KenPom Defense

[dukiejay]

After being consistently better for about a month (and I don't mean better every game, but better effort and making small strides), our defense took a major nose dive last night. We had climbed our way back into the 40s and probably had played at a level in the 20s the past eight or nine games.

Now we stand at 81. That's not good. It's a metric number so I know it's not what defines this team....but it's worrisome, nonetheless.

In the last 10 years, the national champion with the worst adjusted defense by KenPom was UNC in 2009. They were 21. Also in the past 10 years only one of the 40 teams who have made the Final Four had a worse adjusted defense than what we do now. That was VCU a few years back.

Again, it's not time to mail it in, give up, etc. But our porous defensive numbers are very concerning, IMO. We've been unbelievable in late game situations (the difference from last year) finding ways to win and that's a credit to our kids. My main concern is that it's February 26th and our defense is getting no better. At all.

As a side note....we have the #1 offense in the country. And it would appear that if we're going to advance deep and have a chance our offense will have to continue getting better, too.

 

[LetsGoDukies]

I pay very close attention to the KenPom defensive stats and it is very troubling. I just don't see us going deep in the tourney with our defensive flaws. We have to get better on D that's all there is to it.

 

[aah555]

Yup. Frankly, I find Coach K's insistence on trying to get these guys to play man-to-man defense somewhat misguided.

While it's true our defense has been better of late, most of our better defensive performances came while playing zone -- whether it by Louisville, parts of Pitt and St. John's, the end of UVA, Clemson. Our zone still needs a lot of work -- and I'm disappointed that it doesn't seem as if K's been prioritizing it's improvement, but I do find K's insistence on salvaging his pressure man-to-man D of old to be jeopardizing this team's chances in the NCAAs. I've been saying this for weeks, but I really do not understand why K is not using zone as our base defense (and spending almost all our time practicing it) -- particularly since we dismissed arguably our best on-the-ball defender (Sheed).

UNC, for instance, was a team screaming to be zoned -- especially once Okafor's mobility was compromised, making him a highly ineffective help defender once UNC pulled him out on ball screens. But yet, we inexplicably stayed with a man-to-man scheme (with no true PF) that we getting absolutely crushed on the glass every time Okafor was pulled out of the paint.

With the offense we have and the length we have on the front line (if we actually played it), we can be a decent enough of a zone team to win a title. However, our man-to-man defense is going to get us eliminated in the second round of the tourney if we face a team with good guards who can make plays one-on-one. Guards with quickness and one-on-one playmaking ability can get into the lane at will against our man-to-man defense, and Okafor simply does not have the awareness / defensive acumen to act as an effective help defender.



This post was edited on 2/26 11:47 AM by aah555

 

[HuffyJB]

Last night against VT, K used multiple zone looks when the man was ineffective and they didn't work very well either. VT knocked down threes against the zone, and got into the lane consistently against the man. To have genuine championship aspirations they definitely need to find a way to guard better. As DJ alluded to in the OP, they've show some flashes (last night not being one of them).

 

[aah555]

Originally posted by HuffyJ
Last night against VT, K used multiple zone looks when the man was ineffective and they didn't work very well either. VT knocked down threes against the zone, and got into the lane consistently against the man. To have genuine championship aspirations they definitely need to find a way to guard better. As DJ alluded to in the OP, they've show some flashes (last night not being one of them).

Couple points. One, it frankly looked as if were completely unprepared to play the zone last night -- which suggests that we did not practice it much (if at all) in prep. for this game. Two, unless you're Syracuse, a zone is not going to eliminate all open shots. It's merely going to force teams into more open, but lower percentage looks. To make it work, you need to stick with it over an extended period of time. Part of the reason Va Tech made those 3s is that all their guys had built up so much confidence going against our man-to-man defense. The hope with a zone is that, over time, shooters will come back to the mean.

Aside from ND at home, I've really seen little to no evidence that our man-to-man D has any hope of being anything other than bad (at least since ACC play began). The zone is the only D that's shown flashes of potential.

This post was edited on 2/26 12:31 PM by aah555

 

[timo0402]

Certainly an issue, we can't be this inconsistent. We've had great efforts on the defensive end in recent weeks, but we can't lay an egg on that end like we did last night. To me it's a lot more to do with effort than X's and O's. Case in point, we had multiple times last night where we'd hold them for 30 seconds or so on the shot clock then they'd score. That can't happen. Have to play the entire 35.

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

Unfortunately it is what it is. Defense is our weakness (along with poor ft shooting...at times). We're capable of playing pretty decent defense, but it's sporadic. Also, I think we have a tendency to play to the level of our competition.

We're an offensive powerhouse, and I think Quinn, and Tyus sometimes save their energy for that side of the court. Quinn has been sensational offensively for the last 4 or 5 games, but his minutes are also extremely high. He has played 45, 39, 45, 40, and 40 minutes in his last 5 games. Missed only 1 minutes in total, while playing 2 OT games. Tyus has played 45, 39, and 43 minutes in his last 3 games. I'm not a believer in the 'tired legs syndrome', but that's a lot of minutes lately, and there is a tendency to 'rest' somewhere. So, I think that could be a little part of it this late in the season.

On the bright side...our team is resilient. Hopefully, we can find a little more defense, and then ride our offense as far as it will take us...and I think it's good enough to take us a long ways. We'll have to wait, and see, but I'm enjoying our team for what it brings us.

OFC

 

[mo.st.dukie]

What's more interesting/concerning than any numerical measurement is what Coach K said about it last night. He said the practices had been very light lately due to having so few players and that had a lot to do with the bad defense. That's not going to change, it's not like we can go pick up a free agent or make a trade. Of course it was even worse this week since Jah's injury took the numbers down to 7.

 

[crazyduke3]

A shared concern, it seems with this team it's always 1 step forward two steps back on defense. It would have been one thing if they were just decent on defense last night, but they were awful.

 

[aah555]

Originally posted by mo.st.dukie:
What's more interesting/concerning than any numerical measurement is what Coach K said about it last night. He said the practices had been very light lately due to having so few players and that had a lot to do with the bad defense. That's not going to change, it's not like we can go pick up a free agent or make a trade. Of course it was even worse this week since Jah's injury took the numbers down to 7.

It may be true that practice has been lighter, but that's just an excuse. As an initial matter, Obi is there -- so even without Jah, we're at 8. Also, look at UVA, for instance. With 2 of their starters currently out, I think they're down to 9 healthy scholarship players (and go back to 10 when Parrentes returns). We're normally at 9. That's not great, but common -- UVA just held a decent team to 34 points on their home court.

I know I'm coming off as critical, but our terrible D IMO falls squarely on Coach K's shoulder. You could make excuses that our lack of a true C made things difficult last year, but there's really no explanation for how poor our defense has been this year. We've got two 7 foot bigs with decent athleticism. We've got a pretty good / mobile defensive 4 in Jefferson. We've got pretty good athletes to play the 3 in Winslow and Jones, and Grayson, Tyus, and Cook are not exactly Greg Paulus. There's more than enough athleticism to put together a serviceable defensive squad. While I'm not suggesting we should be Kentucky, it's shocking to me how so many teams are having their best offensive nights against us.

 

[BornaBlueDevil]

Well, when we got smoked by Miami, Jim Larranaga and Angel Rodriguez did us a massive favor by flat out telling us that our pressure m2m style is stupid... It would seem we've forgotten that message.

The link is to a JWill tweet last night and further proof that we are not the only ones cringing every time we see the team try to guard 40ft from the basket.

Love this team, but I'll admit the individual defense is bad... However, our coaches/gameplan needs to set our players up for success. Help the team win, that's all i'm asking

https://twitter.com/RealJayWilliams/status/570791291505774593

 

[chov1125]

Defense: It is frustrating because we all saw the effort against Notre Dame and I haven't seen that type of intensity on defense in any game since. Maybe Notre Dame isn't that quick and maybe that is why our guards were able to be so disruptive but I would love to see some full court or 3/4 court trapping situations just to try and manufacture some turnovers. There is no point debating man vs zone because our zone is just as slow as our man. We throw the kitchen sink at teams and hope the mix alone will result in some needed stops. At this point in the year it is what it is, but I would still love to see that intensity I saw against Notre Dame. They were not comfortable all game and panic causes turnovers.

Offense: We are going to continue to get good looks on offense and we have to continue to knock them down...The difference between last year and this year is our balance on offense...Last year it was pass pass pass and hope someone made a play...We lost a lot of games down the stretch because we had no balance....This year we have the big man....The big man not only puts up his 20 and 10 but he attracts so much attention that he creates good looks for others....We didn't have that last year and it's a major reason why we are where we are.


In sum, I will say again I would love to see some 3/4 court or full court traps because our offense is so efficient that we don't need to keep teams in the 50's to win, but we can't let them get in the 80's. If we give up some easy buckets so be it (we have been giving them up all year) but if we can just find a way to strip teams of a handful of extra possessions per game we start to win these games comfortably rather than in the last 4 minutes or overtime.

 

[chov1125]

Originally posted by BornaBlueDevil:
Well, when we got smoked by Miami, Jim Larranaga and Angel Rodriguez did us a massive favor by flat out telling us that our pressure m2m style is stupid... It would seem we've forgotten that message.

The link is to a JWill tweet last night and further proof that we are not the only ones cringing every time we see the team try to guard 40ft from the basket.

Love this team, but I'll admit the individual defense is bad... However, our coaches/gameplan needs to set our players up for success. Help the team win, that's all i'm asking

While I do agree with this I also saw a team knock down 12 3's against us last night. This team is not nearly long enough at the guard positions to pack it in and play straight zone like our national championship team did in 2010. Simply put we struggle at on ball defense help defense and other than Justise (a non center) we have no rim protectors. I don't think there is an easy solution other than fight like hell to get as many stops as possible and use our strength as the most efficient offense in the nation to win games.

 

[Tim1515]

Imo last nights struggle guarding 3s had a lot to do with Okafors somewhat limited ankle. The 2-3 typically isn't good at stopping 3s. That has been our main defense of late but Tech was making everything. When K went to the 3-2 they moved scored a handful of open corner 3s on Jahs side and he was slow to get out.

basically I don't expect last night will be the norm.

 

[aah555]

Originally posted by chov1125:

Originally posted by BornaBlueDevil:
Well, when we got smoked by Miami, Jim Larranaga and Angel Rodriguez did us a massive favor by flat out telling us that our pressure m2m style is stupid... It would seem we've forgotten that message.

The link is to a JWill tweet last night and further proof that we are not the only ones cringing every time we see the team try to guard 40ft from the basket.

Love this team, but I'll admit the individual defense is bad... However, our coaches/gameplan needs to set our players up for success. Help the team win, that's all i'm asking

While I do agree with this I also saw a team knock down 12 3's against us last night. This team is not nearly long enough at the guard positions to pack it in and play straight zone like our national championship team did in 2010. Simply put we struggle at on ball defense help defense and other than Justise (a non center) we have no rim protectors. I don't think there is an easy solution other than fight like hell to get as many stops as possible and use our strength as the most efficient offense in the nation to win games.

While obviously there's some truth to the length of their guards, Okafor is definitely a rim protector when he's in position. My god. He's 6'11 with a 7'5 wingspan. He's a rim protector without even jumping. Then obviously we have Amile and Marshall available if we want more length near the rim.

With regard to the 2010 team, it didn't play zone -- but it did play a more conservative style of man-to-man. I agree that this team's lack of length on the perimeter / lack of defensive acumen means this group may not be as effective as the 2010 team defensively. But that 2010 team was also ranked as a top 5-10 defensive squad. At this point, nobody's expecting or hoping for a top 10 defense. Just something respectable for a team with this kind of talent level.

The 12 3s were a problem, but they were symptomatic of the fact that Va Tech could get into the middle of our defense with impunity. When you're building confidence by getting any shot you want in the paint and taking step-in 3s, you're going to do well. Although our guards are short, they're not midgets. If our guards were in position, had a hand-up, and they were just hitting shots in our guard's face -- that would be one thing. But that's not the case. Guys are just wide open. That has nothing to do with length.

 

[Dukesince90]

I think mixing our defenses up throughout the game is our best chance. I've always liked keeping the other team guessing on what they're going to see defensively. If we're going to extend our M2M in the half court and get torched, why not gamble with full court pressure more and mix it in with some zone to try to keep our players fresh. I liked what I saw defensively vs Clemson. I'm still not too down on this team from last night. We're young and play to our opponents level, we just have to get through the first round of the NCAA. That's what concerns me the most, after that I feel good about our chances getting to the Final 4!

 

[aah555]

Originally posted by chov1125:
Defense: It is frustrating because we all saw the effort against Notre Dame and I haven't seen that type of intensity on defense in any game since. Maybe Notre Dame isn't that quick and maybe that is why our guards were able to be so disruptive but I would love to see some full court or 3/4 court trapping situations just to try and manufacture some turnovers. There is no point debating man vs zone because our zone is just as slow as our man. We throw the kitchen sink at teams and hope the mix alone will result in some needed stops. At this point in the year it is what it is, but I would still love to see that intensity I saw against Notre Dame. They were not comfortable all game and panic causes turnovers.

Offense: We are going to continue to get good looks on offense and we have to continue to knock them down...The difference between last year and this year is our balance on offense...Last year it was pass pass pass and hope someone made a play...We lost a lot of games down the stretch because we had no balance....This year we have the big man....The big man not only puts up his 20 and 10 but he attracts so much attention that he creates good looks for others....We didn't have that last year and it's a major reason why we are where we are.


In sum, I will say again I would love to see some 3/4 court or full court traps because our offense is so efficient that we don't need to keep teams in the 50's to win, but we can't let them get in the 80's. If we give up some easy buckets so be it (we have been giving them up all year) but if we can just find a way to strip teams of a handful of extra possessions per game we start to win these games comfortably rather than in the last 4 minutes or overtime.

The difference with a zone is (i) you've got more help defense; (ii) the big guys are in position to contest, as they're not being dragged out of the lane. Against St. John's, for instance, it wasn't that they failed to get shots. It's just that the shots they were getting suddenly became mid-range jumpers -- a far lower percentage / efficient shot than a layup or a 3 pointer. I'd add that I do think we need to get Amile in the game more. I think we're just giving up the one defensive asset we do have (frontcourt length) when we go with the 3 guard + Winslow look.

This post was edited on 2/26 3:31 PM by aah555

 

[madrussian]

first of all, thanks for the post jay. its great to get the info on the board.

the defense last nite was definitely as bad as i have ever seen from a game where we won. thats for sure. when we went man to man there really was no help side defense - that was until VT's final possession in reg and we got a stop when we needed it. i think the problem is several issues - overall commitment to defensive intensity, lack of understanding, and jah's recent injury.

last nite i thought the zone changed the game around. i hate to say it but they look much more comfortable in the zone, we were trailing by 8, went zone and got back in the game.

i too am extremely worried about our defense and our ability to survive a poor shooting night.but i am going to blame this decline on jah's injury.

the intangibles for this team are huge. if they are in it at the end of the game - i wouldn't want to bet against us.

 

[gottagonow]

Sure we have problems as a team, problems that can bite us in the buttocks just like every team in the country. Ours are a sometimes god awful defense and awful FT shooting by a few players and what I remember seeing too much of, protecting the basketball from turnovers such as traveling and lackluster passes. Another concern I have is we have a tendency to take bad shots when a pass out would be better, but everyone does that. These shortcomings can easily end our season in a singe loss tournament like the NCAA. However we are in the same boat as every other team in the land as there is no perfect team with the near exception of UK who is probably a few points better than anyone but they have a few concerns that could send them home also. On a cold shooting night they might leave the tournament early.

Point is, there is no team that cannot lose on a given night and theres no team that will play great ball every night. I personally think we've only played great in one game this year but we all know you don't have to play great to win, as we have proven this over and over. I got upset at the boys last night for not killing VT and I have got to learn there are no killer teams.


ofc

 

[ChapelTower]

Very much in agreement that we should play zone most of the time.

Our guys are either too slow laterally or too lazy/tired (or both) to play man. If you recall the last two points VT scored in regulation -- Tyus never bothered to fight thru the screen. He just casually trailed the VT player over the screen and gave him a uncontested 10 ft pull up.

I think a zone can hide the slowness/laziness much better. Even if the other team shoots a three (off dribble or a skip pass), the odds would be in our favor as long as we run out with a hand up to bother the shooter somewhat. It is the layup/dunk city and totally open kickout three that killed us in the years past and this season.

Our zone does not need to be great. Our awesome offense can compensate a lot, as long as the D is better than the complete disaster that is our aggressive man D. Every time we came back from behind this year, it was the zone defense that stopped the bleeding just enough to give our offense a chance to catch up. I am confident that VT game would not have been close if we had started the zone in the first half.

Don't understand why we do not just play the zone as much as we could now, to get better at it to prepare for March.

 

[denniden]

^ VT shoots the 3 better than anyone in the ACC as a team. Tough night for the zone. They can shoot it and they certainly proved that last night.

 

[youngman42]

One of the central reasons D is so vital is that it is nearly impossible to sustain great offensive production in both halves of 7 straight games to win it all. If the D is not there, that's the only hope.

Those rankings are disturbing.

I, too, think practicing more zone would help. And, that J-Will tweet is dead on - we should not defend beyond the 3 point line. But, we've been talking about that on the board here for several weeks now.

One thing I would like to see is more of Marshall Plumlee. In the game without Jah against Clemson, we gave up 56 points and played very good D. Granted, Clemson is not a great offensive team. However, the D was much more intense.

Jah is a great offensive weapon. But, his feet are very slow on D and that has only been exacerbated by the ankle injury. I would like to see Plumlee get some serious minutes there, rest Jah for the bigger games in the tourney so his ankle is 100%.

With 'Cuse and Wake at home (Cuse will not be easy), I think we can give Marshall more minutes and he'll be psyched to play great D. I think we can get the team pumped up for those games and give Jah some rest and pick up the D. Maybe let Marshall get around 15 or so.

But, more zone.

 

[Irish Assassin]

Okafor is lazy defender. Teams are not afraid to go right at him and Jefferson. Jefferson just doesnt have the talent to be a great defender, Okafor does, hes just lazy. Not gonna win with your best player being one of the worse defenders on the team.

 

[zJMc09]

I think the defensive flaws can be hidden until the S16 or so...but then, who knows. The team has shown the ability to lock down, and beat damn good teams while using bad/good/mediocre defense...but to consistently do it, while also having everything go right offensively? Eh who knows. Going to take some luck this year to buck KenPom's trend.

 

[dbav]

I think it was mentioned above, but I do take heart in the fact that we play to our competition. I think this team needs to feel like it's a big game to really play their best and they need a certain amount of pressure.

I feel like the poorest defensive performances this season have come against middle-of-the-road teams or worse (State, Miami, GT, VT). That's not to insult those teams, but we had a schedule full of top 15 teams and some were just better than others. I thought our best defensive performances came against better teams (ND, Louisville, Wisconsin). There are some exceptions to that like UNCheat. There are also some outliers like Virginia where it is hard to judge because they slow the game down and like to keep the scores low, but I thought we did a great job in the closing minutes of that one.

I know the accuracy of KenPom, but I would also like to see breakdowns of defensive ratings by strength of the opposing team. ND showed us that when we have an emotional game like that, we can be fantastic on defense. I think the KenPom rating is alarming, but I feel like this team gets up for what they perceive to be the "big" games, and that is where I get some confidence.

 

[GAAP]

Originally posted by dukiejay:


Now we stand at 81. That's not good. It's a metric number so I know it's not what defines this team....but it's worrisome, nonetheless.

If I recall correctly, we were at #52 before the VT game. So 1 game cost us nearly 30 spots in the season-long ratings?

 

[youngman42]

Originally posted by dbav:
I think it was mentioned above, but I do take heart in the fact that we play to our competition. I think this team needs to feel like it's a big game to really play their best and they need a certain amount of pressure.

I feel like the poorest defensive performances this season have come against middle-of-the-road teams or worse (State, Miami, GT, VT). That's not to insult those teams, but we had a schedule full of top 15 teams and some were just better than others. I thought our best defensive performances came against better teams (ND, Louisville, Wisconsin). There are some exceptions to that like UNCheat. There are also some outliers like Virginia where it is hard to judge because they slow the game down and like to keep the scores low, but I thought we did a great job in the closing minutes of that one.

I know the accuracy of KenPom, but I would also like to see breakdowns of defensive ratings by strength of the opposing team. ND showed us that when we have an emotional game like that, we can be fantastic on defense. I think the KenPom rating is alarming, but I feel like this team gets up for what they perceive to be the "big" games, and that is where I get some confidence.

Very good point, dbav.

I think they have done this - with the exception of UNC.

Their defensive intensity, however, against Clemson was very good as well (I think that not having Jah in the lineup made every player pick up their intensity).

I suspect this is a product in part of being young (3 freshman starters).

Hoping they can pick up the intensity on D and remain confident.

 

[dukiejay]

Originally posted by GAAP:

Originally posted by dukiejay:


Now we stand at 81. That's not good. It's a metric number so I know it's not what defines this team....but it's worrisome, nonetheless.

If I recall correctly, we were at #52 before the VT game. So 1 game cost us nearly 30 spots in the season-long ratings?

Yes. A good game tomorrow could probably vault us back into the top 60 too. But kenpom's stats take into account the season. When you're about the 45-50 line you're muddled together with a lot of teams. So one or two games can really lower that number.

Like I said, it's a metric....but our defense has been erratic all season. So, IMO, it's a concern going forward.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

Originally posted by dukiejay:

Originally posted by GAAP:

Originally posted by dukiejay:


Now we stand at 81. That's not good. It's a metric number so I know it's not what defines this team....but it's worrisome, nonetheless.

If I recall correctly, we were at #52 before the VT game. So 1 game cost us nearly 30 spots in the season-long ratings?

Yes. A good game tomorrow could probably vault us back into the top 60 too. But kenpom's stats take into account the season. When you're about the 45-50 line you're muddled together with a lot of teams. So one or two games can really lower that number.

Like I said, it's a metric....but our defense has been erratic all season. So, IMO, it's a concern going forward.

All things being considered, let's say the last three games of our season are wins and that we give our best defensive performance for each game. How far up could we realistically move to dukiejay? I only ask this because you seem to follow this more than most and have a better good understanding of what it takes to move up or down.

 

[aah555]

I have voiced my concerns about our D, and think the kenpom numbers are alarming.

With that said, the stat's Kenpom are a little dishonest b/c they reflect the end-of-year numbers (after the NCAAs) -- rather than the end of regular season numbers. A team like Michigan in 12-13 that made the title game looks really strong on kenpom now (#4), and statistically even looks to have had a non-atrocious defense (#48). But, if you had actually looked at their numbers pre-NCAA tourney, you'd have walked away with a completely different impression on their chances. Reality is that they played 5 great games against good competition and significantly improved their numbers across-the-board during the tourney. While the Kenpom website would make it seem as if their model could have plausibly predicted Michigan's final four / title run, reality is that the Kenpom viewed Michigan as nothing more than an average 4 seed as of this time in 2013. I say that to make the point that Kenpom is better as a retrospective tool, than as a predictive tool for what will happen in the NCAAs.

 

[dukiejay]

^ Well stated.

bleed....people fall in love with these numbers and that's not my intent. But we're not a very good defensive team. That doesn't mean we can go deep because we can. As aah said, we're looking at the final numbers from previous years and not to-date numbers.

To answer your question, I don't see a way we climb into the top 50 after next Saturday, but it's possible.

 

[dukiejay]

And so you can see how fluid, or not fluid KenPom can be, we jumped up to 79 after the games last night.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

Originally posted by dukiejay:
^ Well stated.

bleed....people fall in love with these numbers and that's not my intent. But we're not a very good defensive team. That doesn't mean we can go deep because we can. As aah said, we're looking at the final numbers from previous years and not to-date numbers.

To answer your question, I don't see a way we climb into the top 50 after next Saturday, but it's possible.

Gotcha man. I understand what you mean. I think we often get caught up in the numbers of everything, however, there is always a chance. And this team can defy the odds I believe. But, I am just trying to be optimistic. Thanks for the feedback!

 

[DukeDenver]

To add to what you folks are saying, I think our guards plus Winslow can really play defense when they commit to it. I've seen Cook and Winslow be really disruptive against great guards. Amile has shown he can defend as well. Perhaps we just selectively play hard on defense in the interest of not completely burning out in games we should win anyway.

Big Jah is the only one that may not be able to muster good defense in crunch time. Our bench is certainly capable of decent defense. If we can score 80+, spirited (perhaps even mistake prone) defense should still be enough to win against anyone. After the first round, it's game by game. Nothing will surprise me.

 

[LetsGoDukies]

Here's a good read that references the KenPom stats...

http://247sports.com/Article/What-makes-a-Final-Four-team-35899762

 

[jnastasi]

Very alarming to say the least. If you're not concerned about these stats then you're just plain living in denial. It's the one reason I don't think we make the final four. With that said though, barring a first round knockout, I'm really proud of the way this team has fought this year. They don't roll over and die like some of the younger teams in the past. It's another reason why I give us a chance to make a run.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

Originally posted by LetsGoDukies:
Here's a good read that references the KenPom stats...

http://247sports.com/Article/What-makes-a-Final-Four-team-35899762

Good article, but, man is that enough to give me a headache. In my best Christopher Walken, "Man...I'm not so good with numbers." Hopefully, we can improve our D by tourney time enough that we can make a deep run. I think we can, and will. But we have to play better than we did at VT, State, and at home against NC, GT, and Miami.

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

No one is denying our defense isn't a problem. We've shown that, on occasion, we can play pretty good defense, but we're going to have to dance with the one that's taking us to the prom...offense. Numbers don't tell it all, and in the link up above it's lists the 11 Final Four candidates by KenPom's numbers. Out of those 11 teams, we beat 2 of them...on their home court. I still believe we've got as good a chance as anyone not named Kentucky (and even they're not a lock imo).

OFC

 

[K-oach Q]

I would like to see our defensive ranking minus say our three worst games. Kind of like a handicap in golf...I think that would be a more accurate representation of our defensive rankings. Also consider our schedule...we've been pretty good against good teams I think it's natural a young team has some let downs against bad teams. I'm not advocating were some defensive juggernaut just that we are better than our ranking. I'm not sure what that is exactly, just better.

Also I kind of discount the VT game. You know Okafor hasn't practiced since the UNC game. It's amazing really his conditioning was what it was for VT, and he clearly couldn't move on the high ball screen. I know he is not great at defending it but I'm pretty sure he also isn't that bad.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

Originally posted by K-oach Q:
I would like to see our defensive ranking minus say our three worst games. Kind of like a handicap in golf...I think that would be a more accurate representation of our defensive rankings. Also consider our schedule...we've been pretty good against good teams I think it's natural a young team has some let downs against bad teams. I'm not advocating were some defensive juggernaut just that we are better than our ranking. I'm not sure what that is exactly, just better.

Also I kind of discount the VT game. You know Okafor hasn't practiced since the UNC game. It's amazing really his conditioning was what it was for VT, and he clearly couldn't move on the high ball screen. I know he is not great at defending it but I'm pretty sure he also isn't that bad.

You make some great points and I am keen on your observation concerning having a handicap. I am sure that would alter things a great deal. Say if we took out Miami, State, and Vt, how would we look? And I also think Jah's D is not as bad as some have said. I think I read it in this thread or possibly another one, that someone pointed out that he is a freshman. And we all know that freshman have their weaknesses. He isn't going to be perfect. That being said, his D could improve quite a bit in the next coming weeks. There is still time. I know this team can play good to great D, because we have seen it in flashes and in the entire Notre Dame game.