Rotation and minutes

[christophero]

I'm going to start this. What else is there to talk about other than our stellar recruiting? These are my predictions. Sorry if my math is off.
1. PG Roach's to lose. I predict he has a solid year. 11ppg. Blakes can provide a few minutes of back up, as can Moore. 30mpg. Blakes 3 or 4 minutes. Blakes could earn more minutes if he impresses. Moore a few minutes at PG.
2. SG Moore. Moore should start. Keels will probably provide scoring off the bench. I do wonder about Keel's conditioning due to his size. Moore 26 mpg, Keels 14 mpg.
3. SF: AJ. AJ has impressed me lately. He looked rusty at first but the last scrimmage he looked great. 32mpg. Baker 8 minutes. Baker could play more, but only if he is hitting. Baker and Keels are my X-factors; if they start raining 3s our ceiling gets much higher. Keels has the size to play the 3 as well, as does Moore.
4. PF: This will be the Banchero show. AJ could help out here. Bates Jones has been impressive in the scrimmages, him seeing a few minutes a game is not out of the question. He looks ready to contribute if needed, and I like seniors.
5. C: Williams. Mark may be most effective at 28 minutes a game or so. Theo can give us 10-15 if healthy, which he seems to be. Theo at full strength gives us depth when the North Carolinas and Kentuckys come calling. If not, Banchero can slide to the 5, but that is a recipe for foul trouble. Worthington can provide a few minutes if needed, if we are in (deep)foul trouble.
Summation: this is a sweet 16 team. We can go further, but the frontcourt depth, PG play and outside shooting need to be consistent. If all the pieces fall into place we can be special.
What are your thoughts?

 

[Liftee]

I agree with a alot of what you say. I think Moore will get as many minutes as he can handle. If he can play some point he'll get minutes there, otherwise at the 3. And then we have the inevitable small lineup that Coach K loves. That might be Roach, Keels, Moore, AJ and Banchero.

 

[HuffyJB]

Three point shooting to me remains far and away the main concern. It should be better this year, but it still stands out to me as the primary question mark.

 

[christophero]

Agreed. The frontcourt is our strength. Teams will pack it in like the Zion season if we are cold from outside. If Keels can be what Scheyer says that is big. (he said he was a "big time weapon.")

 

[KDSTONE]

Three point shooting to me remains far and away the main concern. It should be better this year, but it still stands out to me as the primary question mark.

We all know Duke like most teams has become too dependent on the 3 ball. We’ve had bad luck in that area with Cam Baker AOC Steward. No one can get it going consistently. Jack White the list is a long one. Maybe this year things will turn around from deep

 

[AlanInNJ]

Nice analysis Chris. I would be happy if that's the way things played out. I still wish we would see K go a little deeper into the bench, but it's pretty clear that's not his style.

I wonder who will be our defensive stopper. I really think we need a lockdown defender who can bail us out when, as it inevitably happens, some 3 star that nobody ever heard of goes off on us. Goldwire filled that role fairly well the last two years. Who can fill it this year?

 

[jimlsumner]

I agree with a alot of what you say. I think Moore will get as many minutes as he can handle. If he can play some point he'll get minutes there, otherwise at the 3. And then we have the inevitable small lineup that Coach K loves. That might be Roach, Keels, Moore, AJ and Banchero.

You think Keels will play ahead of Mark Williams?

 

[christophero]

I think he just means if we go to smallball for short stretches.

 

[bmbritt]

Nice analysis Chris. I would be happy if that's the way things played out. I still wish we would see K go a little deeper into the bench, but it's pretty clear that's not his style.

I wonder who will be our defensive stopper. I really think we need a lockdown defender who can bail us out when, as it inevitably happens, some 3 star that nobody ever heard of goes off on us. Goldwire filled that role fairly well the last two years. Who can fill it this year?

Could see Theo playing a version of the Amille Jefferson role this season. Be a defensive stopper; make hustle plays; help on the boards and provide 8-10 points in some games that were unexpected. I’m also hoping the guys that have been there a while or who are incoming Freshman will let Theo John help with Senior leadership.

 

[christophero]

AJ could be our stopper. I heard he gave Banchero fits in a recent scrimmage.

 

[df64]

I think there are several differences between this year's team and the Zion team as far as teams being able to pack it in on us. 1st, soph Roach should be a way better shooter from 3 than a freshmen Tre. 2nd, a bad/inconsistent year from Keels = what Cam gave us from 3. Odds are, one of Moore/Keels or, the combination of, is able to surpasses what Cam gave us from 3. 3rd, Blakes, if pressed into play or by earning time, is a way better deep shooter than Goldwire. Way more confident, too. 4, both AJ and Paolo are better 3 pt shooters than Zion and RJ. 5, Paolo and Mark give us a better high low combination than RJ and Zion due to their ridiculous length and Paolo's mid range shooting ability. Really hard to double one, certainly can't double both. 6, Mark's length really forces teams to extend their D all the way down to the baseline to prevent lobs. And, they won't be able to help off of him or Theo like they did with Javin and ?? Totally blanking on our other big's name. Last, Joey just has to have a better year shooting the ball as a senior than his almost redshirt freshman year. He has to. If he doesn't, we'll than just call me stupid and kick me in the nuts.
Sure hope I am right, especially on Joey.

 

[geddoughton23]

No concern about minutes. Only nine recruited scholarship players? Plenty of minutes available

 

[Liftee]

A lot of the Zion team's shooting woes were mental in my opinion...teams would pack in the defense and we would freeze. Kind of like why Boeheim gets away with leaving the 12 foot middle shot open, guys freeze and think too much.

That can happen any time but this time our best player is going to be a guy who can step out and hit the shot as well. Doesn't have to be a 3. Nobody was afraid of Zion or RJ doing that.

 

[JimboSlice00]

I'm going to start this. What else is there to talk about other than our stellar recruiting? These are my predictions. Sorry if my math is off.
1. PG Roach's to lose. I predict he has a solid year. 11ppg. Blakes can provide a few minutes of back up, as can Moore. 30mpg. Blakes 3 or 4 minutes. Blakes could earn more minutes if he impresses. Moore a few minutes at PG.
2. SG Moore. Moore should start. Keels will probably provide scoring off the bench. I do wonder about Keel's conditioning due to his size. Moore 26 mpg, Keels 14 mpg.
3. SF: AJ. AJ has impressed me lately. He looked rusty at first but the last scrimmage he looked great. 32mpg. Baker 8 minutes. Baker could play more, but only if he is hitting. Baker and Keels are my X-factors; if they start raining 3s our ceiling gets much higher. Keels has the size to play the 3 as well, as does Moore.
4. PF: This will be the Banchero show. AJ could help out here. Bates Jones has been impressive in the scrimmages, him seeing a few minutes a game is not out of the question. He looks ready to contribute if needed, and I like seniors.
5. C: Williams. Mark may be most effective at 28 minutes a game or so. Theo can give us 10-15 if healthy, which he seems to be. Theo at full strength gives us depth when the North Carolinas and Kentuckys come calling. If not, Banchero can slide to the 5, but that is a recipe for foul trouble. Worthington can provide a few minutes if needed, if we are in (deep)foul trouble.
Summation: this is a sweet 16 team. We can go further, but the frontcourt depth, PG play and outside shooting need to be consistent. If all the pieces fall into place we can be special.
What are your thoughts?

Agreed with this and nice breakdown. I think Moore starts as well, but Keels I think could end up as the starting 2 by February. I'm beyond excited about Paolo and Mark on that front line. I've said this before and I'll say it all year- AJ is going to be a flat out star. Think of Justice, but more fluid. I'm really high on AJ.

 

[bmbritt]

I think there are several differences between this year's team and the Zion team as far as teams being able to pack it in on us. 1st, soph Roach should be a way better shooter from 3 than a freshmen Tre. 2nd, a bad/inconsistent year from Keels = what Cam gave us from 3. Odds are, one of Moore/Keels or, the combination of, is able to surpasses what Cam gave us from 3. 3rd, Blakes, if pressed into play or by earning time, is a way better deep shooter than Goldwire. Way more confident, too. 4, both AJ and Paolo are better 3 pt shooters than Zion and RJ. 5, Paolo and Mark give us a better high low combination than RJ and Zion due to their ridiculous length and Paolo's mid range shooting ability. Really hard to double one, certainly can't double both. 6, Mark's length really forces teams to extend their D all the way down to the baseline to prevent lobs. And, they won't be able to help off of him or Theo like they did with Javin and ?? Totally blanking on our other big's name. Last, Joey just has to have a better year shooting the ball as a senior than his almost redshirt freshman year. He has to. If he doesn't, we'll than just call me stupid and kick me in the nuts.
Sure hope I am right, especially on Joey.

That’s a whole lot of assumptions. The assumption going into the Zion/RJ/Cam year was that Cam was the best long distance scorer to step onto the Duke campus in years. That was incorrect. I’m going to wait and see if Banchero, Griffin, Keels, and Roach are actually a better perimeter shooting team than the one with RJ, Tre, Cam, and Zion.

 

[sheyduke]

This team will go as far as their skill set allows. ATTACK the basket should be their first goal. Stop depending on the three. If teams slack off and guard the paint instead of the perimeter on this team they are in trouble. Toward your he end of the season Roach, Moore and Baker proved they can hit it when open . Our lack of foul shots is what killed me . You can not guard five guys attacking and Paolo and Williams will demand double teams . That allows for open threes. The strategy should be attack make the defense converge and kick out which Williams and Paolo our mor then capable passers out.

 

[christophero]

This team needs to prove it can hit outside shots. I keep hearing that Keels has a great shot, but in scrimmages he has missed a lot of open looks. Haven't seen much of AJ from outside. Other than Paulo, Roach and Baker were our best shooters in the 4 or 5 scrimmages/practices I have seen, and those two were average last year. Ditto Moore. So after last year, I'm not going to assume anything. That said, there is hope. And I agree with Shey that we need to attack. Fortunately AJ, Keels and Banchero are excellent at that.

 

[df64]

Certainly agree that this team needs to prove they can do a few things, especially hitting 3.

Britt, I agree with you that anything can go wrong, but I would argue that my points were more probability based than just assumptions. And, a big part of that is how poorly Zions team did shoot from 3. That is known. That team was suspected to be weak from 3. We hoped that Cam would be better than he showed and get us by. We also hoped that Tre would be a little better than advertised. Unfortunately, we struck out on both and nobody else (Joey, O'Connell, Jack) stepped up with a surprise kind of year. If Tre shot the ball as well his freshman year as he did his sophomore year, we cut down the nets.
In my opinion, what we have alteady seen from this year's group of players makes it probable that this team not only shoots the 3 better, but will be less susceptible to teams packing in the D on us. In the end, we will see.

 

[DukeJim99]

I continue my hope that Joey Baker finally turns into a guy that we can get 15-20 min a game and who can average 8 or 9 points for us while shooting around 40pct from 3. He may not be a gifted defender but he gives it his all. He just needs to knockdown shots early so he doesn't play scared and so K doesn't yank him after 3 min. If we get that out of Joey, if Wendell shows a little continued improvement in decision making, if Mark W plays like he did the last third of last season, and if the Freshman play as advertised I think this is definitely a top 10 team who would be in the running to make it to the final four. I know that's a lot of ifs, but... Fingers crossed.

 

[christophero]

Ah yes the annual "is this the year Joey breaks through?" post. I hope he does too.

 

[sheyduke]

Ah yes the annual "is this the year Joey breaks through?" post. I hope he does too.

This is Bakers year.

 

[df64]

I certainly will be pulling for Joey.

 

[timo0402]

I’ll be pulling for him too, anything he provides is gravy. If he hits shots he plays if he doesn’t, he will be a cheerleader. Pretty cut and dry.

 

[skysdad]

I’ll be pulling for him too, anything he provides is gravy. If he hits shots he plays if he doesn’t, he will be a cheerleader. Pretty cut and dry.

The thing about that is he knows it. He knows his role and has to be a great teamate. He could have transferred like some of this board predicted. I hope he is a team captain and the board is respectful to him this being his senior year. OFC

 

[christophero]

He is a weapon. He would probably win most college 3 point shooting contests. I would tell him Im taking him out if he didn't shoot. DBR is buzzing with rumors of a 7 foot walk on freshman from Europe. Has anyone heard? Maybe a recruit for next year.

 

[df64]

Stanley Borden. Article on Ball Durham.

 

[Blueheart32]

I'm going to start this. What else is there to talk about other than our stellar recruiting? These are my predictions. Sorry if my math is off.
1. PG Roach's to lose. I predict he has a solid year. 11ppg. Blakes can provide a few minutes of back up, as can Moore. 30mpg. Blakes 3 or 4 minutes. Blakes could earn more minutes if he impresses. Moore a few minutes at PG.
2. SG Moore. Moore should start. Keels will probably provide scoring off the bench. I do wonder about Keel's conditioning due to his size. Moore 26 mpg, Keels 14 mpg.
3. SF: AJ. AJ has impressed me lately. He looked rusty at first but the last scrimmage he looked great. 32mpg. Baker 8 minutes. Baker could play more, but only if he is hitting. Baker and Keels are my X-factors; if they start raining 3s our ceiling gets much higher. Keels has the size to play the 3 as well, as does Moore.
4. PF: This will be the Banchero show. AJ could help out here. Bates Jones has been impressive in the scrimmages, him seeing a few minutes a game is not out of the question. He looks ready to contribute if needed, and I like seniors.
5. C: Williams. Mark may be most effective at 28 minutes a game or so. Theo can give us 10-15 if healthy, which he seems to be. Theo at full strength gives us depth when the North Carolinas and Kentuckys come calling. If not, Banchero can slide to the 5, but that is a recipe for foul trouble. Worthington can provide a few minutes if needed, if we are in (deep)foul trouble.
Summation: this is a sweet 16 team. We can go further, but the frontcourt depth, PG play and outside shooting need to be consistent. If all the pieces fall into place we can be special.
What are your thoughts?

I agree with most of the breakdown, but I would be disappointed if this is only a sweet sixteen team. I think we should be one of the favorites for the final four. We have a big that can be dominant, Paolo should be one of the best players in college in my opinion, even though he will be a freshman. Moore has been looking very good in practice from what I hear. Roach is more than just serviceable at the point, and we should have good outside shooting with Keels, and AJ. I feel like AJ's talent and skill are being overlooked by a lot of people. Baker, Theo, Blakes, and Bates can all contribute some. Bottom line for me, we have 5-6 very solid scorers and we should be pretty solid on D. This should be a damn solid team. I believe these guys will be very hungry to leave a statement for K's last ride. We will have a good idea early after playing Ky, Gonzaga and Ohio State. Kind of wish we played Texas also. They have a very interesting roster. They should be very good.

 

[christophero]

I think we can be more as well. We do have a lot of ifs, and most of our ifs did not work out last year, except Hurt and Williams and Steward. If Moore becomes a stud that would be huge. He certainly has the talent. But like you said; we will see. I have been encouraged seeing Theo practicing, him being healthy is important for our team, esp against the bigger, better deeper teams.

 

[christophero]

The 7 foot walk on is a great idea. Nothing to lose. Let him practice. He seems skilled but needs to add strength. He could be a contributor in a few years. He has a face the basket type of game.

 

[sheyduke]

The 7 foot walk on is a great idea. Nothing to lose. Let him practice. He seems skilled but needs to add strength. He could be a contributor in a few years. He has a face the basket type of game.

He’s a walk on to help next season one would think. I just posted a link of Moore putting him on a poster.

 

[christophero]

I saw that lol. Do that to Chet Holmgren and I'll be impressed. Seriously that was a Cassius Stanley dunk.

 

[sheyduke]

I saw that lol. Do that to Chet Holmgren and I'll be impressed. Seriously that was a Cassius Stanley dunk.

It looked like Williams was saying ,” hold your ground stick your arms up this ain’t FIBA!” Moore said,” Welcome to my house !”
Seriously I think he will be really needed for next season to push Flip and Lively . He also has pro experience. Someone just please get him some southern fried food while I’m Durham. He’s rail thin.

 

[christophero]

He reminds me of someone. Skinny but with skill. Maybe Joey Beard, but he was a high school all american so that prob. isn't fair. But I think he can help us in a few years. These Euro guys are wildcards so you never know. It sounds like something Gonzaga would do. I like it.

 

[christophero]

Hey I just saw 2 college basketball previews at the supermarket. Lindy's and Avalon I think. One had Duke at 9, the other as "Elite Eight." Gonzaga was one in both. UCLA was 2. Theo John was mentioned as a guy who could be a difference maker up front, and Bates Jones was mentioned as a guy who could have a bench role if needed. If we make a deep run, adding those 2 5th year seniors could go a long way towards getting us over the hump. Along with Baker and esp. Moore we have a nice core of upperclassmen with the 2 sophs. And we know the freshman are good. Gonzaga should be a great early test for us, although they should be starting 2 freshmen as well. Looking at the rosters I would put UCLA number one. They are flat out loaded. They have everyone back, add a top 10 wing and a top 50 guard, plus a good senior transfer center.

 

[Liftee]

John has to stay healthy. I have my doubts. I was impressed with him at Marquette, a real tough guy. didn't understand why he didn't play more. Now I realize it was because of his knees.

 

[sheyduke]

John has to stay healthy. I have my doubts. I was impressed with him at Marquette, a real tough guy. didn't understand why he didn't play more. Now I realize it was because of his knees.

I think that’s why Bates is being mentioned . He can help keep Johns healthy in blow outs. So many line ups I think Johns time will be managed to help his knees

 

[christophero]

If Theo gets hurt, Bates Jones becomes our key frontcourt reserve. I am more high on him than some, and think he will play. But we probably need a healthy Theo to make the final four.

 

[Liftee]

I think Banchero is backup 5 if John can't play. K will have Banchero play a stretch 5 and protect him on defense so Paolo doesn't get beat up.

K likes to play the best 5 available.

 

[christophero]

I think Banchero is backup 5 if John can't play. K will have Banchero play a stretch 5 and protect him on defense so Paolo doesn't get beat up.

K likes to play the best 5 available.

I agree that may happen, but I don't want to see Banchero get worn down by playing the 5. I know he's a freshman and he's big, but that's asking a lot.

 

[timo0402]

I agree that may happen, but I don't want to see Banchero get worn down by playing the 5. I know he's a freshman and he's big, but that's asking a lot.

I think it’ll be situational, end of games probably.