Originally posted by youngman42:
Originally posted by aah555:
Originally posted by Tim1515:
I agree that our number would be higher based part way through the season. Mixing in zone has changed this team and so our numbers look worse.
At the same time Okafors injury hurts most on the defensive end. HIs decreased movement is much more noticeable on that end of the floor.
This team is good enough to get to the elite 8 on talent. The Zags or Cyclones will be really difficult.
Yes, Okafor's D has been poor for much of the year -- but it seems even a little worse after the ankle injury. Hopefully this week off + the fact that the game on Friday probably won't push him to play heavy minutes will give him some time to get a little healthier.
While we certainly can lose before the elite 8, the draw is pretty good to getting that far. We avoided the real landmines on the 4/5 seedline -- i.e., UNC and MD. A Gonzaga or Iowa State elite 8 matchup would be quite difficult, but let's see how the next couple week play out. Gonzaga's had a tremendous year and looked very good in the Arizona game I watched, before basically choking the game away. With that said, they only have 1 RPI top 30 win -- against a SMU team that doesn't have any great wins itself -- and Mark Few has never advanced past the Sweet 16. It's not unreasonable to think they may not make it. As for ISU, they're incredibly dangerous -- but also very volatile -- i.e., 3 losses to teams that finished with losing records. I do think they have a good draw to make the elite 8 -- particularly if Gonzaga stumbles -- but I wouldn't be shocked if they suffer a where did that come from loss. It's a team that has nobody who can even remotely handle Okafor (only 2 regular rotation players over 6'6 -- George Niang at 6'8 230 and Jameel McKay at 6'9 215), doesn't rebound well, and shoots an incredibly high volume of 3s -- a 100 more than even Duke. Definitely a dangerous team if they're hitting their shots, but definitely a beatable team -- especially outside of their home gym.
I was really hoping either the Zags or Wisconsin would be in UK's bracket. I think they match up well with them. Putting Kansas in with UK is pretty boring. I don't even think Kansas will make it to the elite 8. They are not a very good team.
The problem Duke has is defensive; esp. dealing with players (particularly wings and PFs) that are aggressive and athletic.
Okafor is a lumbering giant right now and just is not a defensive threat in the middle - there's no intimidation factor on the inside (unlike UK whose centers, while not as talented or physical offensively, bring a great deal more to the table in athleticism on the defensive end).
Winslow has the athleticism and physicality but still struggles as a freshman from time to time.
Jefferson is just so tentative and passive on D.
The schedule could fall favorably for Duke to make it to the FF (and I think they got a good bracket). But, ultimately, if I just step back and look at the team's strengths and weaknesses, I think Duke can only go as far as the sweet 16/elite 8.
