There is understandably a lot of media chatter about Duke currently being on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament. While that is probably correct if the selections had been made yesterday, it’s way too soon to rule them out. Much of the analysis focuses on their NET rating, and their 0-3 mark against Quadrant 1 teams. That combined with the overall weakness of the ACC creates some challenges for Duke to move up. But I think those challenges are overstated. To begin with, the data is still somewhat preliminary and subject to significant variance. Duke moved up from 79 to 62 on the Clemson win, which shows the volatility. Plus, 3 of the top 20 NET teams currently have no Quad 1 wins and 2 more have only 1, so it isn’t as though you need a bunch of Quad 1 wins to have a chance, and Duke has a decent shot at several Quad 1 wins by the end of the season. One or more of the games Duke has already won could become Quad 1 wins, which are defined as home game wins against a team in the top 30 of NET, and road wins against a top 75 team. The wins already posted against Notre Dame (81) and Wake (105) could end up as Quad 1 wins if those teams move up into the top 75, as could the Georgia Tech (55) home win if Tech climbed up to the top 30. The upcoming home game against UVA (8) and the road games against UNC (48) and Ga Tech should all be Quad 1 games, and the Louisville(45), UNC and Syracuse (51) home games and the NC St (85) road game could become Quad 1 games if any of those teams move up. If the ACC Tournament is played, some or all of those games could be Quad 1 games, which are neutral site games against top 50 teams. So plenty of opportunity still in front of Duke.
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