Right now the mock drafts have him going pretty late in first round. Is there any chance he stays at Duke to try and boost his spot back in the lottery? I am still waiting for him to breakout, as I'm sure everyone else is as well. He's been playing better, but I just don't see him moving back up to a lottery pick.
Giles Question???
- Thread starter K Coach
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I agree. I think he may be 50/50. Depending on how he does from here on out. If he had a killer finish then he leaves. If he keeps at this pace I see him returning. Just my thoughts.
It's a shame Duke won't get to see him at his best... if he can ever get back to his pre injury form. Even on the alley oop dunk Sat he was barely above the rim. Obviously, feel worse for him than a simple fan.
It takes time, anyone who thought we would get 100% out of him this year was delusional. It is ok for him to play and work back towards what he was. Sitting out another entire year I think would have been a bad move. If he can continue to play and have a full off season of training I think in another year he can get back a lot of that explosion he lost. Jabari is a good example- it takes time to get that explosion back but boy does he ever have it now. Not saying Harry will, but I'm hopeful if he keeps working hard he will get back.
Your in the minority.
Giles isn't coming back folks. He will go first round and he knows it just like we do. He can rebound and has a decent looking jump shot on a 6'10" frame.
He's currently at 19 I think in the draft being picked by the Knicks.
He can still get back in form even if it's getting drafted and playing in the D-League while he does it.
Maybe the chance of him playing a second year at Duke is growing? The probability of him leaving is certainly high, but I have heard talk and projections about Harry Giles game now for over 2 years now and not one has been correct. Anytime a player continuously slides down the mock drafts, the possibility of him staying another year of college grows. Here is quick summary of the hype talk and the projections over the past two years...
2 years ago - Even though he has had a knee injury, he is still the best high school player people have seen in a while. A lock for best player in his class, dominant player for his one year in college, and top overall selection in the NBA draft.
Last year - injures other knee... Doesn't slow down the hype. "Giles sitting out his senior in high school will only make him stronger", "the good thing is the injury will have fully healed by start of freshman season at Duke", "still one of the top 2 players in his class, and sure top 2 pick in the draft".
Summer 2016- "rehab is ahead of schedule", "knees are going to be better and stronger than ever", "return date looking like start of season and sure top 2 pick in the draft".
Fall 2016 - surgery on first injured knee... "just cleaning things up from the first surgery", "not a big deal", "gonna ease him back into basketball, might miss first couple games", "just making sure when he comes back he has no limitations and can quickly start dominating again", "still a top lottery pick in the draft".
November 2016 - Harry not ready... "still no contact in practice", "easing him back into basketball", "making sure he has no limitations when he comes back", "sit him now that way he'll be dominant in league play", "still a top 10 pick in the draft".
December 2016 - "still easing him back into basketball", "looking like he'll be a full go middle of December", "looking good in practice and taking contact again". "Still a top 10 pick in the draft".
Mid December 2016 - Harry makes debut... "easing him into the flow", "not confidant and looks lost which is understandable", "once in game shape gonna be a handful", "needs a little more time", "he'll be ready come conference play", "still a top 12 pick in the draft".
January 2017 - conference play... "not used to playing against quality big men", "needs a little more time", "still learning the offense", "still searching for role", "gonna be a handful when he figures it out", "great cheerleader while not playing and pumps the team up", "still a top 15 pick".
February 2017 - conference play continued... "Harry almost there health wise", "conditioning coming back", "still searching for role and needs to find his niche", "still a top 20 pick".
Maybe it's just me, but I have seen a pattern (a slow decline) in hype and in these draft projections taking shape for months now, and with 6-8 weeks left who knows where Harry will end up?
Do I think Harry is going pro? I certainly do, but I don't think it's a slam dunk, especially if his game doesn't change. "Easing him back", "figuring it out", and "finding his role" has a life expectancy amongst NBA executives, and the life expectancy is now in the short breath stage! In two months, projections moved from top 2-3 to somewhere around 20. Three weeks ago I said "Harry wasn't a top 15 pick, (which some strongly disagreed with) and would end up in the twenties". Currently I still like my projection, but the end of the first round is on the horizon. If the end of the first round or early second round becomes a likely landing spot for Harry, my 90% certainty of Harry going pro will probably drop to 60%.
To get back into the top 15, Harry needs to summon the A game over the next 6-8 weeks! The highlight reel mixtape, with the catchy rap music from 2 years ago, only means something to homer fans from whichever school the athlete chooses... Not NBA executives!
2 years ago - Even though he has had a knee injury, he is still the best high school player people have seen in a while. A lock for best player in his class, dominant player for his one year in college, and top overall selection in the NBA draft.
Last year - injures other knee... Doesn't slow down the hype. "Giles sitting out his senior in high school will only make him stronger", "the good thing is the injury will have fully healed by start of freshman season at Duke", "still one of the top 2 players in his class, and sure top 2 pick in the draft".
Summer 2016- "rehab is ahead of schedule", "knees are going to be better and stronger than ever", "return date looking like start of season and sure top 2 pick in the draft".
Fall 2016 - surgery on first injured knee... "just cleaning things up from the first surgery", "not a big deal", "gonna ease him back into basketball, might miss first couple games", "just making sure when he comes back he has no limitations and can quickly start dominating again", "still a top lottery pick in the draft".
November 2016 - Harry not ready... "still no contact in practice", "easing him back into basketball", "making sure he has no limitations when he comes back", "sit him now that way he'll be dominant in league play", "still a top 10 pick in the draft".
December 2016 - "still easing him back into basketball", "looking like he'll be a full go middle of December", "looking good in practice and taking contact again". "Still a top 10 pick in the draft".
Mid December 2016 - Harry makes debut... "easing him into the flow", "not confidant and looks lost which is understandable", "once in game shape gonna be a handful", "needs a little more time", "he'll be ready come conference play", "still a top 12 pick in the draft".
January 2017 - conference play... "not used to playing against quality big men", "needs a little more time", "still learning the offense", "still searching for role", "gonna be a handful when he figures it out", "great cheerleader while not playing and pumps the team up", "still a top 15 pick".
February 2017 - conference play continued... "Harry almost there health wise", "conditioning coming back", "still searching for role and needs to find his niche", "still a top 20 pick".
Maybe it's just me, but I have seen a pattern (a slow decline) in hype and in these draft projections taking shape for months now, and with 6-8 weeks left who knows where Harry will end up?
Do I think Harry is going pro? I certainly do, but I don't think it's a slam dunk, especially if his game doesn't change. "Easing him back", "figuring it out", and "finding his role" has a life expectancy amongst NBA executives, and the life expectancy is now in the short breath stage! In two months, projections moved from top 2-3 to somewhere around 20. Three weeks ago I said "Harry wasn't a top 15 pick, (which some strongly disagreed with) and would end up in the twenties". Currently I still like my projection, but the end of the first round is on the horizon. If the end of the first round or early second round becomes a likely landing spot for Harry, my 90% certainty of Harry going pro will probably drop to 60%.
To get back into the top 15, Harry needs to summon the A game over the next 6-8 weeks! The highlight reel mixtape, with the catchy rap music from 2 years ago, only means something to homer fans from whichever school the athlete chooses... Not NBA executives!
0/0 and 0/1 is still 0%.
Not sure if you were quoting Gary the entire time but there is a "0% chance of him returning."- me. Anyone holding out hope or trying to reason the other way, unfortunately is just flat out not realistic. He is gone. Enjoy him.
Im not holding out hope that he stays or goes. The question from the original poster was "is there a chance Harry returns to boost pick in the lottery"? As I stated in my post, I'm 90% sure he goes to the NBA. If the steady decline continues, and points him to the end of the first round, early second round, I think the option of returning comes back into play, and still I favored him leaving 60-40. My opinion is, I simply don't think it's a 0% slam dunk. The slam dunk of him being a dominant top 2 pick has came and gone... Why would this shock you?
In most cases this thought process would make sense. A highly touted player does not play up to his potential which causes a slide in his draft stock... of course he may come back for a second season to rebuild his stock. The issue is that Giles' injury history makes that too risky of an option. A late first rounder with a guaranteed contract is a lot better than the potential for another serious injury which may leave him completely undraftable.
Because he's still going to be a first-round pick. Harry isn't on a two-year plan....the plan all along was one and done. He has two surgically repaired knees and there's already a lot of question marks surrounding them. He's better off taking guaranteed money.
Even if Giles does not improve much over the course of the season, I still think there's a good chance he gets picked in the 15-20 range. This guy was the number one player in his class and still shows flashes of the talent. At that point in the draft, it will be worth it to gamble on him continuing to improve as he recovers from the injuries/time off.
Guys, I get that he has injuries and money plays a major factor. I am a huge supporter of guys leaving early to go earn. Again, my opinion is that I don't think there is 0% chance of him returning. If your percentage is much greater than mine, it's ok.
He won't come back but I feel bad for him. He's never going to be the player he could be if let himself stay and develop into what he can do. NBA bigger stronger more physical. Idk how he'll be able to make it but we'll see
It's already been said - but with Carter here next year, there won't be much room to showcase skills in the post. That dude can really play. Giles is gone and I truly wish him the very best and would love to see him get back to where he was before the injuries (even if it isn't until after he's done at Duke).
I'll take the flack and it's fine, but I actually don't think it's a totally foregone thought. Do I think he goes, sure, and it's the smartest thing to do in his case especially. But I wouldn't be surprised if there have at least been conversations about getting back to form one more summer with Coach Will.
Again, I emphasize that I think he goes.
Again, I emphasize that I think he goes.
Harry is a great young man. I'm happy to have him associated with the program no matter what he decides. He can't control the hype. He has done everything the right way. No disapointment from me.
I would love to see him back for one more year. He has showed flashes of what he can be and I would love to see him in a Duke Uni at 75% or better health wise, but his dad has officiated a couple of my boys middle school games and just briefly talking with Mr Giles I feel fairly certain we are seeing the best Giles that we will see in a Duke uniform. I hope he reaches his potential at the next level because I believe he could be a dominate type player if he gets close to 100%. Either way I will follow his career from here on out. Super kid and family.
I am also in the camp that says it's still highly likely that he goes, but returning is higher than 0% right now. Most mocks have him in the late teens. I have seen a couple that have him out of the first round. A byproduct of his not having gotten back into form and the depth of this draft class. If he drops all the way out of the first round, leaving may be riskier than staying.
I think this is the wise move, but hate to see him move on.
Giles will go first round but not in the lotto. He has to much unknown to risk the ten million guaranteed rookie lotto contract but the upside is he's also well worth a pick after the lotto in the first round . Giles won't fall to the second round.
I don't think anyone has any clue this far out where he will go in the draft, but what I can tell you is he will enter the draft. Enjoy him. He's an awesome kid who loves his teammates and shows a ton of passion when he's out there and when he's not. Lucky to have him.
The latest mock from ESPN (which I believe was released this week) has him going at number ten, and it says all of the things you'd expect in the explanation. Scouts and NBA teams still look at his high school self and are willing to take a risk that he'll be able to get back to that. If he does he has lights-out-superstar potential, and that is well worth the risk. I mean in how many drafts do you really have a chance to get a superstar at the tail end of the lottery? No chance he stays imo. For me NBA scouts might be disappointed in the lack of flashes he's shown ability wise, but they also have to be thrilled that he hasn't gotten hurt playing high level college basketball. For my money that's all he needed to show in order to get taken in the lottery.
Do you duke guys think Giles will get better as the season goes on? I really think he is getting better every game, and will be a different player by march
I just think it's confidence in his knees and making his self believe he can be the athlete he was in highschool.
As far as the draft boards go I tend to look at nbadraft.net they are usually accurate but i looked at the number wrong they have Giles at 11 to the knicks which would be a good fit for him next to Porzingus
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...rospect-harry-giles-faces-impossible-question
Article on the decision Harry Giles faces. I know it's from Bleacher Report, but it was still a pretty decent read.
Article on the decision Harry Giles faces. I know it's from Bleacher Report, but it was still a pretty decent read.
People always tell these kids to run and take the money. That's not the best advice for every kid. For someone in Giles situation his best option is to come back and bet on himself. Everyone recognizes when he gets fully healthy and acclimated that he will be a good pro. Check this math out: Let's say he leaves and get drafted #10. He will get signed to a 4 year, $13.6M contract. If he stay in school, he can get that insurance policy (which the school pays for) that'll cover injury ($10M) and/or stock drop ($10M). So if he were to come back and get hurt or get worse, he's getting $10M regardless. So he could potentially get that $10M PLUS the rookie contract for 2018. But here's the thing: if he comes back and shows he's a #2 player then he can sign a rookie contract 4 yr/$27.9M. As a businessman and owner of my own company the option of staying is by far the best option. I know you're thinking "what if he gets hurt and his career ends". He can get hurt in the NBA and he will only get that $13.6M. So the decision he's really making is should he take $13.6M guaranteed now, $10M+2018 rookie contract if stock falls, $10M if for career ending injury, OR $27.9M betting on yourself? The most business sense is to take a chance on yourself because you could end up making double or $10M at the least. NBA careers average 4 years so there's no guarantee you'll even make a second contract. But if you come back and ball then you get that $27.9M and if you get hurt or out of the league in 4 years you doubled the money you would've had by leaving early. ECON 101.
Your points aren't wrong. But one thing you aren't factoring in is that if he comes back, he takes 0 dollars next year and his rookie salary clock starts one year later. If he goes pro and does incredibly well, such that he can sign a big contract after his rookie contract is up, plus the inflation going on...I think the bet on yourself is actually take money now and get to your second contract ASAP. Basically, if he can make the difference of 28M and 10M (that is, if he can make 18M) in year 5, he is actually ahead leaving this year. But I see your point.
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