It's a relatively small but still significant indicator of how the world will respond to Trump shaking the market up. But Australia has made clear that they will not join China in a partnership to combat the U.S. on trade. Add them to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India and Taiwan (huge shocker) and China is going to have to convince Europe to join them at this rate. And Europe being a Muslim state, they will not like having to choose China over the U.S.
The biggest concern will be does China escalate the confrontation military, say... against Taiwan.
On the Taiwan point—it’s a legitimate concern, but I think there’s a big gap between economic tension and full-scale military escalation. China invading Taiwan isn’t something that happens lightly or suddenly. It would require one of the most complex military operations in modern history, with massive risks and no guaranteed success.
And unlike Russia before Ukraine, China has far more to lose economically. Their entire system depends on global trade and market stability. Starting a war that could trigger severe sanctions, supply chain disruption, and possibly a broader conflict isn’t something they’d do as a reaction to U.S. tariffs.
If Beijing ever does make that move, it won’t be out of frustration—it’ll be because they’ve carefully calculated that they can win fast, survive the backlash, and come out stronger. I don’t think they’re there yet—but who knows what tomorrow brings.
