Please explain. I just don't agree that his stock is at it's highest.because he had an amazing season and won final four mop? that award does nothing for draft status quite honestly. It's a given that he'll be drafted higher next year imoOriginally posted by timo0402:
Every other variable points to having his highest draft stock now.
While it's certainly true that his stock could improve, even I would acknowledge that the risk of it falling significantly are a lot higher than the chances of it improving significantly. Right now, he's got an artificially inflated draft projection that has been buoyed by his performance against Wisconsin. Will that last through the draft? Possibly. I think the real question is whether he wants to take advantage of a unique set of circumstances to make a premature jump to the NBA, or wait until he's more prepared for the next level with the associated risk that he may not be able to maintain that draft stock if he suffers an injury or does not progress in key facets of his game. As much as I like Tyus, he's an undersized PG with mediocre to poor athleticsm (by NBA standards) who doesn't defend well and only shoots 42% from the field. Right now, NBA scouts seems to be ignoring those pretty huge warts (at least the ones driving the media speculation) because of his tremendous intangibles, leadership, basketball IQ, and capacity for thriving under pressure. However, if he comes back and plays somewhere close to the level he did this season, my guess is that a lot of the chatter around him will change a lot --- b/c there are real concerns about how his game translates to the next level. IMO, the only real argument for staying (from a basketball perspective) is that it may improve his long-term odds of staying in the league -- b/c a far more physically and mentally mature Tyus will be far better positioned to survive at the next level than the current one, which I think could easily wash out of the league by year 2 or 3 (e.g., a guy like JJ Redick may not have survived if his rookie deal had come up at 22, but had a realistic chance at 24-25 when he hit the key fulcrum of his career). We've talked about it before, but the struggles of Tyler Ennis (whose game / freshman production / strengths / weaknesses closely resembles Tyus), and Kendall Marshall to a lesser extent, clearly show how athletically demanding the NBA game can be at the PG position.Originally posted by ioliva:
Please explain. I just don't agree that his stock is at it's highest.because he had an amazing season and won final four mop? that award does nothing for draft status quite honestly. It's a given that he'll be drafted higher next year imoOriginally posted by timo0402:
Every other variable points to having his highest draft stock now.
I think that's a valid point on the front end, but how many guys declare prematurely only to end up in Europe, China, or the D-league by the age of 23? For instance, Marquise Teague -- the freshman PG on the 2011-12 UK national title team -- used a strong NCAA tourney performance as the springboard to going late in the first round. What has happened since? He spent much of his first two years in the NBA in the D-league and failed to catch onto an NBA roster in year 3, spending the entire season in the D-league without an NBA contract. Everyone (or most people) know what happened with Kendall Marshall from that same class. The same fate has befallen Jared Cunningham (#24). Fast-forward to the 2013 class, Reggie Bullock's career (#25) seems to be heading in the same direction. I bring up these comparable examples just to make the point that getting drafted somewhere in the first round is not always the end-all, be-all -- b/c merely getting drafted in the first round doesn't assure a long career or a permanent, life-altering payday that can last these guys for the rest of their lives. For whatever reason, we tend to focus only on how the NBA has changed its strategy for drafting prospects in the last 5-10 years without paying attention to how the NBA handles the influx of these kids into the league, many of whom are not prepared to play at that level.Originally posted by timo0402:
Ioliva, the chances of you actually rising your draft stock if you're him are pretty slim. He'll have to have an exceptional year next year to keep them where they are. Again, his stock will never be higher, and yes MOP in the final 4, leading your team to the championship absolutely helps his draft stock. To put it a good comparison, think of some of the players we've gone up against who's draft stock was spiked against us- CJ Mucollum of Lehigh is a great example.
Coming back another year only gives GM's and scouts another year to nitpick your game. That's why all these mock drafts every year have loads of freshmen in the first round- you dont know enough about their games. JMM probably wishes he left after his freshman year (lottery pick), same with Sheed if you actually think about it (hindsight is 20/20), both of those kids weren't (won't be) drafted in the first round, but were lottery projections after their freshmen years. There are TONS more like that.