Caution: Dont overexpect next year.....

[hart2chesson]

The Chronicle has a reputation for being historically tough on Duke hoops. However there are enough valid points made to temper expectations from our boys next year:

http://www.dukechronicle.com/articl...t-expect-duke-to-contend-for-the-championship

 

[CRAZIE4LIFE]

I can somewhat agree with it. I have tempered my expectations but am still looking forward to the season. This team will struggle without a decent three point shooter, much like last year when Grayson and Trent seemed to be off, the team struggled. Someone may step up and be even better than we thought though. Time will tell.

 

[hart2chesson]

I can somewhat agree with it. I have tempered my expectations but am still looking forward to the season. This team will struggle without a decent three point shooter, much like last year when Grayson and Trent seemed to be off, the team struggled. Someone may step up and be even better than we thought though. Time will tell.

Good post...

OFC

 

[Quavarius]

I am! Sights on 6 bitches!!!!

 

[Mac9192]

Will our super freshmen worry more about the team than their draft status? We have at least 3 alphas, and for success to happen, all 3 can't be worried about who gets the attention. There's only one ball to go around.
I'm anxious to see how we look, but K and the staff really have their work cut out for them. We will not really know how good we are until possibly January/February.

 

[Mac9192]

I am! Sights on 6 bitches!!!!

You at the beach with binoculars again Q?

 

[pisgah101]

Agree and disagree. The D I feel will be solid, Zion from the games I've seen live has a respectable 3, and I think Alexneeds to start at the 2(which won't be popular)

 

[GillJET]

I don’t understand how he can say last years team only had one true 3 point threat in Gary. What about Grayson??? I had to stop reading this article after I read that.

 

[Quavarius]

I don’t understand how he can say last years team only had one true 3 point threat in Gary. What about Grayson??? I had to stop reading this article after I read that.

And Bagley and Carter showed they could hit the 3 as well, even though their scoring came from the inside

 

[sheyduke]

R.J. Barret will be next years “ Team leader” with Bolden and Javin. While I’ll take it one game at a time, next seasons team just seems to be coming together prior to hitting campus.

 

[MyDudeG]

With the talent we have, I think that we'll be one of the handful of teams that has a realistic shot at winning the title. That's all we could really hope for.

 

[dachampishere2]

“It's also a stretch to assume that a Duke team starting four freshmen and a relatively inexperienced junior could be a strong man-to-man defensive team.”

This statement is an indictment of Coach K. Calipari can get freshmen to play elite man defense but Coach K can’t. That’s a problem. Coach must tweak some of his defensive principles. We don’t need to play full court man defense. In 2010 we kind of packed it in and that worked. We don’t play enough players to be picking up full court. That’s a foolish strategy. 4 freshman can definitely play some good man defense.

 

[hart2chesson]

I like leadership and Grayson did an admirable job with it this year, even though his shot was off.I look for RJ and Tre to provide leadership next year, but I think at least one upperclassmen needs to emerge as a strong leader.

OFC

 

[skysdad]

I like leadership and Grayson did an admirable job with it this year, even though his shot was off.I look for RJ and Tre to provide leadership next year, but I think at least one upperclassmen needs to emerge as a strong leader.

OFC

Bolden could be that person. I hope he is a captain. OFC

 

[hart2chesson]

Bolden could be that person. I hope he is a captain. OFC

I agree Sky. Javin strikes me also as a kid who could be a leader....

OFC

 

[PatrickYates]

I don’t understand how he can say last years team only had one true 3 point threat in Gary. What about Grayson??? I had to stop reading this article after I read that.

37% last year, and 38% for his career. Solid, but that is barely on the upper end of the mediocre range. We expected him to be a good shooter when he committed, and that sort become something he was known for, only not really. Allen played at a really high level for 2 to 3 months as a soph. He didn't start the season very well, and he didn't end it particularly well, but the middle was bonkers. His junior season was mediocre. He was better as a senior, but compared to other senior leaders at Duke he was, again, mediocre. He was a good player, but by no means great.
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And he was never a great shooter. Like I said, 37% last year and 38% for a career. That isn't exactly sniper range.

 

[Mac9192]

37% last year, and 38% for his career. Solid, but that is barely on the upper end of the mediocre range. We expected him to be a good shooter when he committed, and that sort become something he was known for, only not really. Allen played at a really high level for 2 to 3 months as a soph. He didn't start the season very well, and he didn't end it particularly well, but the middle was bonkers. His junior season was mediocre. He was better as a senior, but compared to other senior leaders at Duke he was, again, mediocre. He was a good player, but by no means great.
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And he was never a great shooter. Like I said, 37% last year and 38% for a career. That isn't exactly sniper range.

Some of his "lower than we hoped for shooting" can probably be attributed to trying to do more than just play. Allen, for whatever reason, didn't seem like he went out there and just played the game. Looked like he was trying to think for too many.
Honestly, very few could do better given all he went through. Anyone disappointed in his overall play doesn't know basketball.

 

[PatrickYates]

I can somewhat agree with it. I have tempered my expectations but am still looking forward to the season. This team will struggle without a decent three point shooter, much like last year when Grayson and Trent seemed to be off, the team struggled. Someone may step up and be even better than we thought though. Time will tell.

Ditto. I have real concerns about rim defense and perimeter shooting and rebounding, in that exact order.
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We are going to be a dangerous team, one that few teams will be eager to see in their bracket (last year, Nova would have been licking their chops). Conversely, we'll be a dangerously flawed team that is very susceptible because of our shortcomings. We'll have a razor thin margin of victory over decent teams.
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If even 2 of our frosh turn into legit 3pt threats, all bets are off.

 

[PatrickYates]

Some of his "lower than we hoped for shooting" can probably be attributed to trying to do more than just play. Allen, for whatever reason, didn't seem like he went out there and just played the game. Looked like he was trying to think for too many.
Honestly, very few could do better given all he went through. Anyone disappointed in his overall play doesn't know basketball.

I maintain that the mystery surgery he had after his soph year was worse than was ever let on. He didn't move this year like a guy who was pain free.
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Regardless, reasons or excuses don't matter. It doesn't matter WHY he shot poorly this past year. He did shoot poorly, and thus it was fair to say that Trent was our only 3pt threat.
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The two bigs, while shooting a decent percentage, took so few 3pt shots, and only then in highly specific circumstances, that they didn't rise to the level of 3pt threats.
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The Chronicle writer was correct. We only had 1 real three point threat last year, and he was a tepid one at that.

 

[lyonhawk]

Are you saying this year's Nova would have been licking their chops to have this year's Duke team or next year's Duke team?

 

[hpnole]

Nova would be a good matchup in MSG at some point.

 

[PatrickYates]

Are you saying this year's Nova would have been licking their chops to have this year's Duke team or next year's Duke team?

This year's Nova team would have been purring in pleasure if Duke had been in their bracket.
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There are teams in any given year that no one wants to be with. No one wanted to be in Nova's bracket this year. In some years, even some number 1's are seen as vulnerable. UVA didn't really scare their top 4 seeds. We weren't scared of MSU or KU, and ditto. We've had years when teams complained that they'd been punished by being in Duke's bracket, even if we were lower seeds.
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Next year, we'll be dangerous, to be sure. But I suspect few, if any, top 4 seeds will view us with great fear.
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Which isn't the same thing as being eager about it. Our zone D, and our inability to hit 3s consistently, would have had Nova absolutely gagging to play us. They'd have viewed getting Duke as their 2 seed as an absolute gift from the selection committee. Next year, I doubt any team is that good going into March, and I doubt we are that flawed.

 

[Dahntay#1]

I have said it before and I will say it again. Everyone should probably temper expectations not only for next year but for the remainder of K's tenure. K has never won a championship without a great upperclassman leader and I don't see us having one of those anytime soon. We may make a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight but I just think that lack of leadership is going to get us every year unfortunately. Furthermore, this is not just a K thing. When was the last time that a team won a title without good leadership from an upperclassman?

 

[lyonhawk]

This year's Nova team would have been purring in pleasure if Duke had been in their bracket.
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There are teams in any given year that no one wants to be with. No one wanted to be in Nova's bracket this year. In some years, even some number 1's are seen as vulnerable. UVA didn't really scare their top 4 seeds. We weren't scared of MSU or KU, and ditto. We've had years when teams complained that they'd been punished by being in Duke's bracket, even if we were lower seeds.
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Next year, we'll be dangerous, to be sure. But I suspect few, if any, top 4 seeds will view us with great fear.
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Which isn't the same thing as being eager about it. Our zone D, and our inability to hit 3s consistently, would have had Nova absolutely gagging to play us. They'd have viewed getting Duke as their 2 seed as an absolute gift from the selection committee. Next year, I doubt any team is that good going into March, and I doubt we are that flawed.

This is just absurdly wrong. If the committee had dropped us to a 2-seed and put is in Nova's bracket, they would have been pissed. I guarantee you they were all pretty happy when Kansas beat us.

 

[Swervin_Irvin_Duke]

I hope we can lock down defensively, we could be a horrible shooting team.

 

[Showenuff]

I'll just be the loner here. I'll just stay excited about next year. It's easy to say we won't win a ship next season, the percentages are definitely in your favor when you do. But just like EVERY year, there's a chance, and that's the fun of it. Nobody's pissing on my parade, I think this team is going to be great. Cam can shoot the 3, Alex DAMN sure can. And I think our athleticism is just extremely to high to say we won't play D. But hey, we'll see, that's why they play the games. If they simply learn to play as a cohesive unit, gel and talk, we're gonna be really good.

 

[bullcity gamer]

I hope after the past 2 seasons, a lot of our fans have learned to not set such high expectations. Our guys had been ranked Pre Season #1 only to fall short of reaching the Final 4 both years. This was with the likes of good upper classmen leadership for the 2016-2017 season Jefferson and Jones with 4 scoring threats in Allen, Kennard, Tatum, and Jackson. Also, having two of the best big men in the country in Bagley and Carter to compliment a Senior Allen and two other highly touted Freshmen in Duval and Trent Jr. Yes, we have 3 of the top 5 recruits and arguably the best incoming PG coming in, but this upcoming team is still unproven and will be until February rolls around.

 

[Quavarius]

R.J. Barret will be next years “ Team leader” with Bolden and Javin. While I’ll take it one game at a time, next seasons team just seems to be coming together prior to hitting campus.

2019 reminds me so much of 2015. These players are close and wanted to play together. R.J.'s leadership is going to wow people! He takes winning VERY seriously!

 

[Quavarius]

“It's also a stretch to assume that a Duke team starting four freshmen and a relatively inexperienced junior could be a strong man-to-man defensive team.”

This statement is an indictment of Coach K. Calipari can get freshmen to play elite man defense but Coach K can’t. That’s a problem. Coach must tweak some of his defensive principles. We don’t need to play full court man defense. In 2010 we kind of packed it in and that worked. We don’t play enough players to be picking up full court. That’s a foolish strategy. 4 freshman can definitely play some good man defense.

Calipari and his talented players also have the benefit of playing in the SEC with average teams and average coaches. If the ACC was as 1/5th weaker than the SEC, we would out-talent opponent and coaches year in and year out. The OAD model looks good in the SEC, not so much in the ACC, though our teams have still been in the Top 5 in the conference since getting all of these OAD players.

Thats not a knock on Cal either. He can't help it that the quality of the teams aren't that good year in, year out or that the level of coaching acumen is down. I've always wanted to know how well Cal would do in the ACC/Big 12 or old Big East where he won't have the best team and isn't the best coach on the sideline 100% of the time.

 

[sheyduke]

I think we have rim protection in Bolden, Zion, Javin and White. Three of those four are grown upperclassmen and one is just well, GROWN (Zion).

Alex and Reddish will be reliable from three but I do get everyone’s point need more then two especially two starting to spread the floor.

Barret is ready to lead you just see it in him and I think the other three fresh take suit and Bolden and Jacin help with white

 

[Quavarius]

 

[jwill133]

Will K be on the sidelines next year? Yep.
Do we have the 3 best freshman in the country next year along with some solid sophomores/juniors and Vrank? Yep.
Do we have a true and pure PG? Yep.
Do we have an upperclass true center? Yep.

My analysis tells me we should expect a national championship.

 

[Quavarius]

Will K be on the sidelines next year? Yep.
Do we have the 3 best freshman in the country next year along with some solid sophomores/juniors and Vrank? Yep.
Do we have a true and pure PG? Yep.
Do we have an upperclass true center? Yep.

My analysis tells me we should expect a national championship.

I knew there was a reason I liked you!

Sights on 6!

 

[dukiejay]

So-so article. I thought the writer was trying too hard to be cute and "crass" at the same time. He made some obvious concerns, but the "shock jock" approach is overdone. He reminded me a bit of Bilas when he gets onto his soapbox.

Some of his "lower than we hoped for shooting" can probably be attributed to trying to do more than just play. Allen, for whatever reason, didn't seem like he went out there and just played the game. Looked like he was trying to think for too many.
Honestly, very few could do better given all he went through. Anyone disappointed in his overall play doesn't know basketball.

Few people love Grayson more than I do, but it's ok to admit the obvious....he struggled his senior year. We can invent all of the excuses we want as to why, but we still come back to that same reality.

Being disappointed in his overall play doesn't mean someone lacks basketball knowledge. I think someone saying "Grayson wasn't good, wasn't a leader or that he didn't make the team better" shows lack of knowledge. Hard-line stances --- no matter what side you're on --- are much clearer in the middle.

Grayson had a tough season. That doesn't mean I love him less....hell, it might be more. I caught myself at times this season almost wanting it more for Grayson than for Duke.

 

[Duke937]

Only worry is will Bolden stay healthy. Completely have faith in him. Loved how well he played at times. But he has to stay healthy or there isn’t much hope. If he is healthy tho, no reason cutting down nets isn’t an expectation. We are DUKE after all.

 

[dukiejay]

My analysis tells me we should expect a national championship.

And there is nothing wrong with this approach.

Now, I don't expect it, but others can, if they wish. I expect many highs and far less lows....but somehow those lows have a way of balancing out the highs when the end result isn't a championship.

 

[PatrickYates]

This is just absurdly wrong. If the committee had dropped us to a 2-seed and put is in Nova's bracket, they would have been pissed. I guarantee you they were all pretty happy when Kansas beat us.

Look, every teams wants horribly overseeded teams in their bracket. But of the 2s, Nova matched up with us as well as anyone. We were susceptible to threes, which suits their style of play. We also were TO prone, which suits their brand of passing lane piracy on D. Sure, we were better down low, but we weren't great at getting our guys the ball down there.
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I bet Nova would have been happier to see Duke than they were to see KU. In retrospect it didn't matter. They were on fire from 3 vs KU, and those shots would just have been more open vs Duke.

 

[SoCal_Dukie3]

I think we have rim protection in Bolden, Zion, Javin and White. Three of those four are grown upperclassmen and one is just well, GROWN (Zion).

Alex and Reddish will be reliable from three but I do get everyone’s point need more then two especially two starting to spread the floor.

Barret is ready to lead you just see it in him and I think the other three fresh take suit and Bolden and Jacin help with white

I like Jack, but he's not a rim protector. One could say the same for Zion, an undersized 4.

My early expectation is 2nd round or Sweet 16. Call me negative, I'm not though - a finish in the tourney is a success at most schools! While there's tremendous talent in wing/forward, there's little leadership experience and not much depth at the post.

 

[GillJET]

37% last year, and 38% for his career. Solid, but that is barely on the upper end of the mediocre range. We expected him to be a good shooter when he committed, and that sort become something he was known for, only not really. Allen played at a really high level for 2 to 3 months as a soph. He didn't start the season very well, and he didn't end it particularly well, but the middle was bonkers. His junior season was mediocre. He was better as a senior, but compared to other senior leaders at Duke he was, again, mediocre. He was a good player, but by no means great.
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And he was never a great shooter. Like I said, 37% last year and 38% for a career. That isn't exactly sniper range.

Grayson Allen was a true 3 point threat his entire 4 years at Duke. Opposing teams would concur with that. He was not somebody that you would leave open from behind the arc.

Did you not watch that game against Michigan State this year?

 

[PatrickYates]

I knew there was a reason I liked you!

Sights on 6!

Despite my seeming focus on our weaknesses and negatives, I like our chances as well as anyone else's. KU is good on paper, and so is UK, but both squads will have their weaknesses. And many of the reasons both teams are "more" talented than Duke relate to duplicated abilities.
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KU has 2-3 really talented SGs. But, unlike our wings, those guys are ONLY sgs, and you can only play 1 at a time (see: Duke 16/17). KU still has to find a way to play 4-5 bigs who aren't that skilled. Nova lost the world. UNC still doesn't have a roster that best suits Roy's preferred style.
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We won't be dominant, but I like our chances come March, both in the ACC and NCAAT.