Beating Virginia would get us back in the discussion. Go 4-1 after that and win a few games in the ACC tournament and we could make it.
We need to beat UVA and go 4-1, but in my estimation, if we do that, we are in unless we have an embarrasing acc tournament loss (i.e. the year VT under Seth Greenberg in 09-10 missed out of ncaas, with the nail in the coffin being a second loss to the worst team in the league in the acc tournament). Couple of things...
1. Let us call a duck a duck: we are Duke. Do not tell me teams do not get a push to be in the tournament because of name (see, the year Zona made the sweet 16 as a 12, the year Zona made the tournament as a 9 and loss to Seton Hall in the first round where the winner played Duke, and the year UCLA beat SMU as a 12 seed when at best, UCLA should have been a play-in).
2. We had what, 5 games cancelled? If we go 4-1 in that stretch, which we would have most likely, how different would the argument look at 13-9?
3. It is hard to justify a road loss at a power 5 as a bad loss. You could argue last year's home loss to SFA was worst than at Miami.
4. There are a lot of teams with WTF losses.
5. Other than vs Illinois, a top 4-seeded team imho, there is no blowout losses. Very few teams can say that...