Originally posted by DukeJim99:
Originally posted by aah555:
Originally posted by DukeJim99:
His situation reminds me a little of Trey Burke's after he had such a great year at Michigan. People looking at Trey saw that he had some big hurdles to overcome to be an NBA point guard. Size and athleticism were both below par for the NBA. But neither of those things would have improved with another year at Michigan.
Same with Tyus. He has a lot of positives to his game and his negatives aren't going to get much better with another year at Duke. Sure, he could improve his shot some and his defense a little. But the NBA drafts on potential and estimations of Tyus's NBA potential aren't going to get much better than they are today, even with another great season next at Duke next year.
Good luck to him. What a year at Duke. Hope he comes back for a degree at some point down the road.
Eh. I actually think Trey Burke would be the posterchild for staying in school for a second year. After his freshman year, Burke was a late first round / early 2nd round guy who was coming off a tremendous season (14.8 ppg, 4.7 assists on a better shooting percentage). There were some who thought Burke probably would never be a lottery pick b/c of his size / athleticism, and that he risked sliding down draft boards if he failed to significantly improve on his rookie numbers. Burke returned, and ended up having an even better soph. year that culminated in Michigan's first final four in a couple decades. Burke finished his soph. year as a consensus first team AA and put up 18.6 ppg, 6.7 assists, on 46% from the field, and ultimately went #9 in the draft -- far higher than anything thought was possible for Burke.
We've debated the Tyus situation ad nauseum (and no point in rehashing it), but, in my view, the Burke example is the one you would have picked as the poster child for returning.
This post was edited on 4/15 3:22 PM by aah555
I live 20 minutes from Ann Arbor and the people at the time around me were never discussing Trey leaving after his freshman year because he was projected to be a second round pick, from what I remember, and at least the UM fans I talked to weren't seriously concerned about him leaving. It was only after his sophomore year that people around here were seriously debating whether he should stay or go.
While most people realized Trey should declare, a LOT of people were saying he didn't have a good enough jumper, his skills wouldn't translate to the NBA, etc., based on his size and athleticism. So, these people were saying he should stay one more year. To me, as much as I hoped he'd stay personally, those arguments didn't make sense. Trey wasn't going to get taller. He wasn't going to get quicker. And his jump shot would develop a lot more playing bball full time for a living than it would when his practice time was limited due to classes, tests, etc. Trey had a better than expected year his soph year, so his stock was high despite his physical limitations. Get while the gettin's good.
I feel like it's the same for Tyus. He's not going to get taller. He's not going to get more athletic. Any downside a team sees to drafting Tyus this year will also be there a year from now. He had an amazing year and an even more amazing NCAA run. So even if you look at him and wonder whether he's really ready for the NBA considering his size and athleticism, to me you still have to conclude that it's clearly the right decision for him to go now, as far as NBA draft stock is concerned.
I'm not sure what people in Ann Arbor were debating around the water cooler, but the reality is that Burke was all bet set to leave after one year and had a change of heart at the last moment. Although Burke's draft stock was a bit worse than Tyus (probably about 8-10 spots worse), the reasoning was pretty similar.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/18299209/did-sullinger-stay-too-long-is-burke-leaving-too-early
In reporting that Burke was leaving, this is what CBS Sports said:
We at CBSSports.com have no doubt that Burke has not formally declared for the NBA Draft and that he's still enrolled at the University of Michigan, but Goodman's sources insist Burke will formally declare before the April 29 deadline, meaning the Wolverines will drop when we update the
Ridiculously Early Preseason Top 25 (and one). It also means Burke might've learned a lesson from Sullinger. Burke, unlike Sullinger, doesn't seem interested in delaying a paycheck to try to lead his school to a Final Four. His stock is high in a weak draft for point guards, so he's going now. Consequently, he won't be over-scouted as a sophomore like Sullinger was over-scouted as a sophomore, and so two Columbus natives who attended different Big Ten universities will both be rich soon.
In a different article, this is how his decision was described: This is also an extremely weak point guard crop, so Burke -- according to several NBA executives -- has a chance to be taken in the first round.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/18297608/trey-burke-expected-to-leave-michigan-for-nba
Another article from the following year: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/22065554/that-extra-year-at-michigan-did-trey-burke-good
It was around this time last year when Burke was very close to entering the NBA Draft but returned to the Big Ten in part because he was only considered a borderline first-round pick. Had he slipped into the second round, Burke would've been guaranteed nothing. But now, even if he's the final pick in the lottery, Burke will get a guaranteed two-year deal worth more than $3.2 million. In other words, he made money this season while leading the Wolverines to the national title game and winning various National Player of the Year awards, among them the Naismith Award and the Wooden Award.
This is all public record, and Burke even acknowledged that he had a change of heart after initially deciding to declare. Really, the major difference between the two is that Tyus had a good NCAA tourney and was the star in the 2nd half of the national title game -- which moved his projections up from around 26-30+ to a bit more solid footing of around 20-25. If Duke had gone out in the Sweet 16, Tyus / Burke would have faced nearly identical decisions.
This post was edited on 4/15 4:51 PM by aah555