I predict one more loss before the NCAA's. No clue when it will come. The picks would be @ NC St, @ UVA, or in the ACC tourney to FSU or UL. That will give us 4 losses on the year.
We should be a 1-seed with only 4 losses, especially if that includes winning the ACC tournament beating both FSU and UL. A 1 would be great, however I'd still be completely cool with a 2 seed if were in NYC with San Diego St as our 1 seed.
We all know that all Duke's titles have come as a 1 seed. This year I think seed matters less than ever, it's all about match-ups and who will get hot in March. An upset or 2 in our bracket would be amazing too, considering last year our bracket went straight chalk.
Duke won in 1991 as a 2 seed, but the other four were all as #1s.
And you are right - being a 1 seed obviously doesn't guarantee success, but historically, not just for Duke, it is important. I think something like 2/3rds of champions since the 64-team tournament have been 1 seeds.