What's Success for Jon's 1st Season?

[AlanInNJ]

I don't want to get too far ahead of it all, I mean we do have one last amazing season primed for the GOAT to lead Duke to #6 and ride off into the sunset. But it's the offseason, and we need some thing to talk about. So......

What would you consider to be a realistic success for Coach Scheyer in his first year? Is it a Final Four? Is it a 500 season? Is is a tourney run?

For me, I think if he secures a decent recruiting class which includes a couple 2/3/4 year players, finishes in the top half of the ACC regular season and makes it to the round of 32 in the NCAA, I would call it a success. I am actually more interested to see how he handles the tough losses as opposed to what big games the team wins under his leadership.

Alan

 

[denverexpat]

There is only one goal every year - 1st or 50th....win it all, win the ACC regular season, the ACCT, and the National championship - no lowering the bar!

 

[geddoughton23]

There is only one goal every year - 1st or 50th....win it all, win the ACC regular season, the ACCT, and the National championship - no lowering the bar!

Denverexpat is correct. The goal at Duke is to win it all. Scheyer is a bit fortunate that the cupboard will be a little bare his first year. Success will be landing a Tommy Amaker type PG. A player who will do everything that he can for the team and require the same from his teammates. Maybe the freshman Brakes will be that player. Duke will sign good to great players for the next several years. As long as the players play hard and believe in the coach, it will be a successful season.

Matt Doherty went 26-7 in year one at UNC, but it wasn't a successful year because the team lost faith in him and didn't play hard in the post-season

 

[Liftee]

I have to tell you, if you look at Duke's success rate for the past 10 years, which cuts off the 2010 Natty, it includes some early round losses, some Sweet 16 and Elite 8 losses, and what, one final four and natty? I think if Scheyer recruits decently he should be able to exceed that standard and that would be a good start.

I suspect we aren't going to see the OAD's we've been seeing, which would be a shame from an excitement standpoint, but perhaps not from a result standpoint.

 

[sheyduke]

Scheyer has been the main recruiter for a lot of the elite prospects duke has gotten in the last couple of years. I don’t see a drop off. What I do see is a wide net of OAD and multi year players.
for his first season as Head coach , and coaching as one for the first time. His first big win will be a success, two wins against UNC and a tourney appearance would put him off to a good start.

 

[christophero]

Make the tournament and have some returning guys to build on. There might not be much returning talent so that would be a success. At best we will only have Moore, Blakes and Roach back. Keels maybe, but I doubt it.

 

[cballaddict]

Scheyer has been the main recruiter for a lot of the elite prospects duke has gotten in the last couple of years. I don’t see a drop off. What I do see is a wide net of OAD and multi year players.
for his first season as Head coach , and coaching as one for the first time. His first big win will be a success, two wins against UNC and a tourney appearance would put him off to a good start.

I see people mentioning that he's been the lead recruiter for a lot of top prospects, but he was the lead recruiter in convincing them to play for the greatest of all time. Now he has to sell them on playing for him. That's a completely different story.

My expectation's aren't high but I would hope to at least make it to the Round of 32 and a top 5 ACC finish.

 

[christophero]

It's the million dollar question

 

[jnastasi]

Final four/national title. That’s it.

Welcome to the big leagues Jon.

 

[timo0402]

I’ve got a ton of faith in Jon. Think he will do great. This year will be huge for him. It will benefit him greatly to have all (most of) the noise out of the way before he begins next year.

 

[sheyduke]

I see people mentioning that he's been the lead recruiter for a lot of top prospects, but he was the lead recruiter in convincing them to play for the greatest of all time. Now he has to sell them on playing for him. That's a completely different story.

My expectation's aren't high but I would hope to at least make it to the Round of 32 and a top 5 ACC finish.

We will see what he can do with his first recruiting class. All the guys Duke has offered so far speak high on Scheyer as well as coaches. Players already knew K was going to be at Duke so I don’t think his past recruiting pitches were made centered around K. Plus, K is still going to be around the program just not in the first chair.

 

[Liftee]

Scheyer's pitch now will be "join the Brotherhood. Look at the NBA and the success of the Brotherhood." That may work.

 

[dukiejay]

The expectations for Duke or our fans? I kid, partly.

Jon is going to continue recruiting the very best players in the country. I think he will have pretty good success doing that, as well.

I mean, our fans, for lack of a better term, lost their shit this past season going 13-11. Do we really think those same people will be more patient with a team comprised of multi-year players vs. OADs? I know I don’t.

The pressure on him is going to be high. He knows this. Every decision he makes that goes bad will be pointed out but the majority of fans would do better.

It’s hard for me to make any kind of reasonable expectations without knowing what the roster looks like. I expect Duke to be a winning team always and I’d be shocked if they aren’t in 2022-23....but it’s hard to get specific without knowing much of anything right now.

 

[AlanInNJ]

I agree, there's a HUGE difference from recruiting for a K coached team to recruiting for a non-K coached team. Yes, the Duke name will still carry clout on the recruiting trail. I just wonder how much.

 

[IFaZe]

I think the recruiting (the top guys we always get) will remain the same. It’s Duke. And K is always going to be in the picture( around the team) etc. until he dies. Recruits know that. They know the goats taught everything Jon knows. I think nothing really drastically changes. We will always be contenders, thanks to what K built. I can’t wait to see how he coaches in game. That’s the key though . Not only Xs and Os but the one and done drama whaterver bs . I’m excited.for , I guess, sorta a breath of fresh air sorta deal. Combing Ks knowledge with a younger mind captaining the ship.

 

[timritterus]

I don't think we can predict expectations until we have an idea of what the team will look like. If he brings in a great class of recruits and/or transfers, I'm sure they will remain high. If it's just a solid, not spectacular class, then I think people will live with making the tourney and winning a game or two.

In the long run, the expectations will definitely remain very high. Final fours, championships. But this thread is about year one.

 

[geddoughton23]

Coach Scheyer will win "enough " games in his first year. It's all about his personality. How the boosters feel about him.

John Wooden retired from UCLA in 1975 with a national title. Gene Bartow was head coach in 1976 and 1977 with records of 27-5 and 24-5. Gary Cunningham was head coach in 1978 and 1979 with records of 25-3 and 25-5. Neither was popular and departed because they weren't liked by boosters. Larry Brown and his denim suit with the clogs took the Bruins to the title game in 1980

 

[skysdad]

The expectations for Duke or our fans? I kid, partly.

Jon is going to continue recruiting the very best players in the country. I think he will have pretty good success doing that, as well.

I mean, our fans, for lack of a better term, lost their shit this past season going 13-11. Do we really think those same people will be more patient with a team comprised of multi-year players vs. OADs? I know I don’t.

The pressure on him is going to be high. He knows this. Every decision he makes that goes bad will be pointed out but the majority of fans would do better.

It’s hard for me to make any kind of reasonable expectations without knowing what the roster looks like. I expect Duke to be a winning team always and I’d be shocked if they aren’t in 2022-23....but it’s hard to get specific without knowing much of anything right now.

You are all over it as usual dj. The thing no matter how successful Coach Scheyer is in his 1st year he will be questioned by Duke fans and a few posters from this board who think they know more about the game that Coach Scheyer. They did it with the G.O.AT. and are just chomping at the bits to show their expertise and basketball I.Q. whenever we lose. It's so easy to peck away behind a keyboard for these recliner coaches. I trust Coach Scheyer because I trust Coach K and his expertise and basketball I.Q. OFC

 

[christophero]

Duke Update suggested that Blakes and Roach could be our only returning guys, and Roach could even go pro. If only Blakes comes back, that could be the first year I can remember when Duke would have no significant contributors returning. That would be a tall order for any coach, let alone a first year coach.

 

[timo0402]

Duke Update suggested that Blakes and Roach could be our only returning guys, and Roach could even go pro. If only Blakes comes back, that could be the first year I can remember when Duke would have no significant contributors returning. That would be a tall order for any coach, let alone a first year coach.

Yeah it’s certainly going to be a huge overhaul no matter how you slice it.

 

[christophero]

I have faith in Jon, despite my recent Debbie Downer posts.

 

[skysdad]

I have faith in Jon, despite my recent Debbie Downer posts.

You gotta have faith in him. Coach K does. OFC

 

[sheyduke]

The only way Roach goes pro is if 2021 brings number six. I truly think John Knows what’s ahead of him and Nolan. A new era begins.

 

[Fourteen44]

I expect an 82-50 win over UNC. They did it his senior year so why not?

 

[Mpm277]

If off to a bad start, how long do you think Duke gives him to right the ship?

 

[KDSTONE]

If off to a bad start, how long do you think Duke gives him to right the ship?

At least five years. Duke fans are known for nothing if not patience

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

While Scheyer doesn't get to run the team on his own this year, both he and Davis are starting out even in the competition for recruits. So that will be an early basis for judging success.

I assume that Roy consulted with Hubert on UNCs current offers - at least up until Roy stepped down. But are those the same players Hubert would have offered? I guess we'll see.

Meanwhile, it's on Jon to pick his future players - although I imagine he will pick K's brain a lot in making his selections.

Right now, Scheyer has issued 2 offers. One 5-star (Whitehead) and one 4-star (Lively - whom many expect to be a 5-star soon). Which is to say that, so far, he's aiming just as high as K did. The question is whether he can land those same top-tier players when he's recruiting for himself instead of for K.

Davis has 10 outstanding offers - but again, those were Roy's choices and many not fit Hubert's vision.

Davis also has one commitment - 3-star Shaver. Who I'm pretty sure was offered after Roy retired, so can be presumed to be Hubert's choice.

Does that mean Davis is aiming lower? Or is that just an isolated incident (or maybe Shaver will end up ranked a good bit higher)?

 

[geddoughton23]

I think Hubert Davis is aiming lower. Davis signed Justin McKoy, a transfer from Virginia who was ranked about 300 out of high school. He also signed transfer Brady Manek from Oklahoma. He was rated #120 out of high school.

 

[geddoughton23]

Coach Davis has offers to eleven players by my count: 6 five stars and five 4 stars. One of the four stars is Lively, and he will certainly be bumped up to five stars. Roy Williams never had more than six offers this early

 

[geddoughton23]

My free advice to Coach Scheyer is to make some more offers immediately. Duke will need to add at least seven new players next year

 

[christophero]

We will need some experienced transfers as well, as we could have historic turn over next year. The Duke UNC rivalry has always been about recruiting. We have out recruited them recently, but they have gotten guys to stay longer. It will be interesting to see where the rivalry goes.

 

[Devilinside]

At least five years. Duke fans are known for nothing if not patience

Correct. Just look at our football team.

 

[Devilinside]

Cannot really come up with expectations for John until we have results from K's last year. We lost to teams we should never have lost to last year. Another year like that, and Jon will not have much to build on. On the other hand, if we return to prominence, he will have a great start.

OFC

 

[christophero]

I think that is very true. Fair or not, we are coming off a year of not making the tournament. If we disappoint this year, say lose in the round of 32, will that make fans less patient to wait 5 years? Maybe, but it is what it is at this point. If we make a deep run this year fans may be more patient.

 

[Mac9192]

I think that is very true. Fair or not, we are coming off a year of not making the tournament. If we disappoint this year, say lose in the round of 32, will that make fans less patient to wait 5 years? Maybe, but it is what it is at this point. If we make a deep run this year fans may be more patient.

Duke fans aren’t patient. K built the program up to where expectations for the most part are title or bust. Then, add in the recruits that he’s brought in, with the media hype that comes with Duke, we have little room for error. We are the lead story when we lose, and are most everyone’s title game.

It’s made even worse that our main rival is only 8 miles down the road, and a lot of the fans can live with not winning the title as long as we beat them and go farther than them.

That will probably never change.

 

[christophero]

Jon (or anyone) will never replicate coach K's 5 titles. But could he have the same success we've had since 2011 or so? Absolutely. That might be more realistic.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

Jon (or anyone) will never replicate coach K's 5 titles. But could he have the same success we've had since 2011 or so? Absolutely. That might be more realistic.

If Jon wins a national title, 3 ACC tournament championships, and goes to 4 elite eights in his first 10 seasons I'll be tickled pink. Those statistics are skewed too. Because I truly do think the 2020 team was headed to the FF if not for Covid-19 and last year's team was making a push for the ACC tournament. Again, if not for Covid-19. Of course, I'm just speculating and I'm totally biased.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

My free advice to Coach Scheyer is to make some more offers immediately. Duke will need to add at least seven new players next year

Plus, whereas coaches like K and Roy can afford to focus on a relatively small number of targets, newcomers like Scheyer and Davis will probably need to cast a wider net.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Recruiting strategies vary widely. Even successful coaches like Bill Self sometimes have a scattergun approach to offers.

So, whereas K would typically offer 9-12 players, and Roy just a few more, Self would offer more like 40.

Different strokes.

 

[hart2chesson]

20 wins, NCAA bid and make sure his parents have seats right behind bench. Jon's mom is one of hottest Duke player moms ever!

OFC