near misses, we've lost that stretch -- sometimes by sizeable margins. On nights we're focused / ready to play, we've built on our strong starts doing that strech.
This post was edited on 4/3 12:09 PM by aah555

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

Originally posted by youngman42:

Originally posted by crazyduke3:
We can go ahead rest assure that these are NOT the same boys we beat wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy back at the very beginning of the season. (can you believe that game was in NOVEMBER???? seems like forever and boy a lot has happened)

Yes they are a 7 seed. They are also in the F4 so that 7 seed means jack squat, ask Uconn.


Also spare me the Izzo sucks in April stuff, it's not like his teams have been play Virgins-and-wimps university every time. The man has won a title, so he's got the job done before, the F4 is hard as all get out and K has lost his very strong share of F4 games.... but both are still hall of famers and champions.

Dawson plain and simple outdid Harrell yesterday, who is very good, but was more worried about talking than playing. I know they have other players who have REALLY stepped up here recently. From what I've observed, they are very disciplined, share the ball well, play with great intensity and aren't worried about who their opponents are. They make the shots they need to. I still don't know a great deal about them but...

I think they will be far tougher than Gonzaga. I won't be surprised if they draw motivation from us beating them from before.

Should be great game. Spartan fans, feel free to stop in and contribute your thoughts about your team, we respect your kind around here. Just don't floor slap against

How anyone could say that or even think that is beyond me. Izzo has 7 Final Fours and one title. Coach K took 5 FFs to get a W.

The thing about Izzo is he rarely has the best talent in the nation - and this year's MSU team is no exception - but in spite of slow starts through tough competition they almost always are much better come March.

So much of CBB is matchups. MSU is a physical team that plays very good D - it will be a tough game. Personally I think MSU would be blown out by UK because they would not be able to score against UK (somewhat like WVU), but Duke would have a better shot against UK. However, MSU could definitely defeat us in a tight defensive game if they get clutch shots near the end.

I think our outside shooting, and shot selection will be the key for the entire weekend as well as some effective inside work from Okafor. He won't have to score much just effectively. MSU, as Izzo said just yesterday, will use several defensive fronts. But, I think they will try to not double Okafor too much.

On offense, what hurts Duke is when one wing player gets impatient, dribbles a bit, and settles for a 3 point shot without passing. Especially when Justise does this (he's not a pure 3 point shooter - he makes them but inconsistently - it's not is forte. - he will need to hit some but can't settle). He needs to wait for the defense to rotate away and shoot off of a pass. When he has the ball in his hands, he has to look to drive and shoot first or kick it out of the D collapses.

But, if we take smart shots and shoot well from outside - it will be very difficult for MSU to beat us.





This post was edited on 4/3 8:58 AM by youngman42

Good post, Youngman, except for one thing imo. I keep hearing how inconsistent Justise is from the arc...and I just don't see that. You're not the only one that says it either. He may not be a 'pure' 3 point shooter, but he also isn't a volume 3 pointer shooter such as Quinn. Justise Is now the best 3 point shooter on the team...percentage wise. He's shooting 41.1% from behind the arc, and Quinn is 40.1%. Justise is also 2nd in total 3 point shots made to Quinn...even though that is a distant 2nd place. Justise has 45 made 3's, and Quinn has 101, but Quinn has taken almost 2 and 1/2 times the 3's Justise has...252 attempts vs 108 attempts for Justise.

I thought I would go back 10 games and present the totals made and taken by Justise, plus also for Quinn as a comparison. But then I said why not 15, but I still hadn't run across a really bad 3 point shooting game (for Justise) so I thought I would continue to half the games (18 approximately) to see if I found one...and I did...against Virginia at their house. So below is Duke's last 18 games (half the schedule so far).

Starting from the last game against Gonzaga and going backwards into the regular season.

3 point shots made and taken by Justise and Quinn.

Gonzaga: Justise 2 of 4 Quinn 1 of 5

Utah: Justise 3 of 4 Quinn 0 of 1

SDSU: Justise 1 of 2 Quinn 3 of 8

Robert Morris: Justise 1 of 2 Quinn 6 of 10

Notre Dame: Justise 0 of 0 Quinn 1 of 8 This is the only game of the 18 Justise didn't shoot at least 1 three.

NC State: Justise 1 of 3 Quinn 2 of 2

UNC: Justise 1 of 3 Quinn 4 of 10

Wake Forest: Justise 1 of 1 Quinn 3 of 7

Syracuse: Justise 3 of 5 Quinn 1 of 8

Virginia: Justise 1 of 3 Quinn 6 of 11

Clemson: Justise 1 of 1 Quinn 3 of 7

UNC: Justise 1 of 1 Quinn 6 of 9

Syracuse: Justise 1 of 2 Quinn 2 of 7

Florida State: Justise 1 of 3 Quinn 4 of 9

Notre Dame: Justise 1 of 2 Quinn 3 of 8

Georgia Tech: Justise 1 of 1 Quinn 1 of 8

Virginia: Justise 0 of 4 Quinn 6 of 10 This is the only game that Justise didn't make a 3 when he shot at least one 3. But he still scored 15 points and had 11 rebounds.

Notre Dame: Justise 3 of 4 Quinn 3 of 6


Justise had 1 game he didn't shoot a 3 at all. He had 1 game where he didn't make a 3 when attempting one and that was when he was 0 of 4 against Virginia. Other than the O'fer game against Virginia, he had 4 games that he shot an identical 1 of 3 in...okay, now think about that...his worst games he shot 1 of 3...which is 33%...and that's as effective as 50% from 2. And to put that in perspective Quinn had an O'fer game against Utah (even though he only took 1 three). But Quinn also had 3 games that he shot an identical 1 of 8 in, plus another 2 of 7 (which is less than 33%).
Also Justise had 4 games that he only took 1 three point shot...and he made all 4 of them...that's pretty remarkable because you're only getting one chance, and you make it. I think that says you're a pretty good shooter because it's definitely easier to make some shots if you're shooting in volume.

Okay, in summary, I'm not saying Justise is a pure 3 pointer shooter, and I'm not saying he's the best on the team (if it's a wide open 3 I would prefer Quinn shoot it), but at this point I believe that Justise has shown that he can knock down the 3 if the defense backs off from him...and he has the height and athletic ability to get it off against almost anyone.
Also Justise doesn't go crazy and shoot 3's willy nilly. He only had 5 games that he shot at least 4 three's (including the O'fer against Virginia), but in those 5 games (again including the O'fer against Virginia) he was a combined 11 of 17 for 65% from behind the arc. Which pretty much shows he doesn't take that many 3's unless he is feeling it.
I didn't go back over the rest of the season looking at percentages, but it's obvious that Justise has improved immensely over the course of the season. He has made himself into a quality 3 point shooter...at least in college.

OFC









This post was edited on 4/3 1:48 PM by OldasdirtDevil

 

[aah555]

While I don't think Winslow is a necessarily great 3 pt. shooter, he doesn't take many bad shots (i.e., most of his 3s are rhythm, step-in jumpers) and he doesn't allow earlier misses to impact late-game shots. What has really impressed me most about Winslow all season is that he's had a knack for hitting important 2nd half 3s all season on nights when he's been struggling with his shot. That's quite unusual. Even a lot of players who you'd think are better shooters (e.g., Singler, Scheyer, even Redick at times, or Cook) haven't always been as reliable in pressure situations. The shot where this first became evident was the 3 he made at Wisconsin to give us a 5 pt. lead with about 10 minutes to go. Up to that point, Winslow had been playing an aweful game -- I think 0 of 4, 3 or 4 turnovers. Wisconsin had just cut the lead to two, and their crowd was on their feet. Under very tough circumstances for a freshman, Winslow calmly stepped up and drilled a 3 in a Wisconsin defender's face under circumstance where most would have passed up the shot. He just plays with a level of confidence that's really unusual, and I think that's what driven his 3 pt. shooting numbers (even if, in a shoot around, Winslow is probably not lighting up practice like a Cook).
This post was edited on 4/3 3:46 PM by aah555

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

Originally posted by aah555:
While I don't think Winslow is a necessarily great 3 pt. shooter, he doesn't take many bad shots (i.e., most of his 3s are rhythm, step-in jumpers) and he doesn't allow earlier misses to impact late-game shots. What has really impressed me most about Winslow all season is that he's had a knack for hitting important 2nd half 3s all season on nights when he's been struggling with his shot. That's quite unusual. Even a lot of players who you'd think are better shooters (e.g., Singler, Scheyer, even Redick at times, or Cook) haven't always been as reliable in pressure situations. The shot where this first became evident was the 3 he made at Wisconsin to give us a 5 pt. lead with about 10 minutes to go. Up to that point, Winslow had been playing an aweful game -- I think 0 of 4, 3 or 4 turnovers. Wisconsin had just cut the lead to two, and their crowd was on their feet. Under very tough circumstances for a freshman, Winslow calmly stepped up and drilled a 3 in a Wisconsin defender's face under circumstance where most would have passed up the shot. He just plays with a level of confidence that's really unusual, and I think that's what driven his 3 pt. shooting numbers (even if, in a shoot around, Winslow is probably not lighting up practice like a Cook).

This post was edited on 4/3 3:46 PM by aah555

I think you pretty much nailed it, Aah. Justise is so competitive, and confident. I don't think he's a 'great' 3 point shooter either, but he's the kind of guy that makes big shots, and if a 3 is needed...so be it. I imagine Cook, (possibly Grayson) are capable of knocking down 10, 12, or more 3's in a row during practice, Don't think Justise has that kind of stroke, but he's very solid, and with his ability to go to the rack it's not that smart to crowd him too much. Justise shoots the 3 often enough, and well enough that the defense has to acknowledge his outside shot...and that allows him to use his incredible athletic ability to get to the rim.

OFC

 

[dukehokie]

The thing about Justise shooting threes is that of he hits 1, you have to respect it, which leads to his driving.

I think the gameplan here should be the same as UVA. Run, run, run! MSU is playing good, pack line D right now. I see the teams shots falling and I see them vein able to run. We should win this one. The magic (no pun intended) has run out.