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I saw the President roll out this talking point a couple of days ago and figured it was worth laying out a quick observation. The idea is that tariffs could replace or reduce income taxes for Americans earning under $200,000. It sounds simple enough. The problem is, it doesn’t hold up once you actually look at the numbers.
The government pulls in over two trillion dollars a year from income taxes. Even under the new 10 percent baseline tariff plan, estimates only show around 160 billion dollars a year. To cover the gap, tariffs would have to jump to about 140 percent across the board. Prices on imported goods would more than double, and even then, imports would fall off a cliff long before enough money could ever be collected.
There’s also a bigger issue. If the plan is to bring manufacturing back and cut down on imports, you’re shrinking the very thing you’re trying to tax. Fewer imports mean less tariff money. The whole strategy would end up undercutting itself.
The truth is, none of the numbers work, and the whole idea falls apart under even a little pressure. It sounds good in a Truth Social post, but it’s not serious.
So why put it out there? Either the president is trying to distract from bigger problems, or he seriously misunderstands how any of this works. Whichever it is, it should concern people who are paying attention.
