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The New Lounge

On Israel & Iran, where do you all stand on how things are going. Is Trump handling this like he should? And I've heard rumblings between him and Tucker. Is Tucker right, or is Trump right to call him kooky? Not going to lie, after all the past administrations and wars, I'm not sure how to feel, or what to believe.

Seriously asking.
Tucker took a serious anti Trump turn when the largest investor in the Tucker Carlson Network is a Qatari sheik. He may or may not be a kook, but he’s definitely bought and paid for.
 
Kudos to Supreme Ct Justices Jackson, Kagan, Sotomoyor, et al for placing principle over politics and getting it right.

 
As of now, I give Trump a thumbs up. I don't want us to be involved in conflict. That's my number 1 along with the border. Anything more than using our bunker busters and providing assistance to Israel to finish the job, would be a disappointment for me. Nothing past bombing.
 
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As of now, I give Trump a thumbs up. I don't want us to be involved in conflict. That's my number 1 along with the border. Anything more than using our bunker busters and providing assistance to Israel to finish the job, would be a disappointment for me. Nothing past bombing.
Anything beyond that would be outside of the scope of Trump’s stated goal that Iran can’t have a nuke. So if US ground troops or regime change is on the table down the road concerns about mission creep would be valid imo. Unless Iran is dumb enough to attack the US directly I don’t think Trump would sign off on anything like that.
 
Wouldn't bombing be mission creep?
If Trump has stated that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons and the IDF doesn't have the bunker busters necessary to eliminate the threat of Fordow, then it’s not mission creep. It is the mission.
There are possibly other means for the IDF to eliminate the site, and if Trump thinks those have a high chance of success, then that may be the route chosen.

 
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If Trump has stated that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons and the IDF doesn't have the bunker busters necessary to eliminate the threat of Fordow, then it’s not mission creep. It is the mission.
There are possibly other means for the IDF to eliminate the site, and if Trump thinks those have a high chance of success, then that may be the route chosen.

How do we know Iran is close to having nuclear weapons?
 
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How do we know Iran is close to having nuclear weapons?
IAEA, which reports to the UN, has reported that Iran is enriching uranium at 60%. Once this threshold is reached, it’s generally within weeks that you can achieve the 90% weapons grade level. Unfortunately, since Iran has not “fully cooperated” with recent inspections, it’s widely believed that Iran is closer to 90% than previously reported. Iran claims it’s for energy use. Uranium for civilian purposes is enriched at 3-5% so Iran has been lying to the West about its nuclear program since its inception. The United States may have the luxury of sitting back and hoping for the best. Israel does not.

Furthermore, by going well beyond the enrichment % necessary for civilian purposes, Iran has been in violation of their nonproliferation agreements for years. The IAEA’s decision to finally cite them for noncompliance suggests that their credibility is on the line as an agency. If Iran is able to use their nuclear weapon, after Israel who’s next? Saudi Arabia? The US? Mutually assured destruction is not a strong deterrent for a death cult hell bent on martyrdom.

 
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IAEA, which reports to the UN, has reported that Iran is enriching uranium at 60%. Once this threshold is reached, it’s generally within weeks that you can achieve the 90% weapons grade level. Unfortunately, since Iran has not “fully cooperated” with recent inspections, it’s widely believed that Iran is closer to 90% than previously reported. Iran claims it’s for energy use. Uranium for civilian purposes is enriched at 3-5% so Iran has been lying to the West about its nuclear program since its inception. The United States may have the luxury of sitting back and hoping for the best. Israel does not.

Furthermore, by going well beyond the enrichment % necessary for civilian purposes, Iran has been in violation of their nonproliferation agreements for years. The IAEA’s decision to finally cite them for noncompliance suggests that their credibility is on the line as an agency. If Iran is able to use their nuclear weapon, after Israel who’s next? Saudi Arabia? The US? Mutually assured destruction is not a strong deterrent for a death cult hell bent on martyrdom.

It’s just that Netanyahu has been saying Iran was on the brink for over 30 years. If the IAEA is only citing them out of self-interest, that seems compromising.

Not only would the US have to give Israel the bunker buster, we’d have to drop it ourselves. That’s way more involved than I want us to get for something Israel can achieve on a slower timeline. I’m concerned about who else gets involved if we get involved. Russia? China? NKorea?
 
The IAEA is the best we got unfortunately. It’s given Iran more than enough time to comply. It’s waited to cite them as long as it can afford to. At some point they have to do their jobs before it’s too late.
Israel has had Mossad embedded in Iran for years. They know Iran is close.
Thirty years? Bibi has been warning of the threat of a nuclear Iran for a long time, only that it’s close to obtaining them in the last few years.

Concerns about China’s involvement are valid; Russia has its hands full. North Korea? Doubtful.
 
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