Sam Vecenie came out today with his comprehensive NBA draft guide for The Athletic. As draft analysts go, I think he is very good—quite detailed and analytical. Here is a summary of his thoughts about the Duke players:
Jalen Johnson: #25 on his board. Says that Johnson is outstanding in the open court—great passer, makes excellent reads on the fly and can go downhill to the basket with great effectiveness. Also thinks he can be a very capable defender and function at times as a 6-9 point forward. Plus excellent length. The downside is his play on offense in half court situations. Very poor form on his shot, no two shots look the same, and he lacks the foot speed or burst to get beyond his man, who will inevitably go under screens on him. And there are the personal concerns.
My take: I have seen credible predictions on him everywhere from top 10 (John Hollinger) to late first round. If you think his shot can be fixed, he has much more upside than almost anyone after the top 8 or so, but clearly he could slide.
Matthew Hurt: #60. Hurt’s strengths are the obvious. NBA-quality shooter and also one of the best post-up players in the draft. Can get his shot off against just about anyone. But he lacks the foot speed and lateral quickness to defend anyone on the perimeter, and isn’t big or strong enough to defend a true NBA 5. He’s also a poor passer—makes emergency passes when doubled, but rarely to the right player. Upside if he can become a serviceable defender is a Doug McDermott equivalent.
DJ Steward: #78. Great open floor shot creator. Fast, can shift gears, goes hard to the rim and absorbs contact well, shoots the three with confidence in transition. But at his size, he can’t defend anyone. NBA teams will hunt him down with switches and he will be taken to the rim every time. His lack of strength is a big problem defensively and limits the range on his shot. And he lacks the passing and playmaking skills to be a combo guard in the half court. He must get bigger and stronger and improve his shot to have a chance (sounds like someone who should have stayed in school).
My personal guess is that Johnson goes mid-first round, Hurt mid to late second and DJ signs a two-way free agent deal somewhere and spends the year in the G League. For those who think the NBA doesn’t care about defense, the only one of these three who is considered a capable defender is the only one certain to be drafted.
Jalen Johnson: #25 on his board. Says that Johnson is outstanding in the open court—great passer, makes excellent reads on the fly and can go downhill to the basket with great effectiveness. Also thinks he can be a very capable defender and function at times as a 6-9 point forward. Plus excellent length. The downside is his play on offense in half court situations. Very poor form on his shot, no two shots look the same, and he lacks the foot speed or burst to get beyond his man, who will inevitably go under screens on him. And there are the personal concerns.
My take: I have seen credible predictions on him everywhere from top 10 (John Hollinger) to late first round. If you think his shot can be fixed, he has much more upside than almost anyone after the top 8 or so, but clearly he could slide.
Matthew Hurt: #60. Hurt’s strengths are the obvious. NBA-quality shooter and also one of the best post-up players in the draft. Can get his shot off against just about anyone. But he lacks the foot speed and lateral quickness to defend anyone on the perimeter, and isn’t big or strong enough to defend a true NBA 5. He’s also a poor passer—makes emergency passes when doubled, but rarely to the right player. Upside if he can become a serviceable defender is a Doug McDermott equivalent.
DJ Steward: #78. Great open floor shot creator. Fast, can shift gears, goes hard to the rim and absorbs contact well, shoots the three with confidence in transition. But at his size, he can’t defend anyone. NBA teams will hunt him down with switches and he will be taken to the rim every time. His lack of strength is a big problem defensively and limits the range on his shot. And he lacks the passing and playmaking skills to be a combo guard in the half court. He must get bigger and stronger and improve his shot to have a chance (sounds like someone who should have stayed in school).
My personal guess is that Johnson goes mid-first round, Hurt mid to late second and DJ signs a two-way free agent deal somewhere and spends the year in the G League. For those who think the NBA doesn’t care about defense, the only one of these three who is considered a capable defender is the only one certain to be drafted.
