> Jay Bilas on ESPN.com
No. 5 DUKE vs. No. 12 ORAL ROBERTS
Why Duke can win: Rebounding, defense, elite size. Duke is a very young team that has been getting better and healthier over time. Jon Scheyer has guided this team to the best record of any first year head coach in Duke history, and he is now coaching the team he expected at the start of the season. The two most reliable and consistent players have been freshman
Kyle Filipowski and veteran
Jeremy Roach, both of whom have carried a significant scoring and rebounding load all season. A key for Duke has been the recent availability of shot blocker Dereck Lively II and bucket getting wing
Dariq Whitehead. Lively is a shot-blocker and shot changer, and he is an active lob threat. The biggest key has been the emergence of freshman point guard
Tyrese Proctor, who took over duties with the ball, and allows Roach to play off the ball and serve as more of a scoring and attacking guard. Proctor is an outstanding defender, as is Roach and
Mark Mitchell. Duke blocks shots and gets second shots, but the Blue Devils do not force turnovers, sporting just a -1.1 turnover margin, 14th in the ACC. This is a gap protection and rim protection team that does not create a margin with offense or turnover generation.
Why Duke can lose: Perimeter shooting, youth, turnover margin. Duke gets second chance points, but does not generate easy baskets off of its defense. And, with an unbeaten home record of 16-0, the youth of Duke has shown up on the road. Duke is just 7-8 away from Cameron Indoor Stadium, with losses to Kansas, Purdue, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Miami...a few of those by 19 points or more. The Blue Devils are an inconsistent shooting team, hitting only 32% from behind the arc, 13th in the ACC and in the bottom third of Division I. But, Duke's offensive explosion in the ACC tournament was truly impressive. Proctor's improvement, Whitehead's development, and more spread floor spacing have made Duke harder to guard. Duke's defense has carried the team all season, and it will have to carry the team in the NCAA tournament.
Best win: Best then No. 17 Miami (68-66).
Worst loss: Blown out at NC State (84-60, they didn't score in the first 7.5 minutes and never made it close despite being a 5-point favorite).
Standout player: 7'0" Freshman Center Kyle Filipowski (3 double doubles to open his collegiate career and hasn't slowed since. 5-star prospect that was the No. 4 recruit).
Rebounding: The list of teams that are better on the offensive glass than the Blue Devils is a short one, with a 38% offensive rebound rate, 6th in the nation.
High scoring game: Kyle Filipowski led this team in scoring in 12 of their first 21 games, (dropped 29 at Virginia Tech on January 23) but Jeremy Roach has been the catalyst over the past month. Those two average over 35% of Duke's points this season.
Nugget: Duke has 0 NCAA tournament wins -- ever -- when seeded 6 or worse. They are 0-2 in such spots (losing in the first round as a 6-seed in 2007 and as an 8-seed in 1996).
How Oral Roberts can win: Turnover margin, 3-point shooting, high tempo offense, experience, fearlessness. Remember when Oral Roberts beat Ohio State in the NCAA tournament behind
Max Abmas and current Texas Tech star
Kevin Obanor? Well, this version of ORU is a better team. The Golden Eagles...(I miss the Titans...The Golden Eagles mascot was hatched from a paper mache egg and his name, "Eli," is an acronym for "education, life skills, integrity." Wait, wouldn't that be "Elsi?" But, I digress...anyway, the Golden Eagles have the nation's longest win streak and can really score, averaging 84 points per game, third in the nation. Behind Abmas, now a senior that has scored over 2,500 career points, ORU hits 11 3-point field goals per game, second in the nation, and ORU is sixth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio. Abmas has put up 22 points per game, with a high of 36, and has hit over 114 3-point field goals and 147 free throws. Abmas is a flamethrower that also leads ORU in assists.
Connor Vanover, a transfer from Cal and Arkansas, is a skilled big man that has hit 97 career 3-point field goals, 45 of them this year. Vanover averages 13 points, 7 rebounds and 3 blocks, while
Issac McBride, a transfer from Vanderbilt, adds 12 points per game and has hit 60 3-point field goals at a 41% clip. This is a low turnover team that has a star in Abmas that can carry the team.
How Oral Roberts can lose: Defense, rebounding. While ORU can really score, it is not a lockdown defensive team and can give up open looks from deep. But, in the NCAA tournament, this team can be another darling. Just don't be surprised. ORU has only four losses: Houston by 38, Saint Mary's by 8, Utah State by 10, and New Mexico by 7.
Best win: February 25 at South Dakota State (69-65, impressive win despite a 2-10 FG day from Max Abmas). Worst loss: No bad losses, but did lose to Houston by 38 points on November 14.
Standout player: Senior guard Max Abmas (top-10 scorer in each of the past 3 seasons, career best FT% this season, over 36% from 3 in all 4 of his collegiate seasons)
Efficiency: A top-20 team in both turnovers committed per game and assist-to-turnover rate.
High scoring game: Abmas is the first and second option on this offense, but 7-5 Senior Connor Vanover (transfer from Arkansas) double-doubled in both the Summit semis and finals.
Nugget: Their top-3 scorers all shot over 80% from the FT line. Flaw: Despite the height of Vanover, this team was outrebounded for the season.
Winner: Duke. Rebounding will be the difference. Duke is young, which is an issue, but they are bigger and better protecting the rim.
Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper. Abmas has been there before. Duke's young guys haven't.