Rated Too Low?

[youngman42]

I think Duke is rated too low. Hopefully the committee won’t see it that way. 9?

While there have been stretches in games we haven’t played well and there is a big weakness at PG, look at their record and losses.

22-4. Their 4 losses all could have been victories have been to good teams by a combined Total of 9 points. BY 5 at Ohio St. The other 3 losses were all basically at the buzzer. BY 2 to Miami. 1 each to FSU and UVA.

Could have easily won all four. Should have beaten OSU (up 13 at half and up 7 with 4:29 to go only to not score another point).

And then Wins early against both Kentucky (ranked 4th) and the Zags (ranked 1st).

Still a ways to go but if they can somehow win the rest of the regular season and the ACC tourney, they should certainly be a 1 seed, imo.

Even losing a game and winning the ACC tourney could bring a 1 seed. But that’s more of a long shot.

 

[christophero]

I think a 2 seed is about right, considering how down the ACC is this year. If we win out and win the ACC tournament we will probably get a one seed, as others ahead of us are bound to lose. Maybe one more loss and winning the ACC tournament as well. But every time this team gets praised it seems we stumble. The next 2 weeks we can change this.

 

[The_Only_Blue]

With both Baylor and Providence losing I'm thinking we should be #7 come tomorrow. Let's just hope we can sustain it while others beat each other up. Things would have to go perfect for us to get a 1 seed but I'd rather for us to stay closer to home in the East or South region.

 

[sheyduke]

Duke is a top ten team and are right where they need to be. With no more ranked opponents to play and are last three games against possible tourney teams there’s no way this team can crack the top five. I’m fine with them being top ten.

 

[df64]

Our last poseesion losses might not have been to very good teams, but pretty sure we do have the best record against Quad 1 opponents of the teams in the top 10 at 5-1.

 

[sheyduke]

Our last poseesion losses might not have been to very good teams, but pretty sure we do have the best record against Quad 1 opponents of the teams in the top 10 at 5-1.

Who’s the five quad one wins outside of Gonzaga and Kentucky? Not being silly or anything just would like to know.

 

[KDSTONE]

Who’s the five quad one wins outside of Gonzaga and Kentucky? Not being silly or anything just would like to know.

Top 30 teams at home and top 75 teams on the road so I’m guessing that includes road wins at Wake and ND. Not sure what the fifth one would be UNC maybe

 

[jeffrey236]

I think a 2 seed is about right, considering how down the ACC is this year.

I know the year started off poorly for the ACC, and it quickly became accepted that the ACC was down this year. That might be true, but since everyone basically plays only conference games from mid/late December, it’s hard for a league to pull itself up when the teams are only feasting on each other, all deemed to be relatively weak teams. Any improvement by a team during the season gets little credit, discounted by the perception that the teams they’re beating are weak. For the ACC, this perception seems reinforced by the indisputably down years some of the traditional ACC powers are having, Carolina, Syracuse, Louisville, UVA and FSU in particular. I’ll be very curious to see how the ACC teams in the tourney do this year, whether it’s 3, 4 or 5 teams, and whether the “down year” label is truly justified. I’m going to be rooting for all of the ACC teams in the tourney (well, maybe except for one 😉) and hope that the ACC can regain its elite status. I’m not trying to hijack the thread, but it seems relevant to the issue raised by the original post by Youngman.

 

[AlanInNJ]

I think we should be in the 6-8 range and get a 2 seed for the tourney unless we really stumble over the next couple weeks. That seems about right to me. Agree that we lost 3 conference games by a total of 4 points, but an L is an L. Also, it gives me some satisfaction and hopefully give the team some confidences knowing be beat two of the teams ahead of us in the rankings. It's kinda like the Zion/Barret year when we missed the final four, but we were 4-1 against the teams IN the final four.

 

[johnl1219]

Top 30 teams at home and top 75 teams on the road so I’m guessing that includes road wins at Wake and ND. Not sure what the fifth one would be UNC maybe

I think our quad 1 wins are Kentucky, Gonzaga, ND and Wake twice. The quad 1 loss I'm assuming is against Ohio St.

 

[df64]

I do agree that the ACC was weak early. That said, we almost split with the big 10, whose early play makes them losing to each other almost irrelevant. And, if we didn't get hosed by the refs at OSU, the ACC would have split the ACC /Big 10 Challenge. Yet all of our losses in conference are considered bad losses.

 

[Mac9192]

Think a 2 seed is about right for us. Seems the committee & Lunardi do a good job with their projections. This Duke team, as many have already said, can beat anyone, and can almost lose to anyone. It's almost March, and we are saying the same things about this team now, as we said in December. Lapses, low IQ play, and stopping penetration. Through all that, we are 23-4, and none of us should be surprised if we made it to the Final 4.

I really hope we don't wind up in the West Region.

 

[christophero]

The ACC was terrible until we started losing to/barely beating ACC teams. I'm guessing we will be the only team in the second weekend.

 

[sheyduke]

Top 30 teams at home and top 75 teams on the road so I’m guessing that includes road wins at Wake and ND. Not sure what the fifth one would be UNC maybe

Thank you . I really wasn’t sure. I figured Ohio st would be the one loss

 

[The_Only_Blue]

As expected we come in at #7 in the AP this week behind Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Purdue, Kansas, Kentucky.

 

[christophero]

If we win at Virginia we deserve our ranking. If we lose again to them, and don't learn from the first game, I will wonder how far this team can go.

 

[sheyduke]

Duke is for sure a top ten team don’t think that’s an argument but it’s time to clean up some of the reoccurring mistakes .

 

[bleediteveryday30]

Dropped to a #3 seed in Lunardi's bracketology.

 

[johnl1219]

Dropped to a #3 seed in Lunardi's bracketology.

Very interesting. I just looked and Lunardi has us as a #3 in the East, so the first two rounds are in Greenville (I assume SC). He has Purdue as the #2 seed and Auburn as the #1 seed.

I don't hate that, but more troubling is Duke's play of late. But, if we can get focused, Duke can make an Elite 8 even as a #3 seed. We'll see what happens the next few weeks, if Duke wins out, they could easily be the #2 seed.

 

[christophero]

As long as we don't drop to a 4. Then we could get a One seed in the sweet 16. We shouldn't, unless we get upset in the first round of the ACC tournament. Not much difference between a 2 and a 3 this year.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

I think we can still get a #2 if we win out and don't lose early in the ACC tournament.

 

[sheyduke]

A loss tomorrow and I think it’s a three seed. There are really no chances left to improve Dukes resume except not to loose.

 

[bleediteveryday30]

A loss tomorrow and I think it’s a three seed. There are really no chances left to improve Dukes resume except not to loose.

Yeah, I see no way this team gets a #1 seed. Even if they win out now the best we could see is the top #2 seed, IMHO of course.

 

[christophero]

I think if we win out we could grab a one. But that seems unlikely
I am fine with a solid finish and a 2.

 

[The_Only_Blue]

Meh...I could care less other than we have to win the rest of our games along with the ACC tourney. The rest will take care of itself. Just rather for us to stay closer to home in the East or South region.

 

[youngman42]

Seedings do matter. It gives a better opportunity and may avoid upset-matchups early.

But naysayers argued there was no chance at a 1 seed and only a maybe at a 2. As it is, unless we fall apart, we have a legit shot at a 1 seed and as long as we win the ACC we should be guaranteed a 2 at this point.

 

[christophero]

A one seed seems more and more possible. We just rolled Pitt and Syracuse on the road by almost 60 points. If we beat UNC by double digits and roll through the ACC tournament, it will be hard to deny us. Plus everyone else is losing. Gonzaga now may have to win their tournament to get a one. If Arizona loses they may drop to a 2. Darn they are beating USC by 20.

 

[Liftee]

I still feel a 2 seed in the East is fine with me. One more loss, say in the ACC finals, will not upset me and if anything will further focus the team. There are still too many teams who have the potential for top 10 wins in the next 10 days to put us on the 1 line.

 

[christophero]

True it is about match ups. We could be a one and get a UCLA as our 4.

 

[duke4life831]

Ya the ACC is having a down year, but dont see how this team isnt a 1 seed especially if we win the ACC tournament. We beat Gonzaga and Kentucky and that was essentially without AJ. We have lost by a combined 9 points so far this season. We have 3 one possession losses and one loss by 5 points. We have 1 more loss than Gonzaga, but our losses were much more competitive and we have the better wins with Gonzaga and UK. Yet it seems like everyone still just pencils Gonzaga down as the #1 overall seed.

 

[DukeKindaGuy]

Ya the ACC is having a down year, but dont see how this team isnt a 1 seed especially if we win the ACC tournament. We beat Gonzaga and Kentucky and that was essentially without AJ. We have lost by a combined 9 points so far this season. We have 3 one possession losses and one loss by 5 points. We have 1 more loss than Gonzaga, but our losses were much more competitive and we have the better wins with Gonzaga and UK. Yet it seems like everyone still just pencils Gonzaga down as the #1 overall seed.

I actually agree with you. They beat Texas, Texas Tech and UCLA. Lost to Duke, Alabama and ST Marys. The rest of their schedule is cupcake central....We have two better wins than their top wins in Gonzaga and UK. Not saying they aren't title contenders or a 1 seed, but not sure how they are viewed as a no brainer relative to us?

 

[duke4life831]

I actually agree with you. They beat Texas, Texas Tech and UCLA. Lost to Duke, Alabama and ST Marys. The rest of their schedule is cupcake central....We have two better wins than their top wins in Gonzaga and UK. Not saying they aren't title contenders or a 1 seed, but not sure how they are viewed as a no brainer relative to us?

Yup. If us playing in a bad ACC this year is hurting Duke so much in the rankings, why is it not hurting Gonzaga who plays in a mid major conference?

And again we have yet to have a game where we just got worked over.

UVA: Beats us with essentially a buzzer beater
FSU: Beats us by 1 point in OT (on the road)
Miami: We lose by 2 points
OSU: We lose by 5 but it was a tied game with 1 minute to go (on the road)

Those are our losses on the year, that's it. Then you factor in AJ was still recovering from his injury during the OSU game (only played 2 minutes) and Keels got injured in the FSU loss. This team fully healthy has lost on a buzzer beater and another game by just 2 points.

Its just crazy to me that Gonzaga just gets penciled in as a 1 and we seem to be viewed as a borderline 1 at best.

 

[Liftee]

If you can explain to me how NET and RPI work, I would explain to you why 4 or 5 teams are way ahead of us. I think the ACC is considered a lot weaker than we think (or know) based on early season OOC losses.

 

[KDSTONE]

Yup. If us playing in a bad ACC this year is hurting Duke so much in the rankings, why is it not hurting Gonzaga who plays in a mid major conference?

And again we have yet to have a game where we just got worked over.

UVA: Beats us with essentially a buzzer beater
FSU: Beats us by 1 point in OT (on the road)
Miami: We lose by 2 points
OSU: We lose by 5 but it was a tied game with 1 minute to go (on the road)

Those are our losses on the year, that's it. Then you factor in AJ was still recovering from his injury during the OSU game (only played 2 minutes) and Keels got injured in the FSU loss. This team fully healthy has lost on a buzzer beater and another game by just 2 points.

Its just crazy to me that Gonzaga just gets penciled in as a 1 and we seem to be viewed as a borderline 1 at best.

Ooc Gonzaga has beaten Texas, TT and UCLA but lost to Duke and Alabama. If they were in any of the power 5s I would say they lose at least three more games. I’d put them at 2 and move a Wisc Purdue or Uk at 1. Gonzaga in the WCC would be like Duke in the American. You’ll lose a game or two on the road every now and then: Zion’s year we barely beat UCF in the tourney but you shouldn’t be rewarded for cupcake conf play

 

[christophero]

Duke is number 2 in the new USA Today poll.

 

[The_Only_Blue]

 

[The_Only_Blue]

FSU beat Notre Dame, we are outright ACC champs!!!