Just read on SB Nation (whatever that is) that they rate Winslow #2 in the draft and Okafor #3. Towns is #1. Jones was like #20...I forget. Lots of talking heads.
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Draft
- Thread starter Willcampbell
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Tyus only one with a real decision to make here. He needs to get Tyler Ennis' phone number and see if he could do it all over again if he'd still go pro (taking Syracuse sanctions out of play).
To me for the NBA he is very close in a lot of ways to Tyler Ennis from Syracuse last year.
-Super clutch, great college PG.
-Undersized in height: Tyus 6-1, Ennis 6-2. Way undersized in strength.
-Not great at anything other than being clutch, good at a lot. Not great shooters. Not great distributers. Not great athletes.
Freshman stats:
Tyus - 11.8 ppg, 5.6 assists, 3.5 rbs, 44% 2, 37.9% 3.
Ennis - 12.9 ppg, 5.5 assists, 3.4 rbs, 41% 2, 35.3% 3.
Ennis Drafted 18th overall 28 NBA games this year, avg'ing 12 minutes, 3.8 ppg. 9 games in the D-League.
Tyus ranked by DraftExpress as 21st best NBA prospect, mocked at 20 on NBADraft.net.
My greed and my honest opinion is he definitely could use another year to get great at shooting and add strength. Yet, like Ennis, his draft stock would probably not be as high next year as it is this year, so he'll wisely take the money and run. I just wouldn't expect much more than what we've seen from Ennis this year, depending on the situation he's thrown into.
To me for the NBA he is very close in a lot of ways to Tyler Ennis from Syracuse last year.
-Super clutch, great college PG.
-Undersized in height: Tyus 6-1, Ennis 6-2. Way undersized in strength.
-Not great at anything other than being clutch, good at a lot. Not great shooters. Not great distributers. Not great athletes.
Freshman stats:
Tyus - 11.8 ppg, 5.6 assists, 3.5 rbs, 44% 2, 37.9% 3.
Ennis - 12.9 ppg, 5.5 assists, 3.4 rbs, 41% 2, 35.3% 3.
Ennis Drafted 18th overall 28 NBA games this year, avg'ing 12 minutes, 3.8 ppg. 9 games in the D-League.
Tyus ranked by DraftExpress as 21st best NBA prospect, mocked at 20 on NBADraft.net.
My greed and my honest opinion is he definitely could use another year to get great at shooting and add strength. Yet, like Ennis, his draft stock would probably not be as high next year as it is this year, so he'll wisely take the money and run. I just wouldn't expect much more than what we've seen from Ennis this year, depending on the situation he's thrown into.
I've felt for awhile that Justise is a top 5 pick. But if I have the #1 pick I'm taking Jah. He'll be a beast after he adjusts to the game, and gets into NBA shape. He may not ever be as good as Duncan, but I think he's capable of being a similar type player.
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Curious to see if the Sixers end up with Okafor or Towns, since they already have Noel and Embiid. I think they should start all of them...no trades!
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I would wage that Ennis would do the same thing all over again. He is playing in the NBA and getting paid better than 99% of the world while doing so. Also, Ennis would have been a sophomore in college this year. What unrealistic expectations did people have for a #18 pick in the NBA draft? How many people in that slot are stars right away? Down the road is where those types turn into players on that level.
I honestly think that people who write about kids needing to return to school have not a single clue about how things work. I mean, getting paid to learn on the job is such a bad thing, right? (sarcasm)
Agree, as I said he is likely gone. Just saying, maybe being traded midseason and spending time in the DLeague would be good info for a kid trying to make the decision to leave a program like Duke.
I have said all year long, if Duke has the kind of success we think they can and want them to have, then we will gladly wish these kids well after this year, and that includes Tyus. Welp, they did it, not sure what Tyus gains by coming back next year. If he really thinks his draft stock can go up next year, than that makes sense. But lets be honest....he just lead our team to a national title and was the MOP. Thank you Tyus for your time at Duke, couldn't be more proud.
I think someone takes a chance on him late lottery, i really do. His physical stature is the only thing that is really a negative (while i understand that's a big negative) he's only 19 and will keep getting smarter. That is scary. I can see him going anywhere from 12-18.
Justise is absolutely a top 5 pick, and i think Jah goes #2.
I think someone takes a chance on him late lottery, i really do. His physical stature is the only thing that is really a negative (while i understand that's a big negative) he's only 19 and will keep getting smarter. That is scary. I can see him going anywhere from 12-18.
Justise is absolutely a top 5 pick, and i think Jah goes #2.
I think we would all trade a championship for another year of these guys. Really hate to see them go because of what could be. But I can't begrudge anyone who is clearly ready (unlike William Avery). Best of luck at the next level, I will be cheering for you guys.
I think Winslow is gonna be a superstar. James Harden meets Andre Iguodala.
I think Winslow is gonna be a superstar. James Harden meets Andre Iguodala.
Not even kind of he amen player.... but as far as not being NBA strong, there is this guy named Curry, he's having a decent season, pretty clutch, very crafty. I'm sure some teams wished they'd overlooked his physical weakness a few years back. Its just not a huge deal in the NBA... now if he was playing against Riley's Knicks...
Great point, but I'd argue that Curry was already great at something, shooting. So at the very worst, you draft him, put him in a corner and let him shoot.
Tyus isn't great at any one skill, he is just good at all of it. I think that combined with a body that isn't NBA ready and you have a guy who likely shouldn't go unless he is red hot in the eyes of scouts and likely has his stock nearly as high as it likely will go...which he does, so he'll likely go.
I'm not sure Tyus' stock can get any higher. Without Jah, Justise and Quinn around him next season scouts will try and pick apart his game.
His best decision, from a business standpoint, is to take the next step....as much as that sucks for us fans.
His best decision, from a business standpoint, is to take the next step....as much as that sucks for us fans.
How long do ya'll think it will be before they announce if they're declaring for the draft or coming back?
If Justise was just a couple inches taller he'd be a lock for the #1 pick.
It would be amazing if Okafor and Winslow are the #1 and #2 picks
It would be amazing if Okafor and Winslow are the #1 and #2 picks
That's it in a nutshell DJ...if he comes back, whatever his cons are, they will get exposed to the highest level. Let's look for another pg, I saw it coming in Feb.
In terms of draft stock, I agree that it's probably more likely than not that he won't be able to improve his draft stock significantly (though I don't accept the premise that he's peaked). There are plenty of guys lacking ideal measurables / athleticism who ultimately improved their draft stock significantly by coming back to school. Kaminsky from last year to this year, McDermott, Trey Burke, Redick, Shelden, and Chris Paul back in the day, Jimmer Fredette, Steph Curry, etc. etc.
With that said, the major problem with the oft-recited business decision argument is that it only holds true if the guy survives in the NBA -- the odds of which go down if you enter the league before you're ready The unfortunate reality is we pay attention to most of these guys get drafted, but don't do a good job tracking what happens to these guys once they get there. When you're talking about guys like Jah / Winslow, the business decision point is obvious. They are instantaneously going to get multi-year contracts and endorsements totaling tens of millions over a several year period and are almost certainly going to be in the league, worst case, for a decade+. With a kid like Tyus, it's going to be a struggle for him to get any minutes the next couple years and once he is finally physically ready to play, teams may have already moved on to the next big thing.
I wish Tyus the best if he's leaving -- but he really does seem to me to be a Kyle Singler-type -- very good in college early, but limited ceiling who will never become more than an, at best, bench guy in the NBA (at least on a good team). He's obviously entitled to make the decision he considers best -- but I don't view this as a situation where he would be dumb to stay. To the contrary in fact, it really is unclear to me how a kid with his current physical makeup will survive at the next level -- at least until he spends a few years in the weight room / working on his quickness.
This post was edited on 4/9 10:29 AM by aah555
With that said, the major problem with the oft-recited business decision argument is that it only holds true if the guy survives in the NBA -- the odds of which go down if you enter the league before you're ready The unfortunate reality is we pay attention to most of these guys get drafted, but don't do a good job tracking what happens to these guys once they get there. When you're talking about guys like Jah / Winslow, the business decision point is obvious. They are instantaneously going to get multi-year contracts and endorsements totaling tens of millions over a several year period and are almost certainly going to be in the league, worst case, for a decade+. With a kid like Tyus, it's going to be a struggle for him to get any minutes the next couple years and once he is finally physically ready to play, teams may have already moved on to the next big thing.
I wish Tyus the best if he's leaving -- but he really does seem to me to be a Kyle Singler-type -- very good in college early, but limited ceiling who will never become more than an, at best, bench guy in the NBA (at least on a good team). He's obviously entitled to make the decision he considers best -- but I don't view this as a situation where he would be dumb to stay. To the contrary in fact, it really is unclear to me how a kid with his current physical makeup will survive at the next level -- at least until he spends a few years in the weight room / working on his quickness.
This post was edited on 4/9 10:29 AM by aah555
Tyus Jones Scheduling Agent Meetings, Moving Toward Declaring For Draft:
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/237376/Tyus-Jones-Scheduling-Agent-Meetings-Moving-Toward-Declaring-For-Draft
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/237376/Tyus-Jones-Scheduling-Agent-Meetings-Moving-Toward-Declaring-For-Draft
Tell that to Kendall Marshall. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kendall_Marshall. The notion that Tyler Ennis's rookie year has been anything other than disappointment simply suggests a lack of familiarity with the NBA. Unless you're a freakishly talented big guy, NBA teams have a very, very limited amount of patience to pay guys on the job and cut bait really quickly on most mid-tier prospects like Ennis -- who, btw) has already been traded by the team that drafted him.
I fully acknowledge Tyus presents a borderline case where there isn't a necessarily bad decision, but please lets not pretend that anyone who suggests Tyus may face some problems at the NBA-level somehow don't understand professional basketball. Europe is littered with the carcasses of former NBA first round picks who are unceremoniously bounced out of the league within 2-3 years.
This post was edited on 4/10 1:25 PM by aah555
First, where did I say Ennis' rookie year was considered a success? However he is still playing and he is what, 10 months removed from being drafted. I would say he gets a bit more of leash that 10 months, right?
Second, he sure was traded but did you see the other PG's that the Suns have traded this year?
Third, What was Kendall Marshall to do? His draft stock was as high as it was going to get for a PG who can't really shoot and has limited athleticism. He went when he had to. Coming back would have done what for him?
I know the NBA game just fine. I never once said Tyus would not struggle or any draft pick for that matter. It is hard for rookies in the NBA.
I don't think anyone is saying Tyus is 100% making the right decision. And really, when does anyone ever totally make the right decision?
His decision, like most, is based on risks. You know that, I know that...and most importantly, Tyus likely knows it too. But there are more factors that go into a decision like this than "am I truly ready for what's ahead?"
Tyus is simply capitalizing on the opportunity being presented. Could his stock rise next season? It could, but it's not a guarantee. He is not going to have the star-studded cast he had this season. He might score more, have more opportunities, and even become a better basketball player....but that doesn't translate to necessarily being a higher pick.
Right now he's almost assuredly going to be in the 13-25 range of the first round. He's coming off a national championship that saw him garner a regional and final four MOP award(s) and he took over in the final game putting his teammates on his back.
James Michael McAdoo could have been a top 10 pick in 2012 but he chose to return for not one, but two more seasons. His result? He went undrafted. Right now he's a 12-man on the bench in Golden State, and there's a decent enough chance he doesn't make an NBA roster a few years down the road. Essentially, he lost out on millions.
I always ask myself this....is this best decision for him right now? Certainly five years from now revisionist history could tell us Tyus made a mistake. But it's not five years from now.
No, my point is that it's not always (and often not very) smart to declare prematurely simply b/c you have a good draft stock if you're truly not ready to play at the next level -- b/c, unless you're a rare talent or 7'0 ft. project with upside, the odds of you sticking in the league while you physically mature / improve anticipation / work on jumpshot / etc. is not great. In Marshall's case, despite being the #13 pick, he spent 1/2 of his rookie year in the D-league and didn't play much with Phoenix. He was then traded and immediately waived, leaving him without an NBA team for 2 months (i.e., one year out of the draft, nobody was willing to even pick up the former #13 pick). Then, the Lakers (who were horrible and have a former tarheel GM) picked him up for half the season before electing to waive him. The bucks then picked him up and then traded him after he tore his ACL. So, now, 3 years out of UNC, he's been traded 3 times, waived 3 times, and now is rehabbing from a torn ACL without an NBA team or any realistic expectation of playing in the NBA next season.
IMO, it's hard to argue that Marshall's long-term basketball future is in a better place now than it would have been if he had stayed at Carolina for 1-2 more seasons, where he could have worked on all the clear weaknesses with his game --- and that doesn't even get into the fact that he's nowhere close to having a college degree, traded the experience of being a star upperclassmen at Carolina for being in the D-league and spare-part on a collection of lousy NBA teams, etc. etc. Personally, Kendall was one of the few UNC-guys I actually liked -- and it's kind of sad to see him wasting his time these days tweeting high school recruits from home.
You can make the counter-point that Kendall has made a decent amount of money (probably around $2-3M pre-taxes) and can go to Europe. And, that's true. But, nearly all of that could have also been said about him if he had stayed in school for 1 or 2 more years -- regardless of his precise draft stock-- see Trajan Langdon, Daniel Ewing,etc.
This post was edited on 4/10 2:23 PM by aah555
