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World Cup

Here's a look at how the knockout rounds will look if you take the 538 projections... Top half is scary. Belgium is smart to have convenient "injuries."

Top Half:
Uruguay
Portugal

France
Argentina

Brazil
Germany

England
Colombia

Bottom Half:
Spain
Russia

Croatia
Denmark

Mexico
Switzerland

Japan
Belgium
 
dukedevilz said:
Agreed that Germany and Brazil haven't looked dominant. But it's hard to compare their results with Belgium. Germany has played elite teams in Mexico and Sweden - and Brazil has played two pretty solid teams in Switzerland and Serbia. I agree that Belgium is a legitimate contender, but Panama and Tunisia are not quality teams. England has struggled mightily in recent years against quality teams in the WC and at the Euros, but Panama and Tunisia make England look really good.
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Agreed, hence my cowardly hedge about "changing at a moments notice." Because Germany looked lethal for the last 25 mins of the game, when Sweden was basically in bunker mode, and Germany was still peppering the goal. And I'll admit Brazil is dangerous, but I remain wary of the team. I don't think they handle adversity all that well.
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But yes, Tunisa and Panama aren't great. Sweden and Mexico are better than expected.
 
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dbav said:
Russia has finally played a good team and are looking overwhelmed. Also down a man for the rest of the match. It could get ugly.
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Seriously. Saudi Arabia is probably the worst team at the WC, and probably by a wide margin.

Egypt, with a healthy Mo Saleh, is a team that can MAYBE win 1 game in the Knockout round. That team can win a weak group, finish top 2 in a mediocre group, and might finish third in a strong group (with a solid chance of sneaking into the top 2 even in a strong group).

Egypt WITHOUT Saleh is one of the bottom 3-4 teams in the WC. And with him not healthy, he might as well not have been on the pitch.
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So, Russia got the weak sisters of mercy for the first 2 rounds, and got shellacked vs a good, but by no means great, Uruguay.
 
2nd round matchups set so far are: (Group A winner) Uruguay vs Portugal (Group B runner up) and (Group B winner) Spain vs Russia (Group A runner up). I expect Spain to put on a clinic against the host country. Uruguay vs Portugal is going to be a classic, Suarez vs Cristiano Ronaldo
 
Canadian Dukie said:
Great,intense game yesterday,Portugal and Iran...Ronaldo's lucky he did not get a red card for that foul,anyone else probably would have got one
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After watching that play, I think Yellow was the correct call. It would have been a Red, but the other player exaggerated, obviously, and to comic degree, the effect of CR's foul. If not for that, I truly think a Red would have happened.
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Of course, that would mean that CR would be out of the WC in the knockout round, something FIFA is loathe to experience. Which the refs obviously know.
 
PatrickYates said:
After watching that play, I think Yellow was the correct call. It would have been a Red, but the other player exaggerated, obviously, and to comic degree, the effect of CR's foul. If not for that, I truly think a Red would have happened.
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Of course, that would mean that CR would be out of the WC in the knockout round, something FIFA is loathe to experience. Which the refs obviously know.
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I've never known a soccer player to embellish a foul! I thought at first that Mike Tyson had hit him!
 
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Nah, a soccer player wouldn’t go down like he broke a bone after being touched. Never happens.
 
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QC Dukie said:
Nah, a soccer player wouldn’t go down like he broke a bone after being touched. Never happens.
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Granted, but this was bad. Live, it wasn't as noticeable. At full speed, when concentrating on it, it was sort of obvious. In slow-motion, the exaggeration was glaringly obvious.
 
It is funny as hell when all these guys flop around. But in their defense, you do have to make sure the referee sees when you are fouled in soccer.

I guess what I’m saying is that flopping, or at least embellishing some, is just more necessary in soccer than compared to other sports.
 
GillJET said:
It is funny as hell when all these guys flop around. But in their defense, you do have to make sure the referee sees when you are fouled in soccer.

I guess what I’m saying is that flopping, or at least embellishing some, is just more necessary in soccer than compared to other sports.
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The real fouls, ie the ones that truly impact a play or a game, are all immediately noticeable by all and sundry. The flopping happens when a player tries to sell low level contact (which doesn't really impact a play, much less a game) or create the impression of contact where none existed. Futbol is a rough game. Some of the flopping is blatant tactical maneuvering, and it ruins the game. It has gotten so bad that many non-fans are immediately turned off when they try to get into the sport. If you've been indoctrinated into loving the sport from early childhood, it is an unpleasant aspect of the game that one simply glosses over. More rational and critical thinking adults probably can't get over it.
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I mean, we threw rocks at Hanstravel for his excessive flopping and flailing around. He's nothing compared to what happens in high level Futbol.
 
PatrickYates said:
The real fouls, ie the ones that truly impact a play or a game, are all immediately noticeable by all and sundry. The flopping happens when a player tries to sell low level contact (which doesn't really impact a play, much less a game) or create the impression of contact where none existed. Futbol is a rough game. Some of the flopping is blatant tactical maneuvering, and it ruins the game. It has gotten so bad that many non-fans are immediately turned off when they try to get into the sport. If you've been indoctrinated into loving the sport from early childhood, it is an unpleasant aspect of the game that one simply glosses over. More rational and critical thinking adults probably can't get over it.
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I mean, we threw rocks at Hanstravel for his excessive flopping and flailing around. He's nothing compared to what happens in high level Futbol.
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I don’t mean flopping really. I mean more embellishing on certain fouls to make sure they aren’t missed. To me it’s just a necessary thing in soccer more than other sports. It’s part of the nature of the game.
 
Aren’t the refs watching the play? I mean do they have to fall out and roll around on the ground like they’ve lost a limb to get a call?
 
QC Dukie said:
Aren’t the refs watching the play? I mean do they have to fall out and roll around on the ground like they’ve lost a limb to get a call?
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They definitely go overboard with it all the time. But there are also times when you have to make sure it is seen, or the foul might be missed or not called.

And it does hurt like hell to get kicked or get hit with somebody’s spikes.

I’m not the soccer expert, but I know there are penalties or cards given out for simulation (flopping). Somebody else on here who is more knowledgeable about soccer could probably explain this all better than me.
 
Honestly, they embellish just like American athletes do. Basketball in particular has a lot of large men flopping around. You've got the attempts to get personal fouls in the NFL, and so on. Every sport has it, just seems like soccer gets the most guff for it because it's not an "American" sport.

As mentioned above, you can get carded for "simulation". Only really happens when it's obvious. Bear in mind there is 1 ref for the whole field, so it's not always seen.

Also, aside from the embellishment, a lot of these guys are running full speed while trying to keep their balance and control of a ball at their feet. One slight clip to the leg or ankle is gonna send you down. Think of a guard driving full speed through the lane and he steps on someone's foot. Even a slight change can impact balance in a big way.

There have been a lot of very good foul calls. I can say from experience that taking a cleat to the ankle is extremely painful. In fact, the worst sports injuries I've ever seen have been soccer injuries. Think Kevin Ware from years ago, but worse.

I dislike the teams that make it part of their game plan. The Portuguese and Uruguayans in particular tend to hit the ground when a calm breeze sweeps through the stadium. Most of the other fouls you see really are fouls.

For those that don't watch it much, I would liken it to my education in lacrosse. You don't realize how physical it really is until you see this level up close. I would say for those interested, the big European leagues start in August. NBCSN covers the English league and Fox covers the German league. Watch the best teams there and you may appreciate it more. Its like 90 minutes of motion offense and coordination.
 
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The Italians got a lot of flak for some their dives in 2006. I initially thought Materazzi was flopping when I saw him down on the field in the World Cup Final. I didn't see Zidane head-butt the guy until the replays were shown. But they certainly had the reputation as a flopping team. Heck, this youtube video was posted BEFORE the World Cup Final against France.

 
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lol at Germany. That's crazy. Never saw that coming... Guess we won't have the epic Germany/Brazil rematch in the Round of 16. Just please tell me Brazil isn't going to blow up today. I like upsets here and there, but I don't really want to see Croatia playing Sweden in the Semifinals.
 
dukedevilz said:
lol at Germany. That's crazy. Never saw that coming... Guess we won't have the epic Germany/Brazil rematch in the Round of 16. Just please tell me Brazil isn't going to blow up today. I like upsets here and there, but I don't really want to see Croatia playing Sweden in the Semifinals.
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Wow. Germany can't win ANYTHING on Russian soil.
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On the plus side, this likely means that tomorrow's Belgium v England game becomes important again. When Germany looked like the 2 out of their group, there was some idea that B and E might prefer to be the 2 in their group. Now, getting the 1 seed vs on the bracket that includes a Mexico team that hasn't been that dangerous looking since the Germany win (and Germany has looked bad all tourney, so that early win probably doesn't mean what we thought it meant then) and a Brazil team's whose D is shaky doesn't seem that bad.
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Now both Bel and Eng have incentive to win tomorrow, in what could be the best game of the group stage outside of Portugal v Spain, which was a GOAT level match.
 
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Unreal,the last time Germany lost in the first round was 1938...I may be crazy but I really like England,they are really young and flying under the radar after years of disappointment at the international level,they have the best young striker in the game,and are playing with great enthusiasm.they may be a few years yet away from greatness but you never know
 
bullcity gamer said:
Thank You Korea Republic!!!! - Mexico National Soccer Team
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That was bonkers. It almost never happens that all 4 teams in the group could feasibly advance given certain circumstances on the 3rd game. Made for a fun watch.
 
dbav said:
Honestly, they embellish just like American athletes do. Basketball in particular has a lot of large men flopping around. You've got the attempts to get personal fouls in the NFL, and so on. Every sport has it, just seems like soccer gets the most guff for it because it's not an "American" sport.
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I'm not saying your point is wrong, but I think soccer gets grief in part because it's not an "American sport" and in part due to the degree of acting. I mean, seriously, that one clip from this world cup - I've NEVER seen a guy roll around on a football field like that, even when he was truly hurt. And aside from the Zeller spider web incident, you don't see it in basketball either.
 
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dbav said:
That was bonkers. It almost never happens that all 4 teams in the group could feasibly advance given certain circumstances on the 3rd game. Made for a fun watch.
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Korea couldn't advance no matter what happened, but I take your point. Truly bonkers. At half time I was griping to my fellow WC fan coworker that if the 0-0 draws held up, I'd be unable to defend Soccer/Futbol/WC.
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And then the last 30 minutes of regulation happened. Holy ish.
 
Canadian Dukie said:
Unreal,the last time Germany lost in the first round was 1938...I may be crazy but I really like England,they are really young and flying under the radar after years of disappointment at the international level,they have the best young striker in the game,and are playing with great enthusiasm.they may be a few years yet away from greatness but you never know
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I'd love for that to happen, but I feel that the Spanish, Brazillian, French, and Belgium teams are equally as talented, more experienced, and more mature than the young England side. I think the more rational Eng fans are looking toward Qatar in 2022. This was the WC where their young players got their feet wet while hopefully making some noise in the knockout stages. An "elite 8" or "final 4" was the hope. That would propel this team in 2022, when the Eng are at the peak of their abilities, while some other powers are declining.
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PatrickYates said:
I'd love for that to happen, but I feel that the Spanish, Brazillian, French, and Belgium teams are equally as talented, more experienced, and more mature than the young England side. I think the more rational Eng fans are looking toward Qatar in 2022. This was the WC where their young players got their feet wet while hopefully making some noise in the knockout stages. An "elite 8" or "final 4" was the hope. That would propel this team in 2022, when the Eng are at the peak of their abilities, while some other powers are declining.
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I agree that they are still several years away from being serious contenders,but I think they have a couple more wins in them yet this year
 
dukephysics said:
I'm not saying your point is wrong, but I think soccer gets grief in part because it's not an "American sport" and in part due to the degree of acting. I mean, seriously, that one clip from this world cup - I've NEVER seen a guy roll around on a football field like that, even when he was truly hurt. And aside from the Zeller spider web incident, you don't see it in basketball either.
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Agree to disagree. When scuffles break out, I've seen plenty of basketball and football players writhe around after someone poked them for the purpose of drawing a penalty or flagrant foul. Plus, every attempt to take a charge in basketball has some sort of acting involved. I have no doubt a 7', 270 lb. center can hold his ground in that situation.

I agree that I hate when it is done and especially when it gets overdone, but, in my opinion, it is done in every sport.
 
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PatrickYates said:
Korea couldn't advance no matter what happened, but I take your point. Truly bonkers. At half time I was griping to my fellow WC fan coworker that if the 0-0 draws held up, I'd be unable to defend Soccer/Futbol/WC.
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And then the last 30 minutes of regulation happened. Holy ish.
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At least that 0-0 draw was entertaining. Yesterday's was like unspoken collusion, haha.
 
Canadian Dukie said:
I agree that they are still several years away from being serious contenders,but I think they have a couple more wins in them yet this year
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100 percent agree wrt a few more wins. Tomorrow's game V Belgium was the match I most looked forward too in the group stages.

And, this group of lions might be too dumb to succumb to pressure or media attention.
 
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I think England will make the quarterfinals either way. I certainly don't see them losing to Japan or Senegal... Colombia could make it interesting, but I'd still favor England.

Odds on advancing to the Semifinals if they face these teams in the Quarterfinals (according to 538):

Mexico: 71%
Sweden: 62%
Switzerland: 60%
Brazil: 37%

Brazil will most likely play Mexico in the Round of 16, and Sweden should get Switzerland. Getting 2nd place in Group G is still the safe bet. But things can change.
 
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England/Belgium and Columbia/Senegal could be really good games tomorrow.
 
As a Mexico fan, I am not confident they get by Brazil in the 2nd round. Mexico seems to be going on a downhill spiral while Brazil seems to be finding their groove.
 
I am in no way a soccer traditionalist, but doesn’t Brazil completely own Mexico in terms of international play??

Believe I read where Brazil has won/tied against Mexico 17 of the last 18 matches.

I’m sticking with my pick of the Brazilians to win it all. Mainly because I enjoy their style of play, seem to play very uptempo with a lot of flare. Oh, and they got a bunch of guys with cool hair and tattoo’s, always a plus.
 
bullcity gamer said:
https://www.11v11.com/teams/brazil/tab/opposingTeams/opposition/Mexico/ Here you go Jwill. The link shows Brazil’s record vs Mexico in Men’s Soccer. The two teams have not faced since 2015. You are correct in Brazil owning Mexico. I expect it to be a 1-0 or 2-1 victory by Brazil in extra time, if the game goes to a PK shootout, I give Mexico the edge because of Ochoa
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If I'm reading that correctly, it looks like Mexico has won or drawn in 10 of the last 15 matches.
 
The setting always matters. If it isn't a true knockout tournament, sometimes the upper team doesn't try as hard. With the USA being in Concaf, we rarely face the true powers in real competitions. Ditto Mexico. Mexico and the US have better winning percentages vs some of the traditional powers than do other traditional powers. Usually, when Euro or SA teams play each other, they do so as part of qualifying for tournaments, or in actual tournaments, when the outcome matters. When Mex or the USA plays one of these traditional powers, it is often a "friendly" match wherein the outcome doesn't really matter.
 
Fair enough. If you remove the international friendlies from those 15 recent matches, you're left with 9 matches. Mexico has won or drawn in 7 of those 9.
 
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