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Make no mistake: Duke is going to be ridiculously good.

AxeS24

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Jul 23, 2018
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Last year, I predicted 35-5 with a banner, barring no injuries. Well, we obviously had Shoegate and came up short, going 32-6. I was closer than most of the "pessimists", however. But that's over. New year, new team.

This team is going to be extremely good. There is no Zion, that is true. However, the pieces fit really well, and I think we'll be better overall.

Wendell Moore is an absolute stud. He will be in the Winslow conversation (from a BPM standpoint) and a potential lottery pick. He is extremely smart, efficient from 2, solid from 3 after improving his mechanics, and will be a plus defender. He shot 58% from 2 in AAU, which is nearly 10% points higher than both Cam and RJ. I have seen Wendell in the top 10 on several mock drafts. It's not consensus, but it's out there.

Matthew Hurt is another great player. He will be on the borderline of the lottery. Another Twitter user said if his name were Hurtzokov, he'd be a top 5 pick, and that may be true. Hurt is a good defender, has great finishing ability, and is supremely skilled. He and Carey will form the best 1-2 frontcourt pair in the nation. He can flat out shoot it.

Tre Jones- we know how great he is. I think his 3 point shooting has improved, and K has lauded his layup making abilities. He will be a mid-1st rounder, IMO. A great leader, very smart, will be more efficient on 2s and 3s.

Vernon Carey Jr- another great player. He is the most "ready" of all the young college bigs to dominate in college from day 1. He is enormous and skilled. He is also very versatile. Can hit midrange and 3s. Not as nimble as Zion, but he's nimble. He needs to focus on defense and bringing intensity every night, and he will be a 1st round pick.

That's 4 1st round picks, more than anyone else in the country, led by Tre Jones.



The 2 guard position is a question mark. We all know the deal with Alex. Can he defend well enough to stay on the floor? He's an A+ shooter with lots of potential. Cassius Stanley is a supreme athlete. He should be a good defender in time. Can he hit 3s and be a good finisher? If he does, I can see him taking the spot and going early 2nd/late 1st. Think Hamidou Diallo.

Jack White- I watched him at the world university games this year. Just a smart player. Excellent defense/positioning/etc. If he can get back to hitting 3s, he's the perfect role player.

Javin DeLaurier- has earned a lot of praise from Coach K. The advanced stats love his defense. If he can avoid the fouls and continue finishing around the rim with great efficiency, this is another championship piece for the Devils.

Goldwire and Baker in blowouts.

No other team in the country has as much talent. Is it Zion-level talent? No, it is not. But it is more OVERALL talent.

As we know, talent does not always mesh, it doesn't always fit, it doesn't always work out as expected.

But I would favor nobody this year over Duke.

3 regular season losses. I don't predict NCAA tourny anymore, but I would say Duke has a "better chance" than anyone else.

Let's Go.
 
Duke has a chance to have 4 starters shooting 55% from inside the arc while being a much improved 3-point shooting team.

This has all the makings of a number 1 Kenpom offense.

Hurt, Moore, Jones, Stanley, White, and DeLaurier will all be solid to very good defenders.

This may be Duke's best and most balanced team of the decade.
 
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Last year, I predicted 35-5 with a banner, barring no injuries. Well, we obviously had Shoegate and came up short, going 32-6. I was closer than most of the "pessimists", however. But that's over. New year, new team.

This team is going to be extremely good. There is no Zion, that is true. However, the pieces fit really well, and I think we'll be better overall.

Wendell Moore is an absolute stud. He will be in the Winslow conversation (from a BPM standpoint) and a potential lottery pick. He is extremely smart, efficient from 2, solid from 3 after improving his mechanics, and will be a plus defender. He shot 58% from 2 in AAU, which is nearly 10% points higher than both Cam and RJ. I have seen Wendell in the top 10 on several mock drafts. It's not consensus, but it's out there.

Matthew Hurt is another great player. He will be on the borderline of the lottery. Another Twitter user said if his name were Hurtzokov, he'd be a top 5 pick, and that may be true. Hurt is a good defender, has great finishing ability, and is supremely skilled. He and Carey will form the best 1-2 frontcourt pair in the nation. He can flat out shoot it.

Tre Jones- we know how great he is. I think his 3 point shooting has improved, and K has lauded his layup making abilities. He will be a mid-1st rounder, IMO. A great leader, very smart, will be more efficient on 2s and 3s.

Vernon Carey Jr- another great player. He is the most "ready" of all the young college bigs to dominate in college from day 1. He is enormous and skilled. He is also very versatile. Can hit midrange and 3s. Not as nimble as Zion, but he's nimble. He needs to focus on defense and bringing intensity every night, and he will be a 1st round pick.

That's 4 1st round picks, more than anyone else in the country, led by Tre Jones.



The 2 guard position is a question mark. We all know the deal with Alex. Can he defend well enough to stay on the floor? He's an A+ shooter with lots of potential. Cassius Stanley is a supreme athlete. He should be a good defender in time. Can he hit 3s and be a good finisher? If he does, I can see him taking the spot and going early 2nd/late 1st. Think Hamidou Diallo.

Jack White- I watched him at the world university games this year. Just a smart player. Excellent defense/positioning/etc. If he can get back to hitting 3s, he's the perfect role player.

Javin DeLaurier- has earned a lot of praise from Coach K. The advanced stats love his defense. If he can avoid the fouls and continue finishing around the rim with great efficiency, this is another championship piece for the Devils.

Goldwire and Baker in blowouts.

No other team in the country has as much talent. Is it Zion-level talent? No, it is not. But it is more OVERALL talent.

As we know, talent does not always mesh, it doesn't always fit, it doesn't always work out as expected.

But I would favor nobody this year over Duke.

3 regular season losses. I don't predict NCAA tourny anymore, but I would say Duke has a "better chance" than anyone else.

Let's Go.


I can't argue with that. Injuries always make things more difficult. Let's ours are limited to just about 0. OFC
 
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I think defense will actually be a strength early on and the offense will come together later in the season, which is usually the opposite for us. Expect some low scoring games early on as well.
 
I predict we beat Kansas by 5-7 points.

I don't think Self will let us demolish his team like we did to Kentucky.
 
Op, I think Duke will be good, but I’m not buying “ridiculously good.”

We were ridiculously good last year. I’d be shocked if we made it to the Final Four with this roster. If we do, it would be one of K’s best coaching jobs EVER!
 
This team doesn't have near the talent of last year obviously, but I do think the pieces fit better together. They are gonna have to fit perfectly though if we wanna even sniff being as good as last season. I know we didn't make the Final 4, but we were the best team in the country, so there's that.

Personally, I'd be shocked if we are as good as last year, but in order for that to happen I think all of these things need to take place....
1. AOC needs to make the "leap." Outside of Cam, I thought he was our most disappointing player last year, I didn't see much improvement from his freshman year. For us to be great next season, AOC needs to become a 10+ ppg type guy and be counted on to start every game. I understand him and Cassius will battle for the starting spot, I think Alex needs to win that and be much better than last year for us.

2. Javin and/or Jack need to have a Zoubek/Lance Thomas senior season. Javin and Jack just being seniors and following the same trajectory that they have been following ain't gonna be good enough. 1 of them needs to take a MAJOR step forward and have an "out of nowhere" type season just like big Zou did. My money would be on Javin, his stats per 40 minutes have actually been on par with some of our elite OAD freshman, he just needs to stop fouling so much. If Jack can regain his November 2018 form, that could be enough.

3. Vernon Carey JR needs to be an All-ACC 1st team type guy. Vernon seems to have a massive variance of outcomes this season. 6 months ago, he was possibly the #1 freshman in the class and a possible National POY candidate, now I've been reading articles stating Vernon possibly may not even start for us. He needs to have a Jahlil Okafor type season IMO for us to be national title contenders.

I think we know Tre is gonna be our leader and a stud. Wendell is gonna be good at everything, not great at anything besides possibly on-ball defense.
Something that actually worries me is how good we need Wendell to be. I mean...we need him to be great, he's gonna be starting the 3. We need him to score and be an absolute dynamic defender. That is a lot to hope for for a guy who wasn't a top 10 recruit.
 
I don't think it's so obvious.

There is no Zion on this team BUT I think all the freshmen are better than Barrett and Reddish.

Here's how I would rank our last two classes:

1. Zion

2. Tre
3. Moore
4. Hurt
5. Carey
6. Barrett

7. Reddish
 
Moore wasn't ranked top 10 but who cares? Zion wasn't number 1.

Moore is a flat-out stud.
 
You do realize RJ was a consensus first team AA right?

I haven't really paid attention to awards or AA teams since Tyler Hansbrough won POY over Michael Beasley.

I am speaking from an advanced statistics perspective.

Barrett posted a 7.7 BPM. That's pretty much Jayson Tatum. Great player.

But I think Moore will be in the Winslow range (10 BPM) and Carey and Hurt will be higher, as well.

That's just how I see it. I thought Tre and Zion were the two best players last year for us.
 
I haven't really paid attention to awards or AA teams since Tyler Hansbrough won POY over Michael Beasley.

I am speaking from an advanced statistics perspective.

Barrett posted a 7.7 BPM. That's pretty much Jayson Tatum. Great player.

But I think Moore will be in the Winslow range (10 BPM) and Carey and Hurt will be higher, as well.

That's just how I see it. I thought Tre and Zion were the two best players last year for us.
I’m sorry, what is BPM??

I’d also take Tatum over any of those listed prior...except Zion and RJ.
 
I haven't really paid attention to awards or AA teams since Tyler Hansbrough won POY over Michael Beasley.

I am speaking from an advanced statistics perspective.

Barrett posted a 7.7 BPM. That's pretty much Jayson Tatum. Great player.

But I think Moore will be in the Winslow range (10 BPM) and Carey and Hurt will be higher, as well.

That's just how I see it. I thought Tre and Zion were the two best players last year for us.
Would love for you to be right man, i don’t see it happening that way in any capacity but would LOVE to be wrong.
 
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I’m sorry, what is BPM??

I’d also take Tatum over any of those listed prior...except Zion and RJ.

Box Plus Minus.

It is similar to WAR in baseball. It adds up your total contributions into one statistic.

I would take Winslow over Tatum. Winslow was an absolute beast.
 
I don't think it's so obvious.

There is no Zion on this team BUT I think all the freshmen are better than Barrett and Reddish.

Here's how I would rank our last two classes:

1. Zion

2. Tre
3. Moore
4. Hurt
5. Carey
6. Barrett

7. Reddish

You do realize that your "last two classes" don't even include everybody in those classes.

And, without piling on too much the idea that Barrett is sixth among this group is a bit detached from reality.
 
Box Plus Minus.

It is similar to WAR in baseball. It adds up your total contributions into one statistic.

I would take Winslow over Tatum. Winslow was an absolute beast.
I meant your original list which didn't include Winslow.

Winslow was a beast, you are correct. For our team this year to be amazing, we need Wendell Moore to be as good as Justise Winslow IMO, which is an extremely tall task.

BTW, are you Matt Giles?
 
Box Plus Minus.

It is similar to WAR in baseball. It adds up your total contributions into one statistic.

I would take Winslow over Tatum. Winslow was an absolute beast.
Is that different than normal plus minus? I think the plus minus is an extremely flawed measuring stick

While Winslow is probably the more picked player based on their duke only season, roster makeup and other variables had a lot to do with both player’s outputs.
 
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You do realize that your "last two classes" don't even include everybody in those classes.

And, without piling on too much the idea that Barrett is sixth among this group is a bit detached from reality.

I'm not that high on Stanley or Baker.

I understand Barrett has the record for most freshmen points, 3rd overall pick, etc.

And advanced stats are not a 100% way of determining value, but it gives you a great idea. Zion's BPM last year was 20. Haha. (the highest ever)

I'm just saying don't be surprised when this team is sensationally good.
 
Tatum at the end of the season was awesome. He started out pretty bad but he found his way. I’d take him over any of our freshman not to say they’re bad but he was that good near the end.
 
I'm not that high on Stanley or Baker.

I understand Barrett has the record for most freshmen points, 3rd overall pick, etc.

And advanced stats are not a 100% way of determining value, but it gives you a great idea. Zion's BPM last year was 20. Haha. (the highest ever)

I'm just saying don't be surprised when this team is sensationally good.


Maybe we should wait until this season is over before ranking. This years class hasn't even played an exhibition game. OFC
 
I dont see any of these freshman better than RJ, maybe better free throw shooters I hope. And maybe I'm wrong but wasnt defense a knock on Hurt?
 
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That would be the same with RJ, speaking on the defense part. I said Hurt was further along on defense then he expected. The difference to me between last years team is, it will take a collective effort from the whole team as last year it was the Zion and RJ show along with Cam when he was on.

To me we need Alex to hit the three like Cam and Moore to defend like him.

I am actually read to see this Duke team play because it’s gonna take all of them to advance
 
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I think the closest thing we have to a guarantee is Tre. If his outside shot has improved, we could be a dangerous team. We are all hoping we have some good balance.
Tre will definitely help in that area. Always helps having an unselfish point guard.
 
The one thing this team has going for it, is that there are only 2-3 top notch teams in college this year; MSU, Louisville and Kansas. Kentucky has the same issues we do with unknowns.
 
Seems like the tournament has become a 3 point shooting contest, how does Duke look in that regard?
 
I meant your original list which didn't include Winslow.

Winslow was a beast, you are correct. For our team this year to be amazing, we need Wendell Moore to be as good as Justise Winslow IMO, which is an extremely tall task.

BTW, are you Matt Giles?
He's either Matt Giles or sjsj from the premium board because the same post is on the premium board along with the Zion got bigger post.
 
Last year was like 2006, a ton of hype, mega star player paired with another All America, a third young player who showed flashes but couldn't find consistency, and eventually became a team a little too reliant on its star players. Both were amazing seasons to experience as a fan and both were the best 2 or 3 teams in the country, but neither team was complete enough to win a title. Obviously 2010 didn't have nearly the high end talent that last year's team had and didn't have the mega star talent like 06 but 10 won it all. It doesn't always have to be about the talent or how many lottery picks you have. Most of the time it is about how well the pieces fit together, how tough and together a team is, and then how talented and healthy a team is. Many of us thought that 2010 was just going to be a bridge year and 2011 would be the championship year when we would have high end talent in Irving and great returnees. Sometimes the championship caliber team will sneak up on everybody.

I think this is going to be a surprising team, one with great balance and depth (for a Duke team). I do think that the backcourt is going to be much more consistent and mesh better than last year. Tre is a year older, AOC and Goldwire are now upperclassmen, Wendell has a mature game and will have a major impact every game without needing to touch the ball a ton or have plays ran for him (similar to Winslow), and Cassius is an older freshman. That will be a steady, talented, and tough backcourt which is always very important. And none of them are ball dominant (that we know of).
 
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I am sjsj.

Who is Matt Giles?
I knew it as soon as I saw your post title. How you doing man? I remember last year around this time on the premium board, guys was coming at you hard for your predictions. I had to step away from the premium board for awhile. For me, it got unbearable at times.
 
The one thing this team has going for it, is that there are only 2-3 top notch teams in college this year; MSU, Louisville and Kansas. Kentucky has the same issues we do with unknowns.

I think Florida will be really good, too. They return 3 starters, bring in Kerry Blackshear & two 5-star recruits.
 
I knew it as soon as I saw your post title. How you doing man? I remember last year around this time on the premium board, guys was coming at you hard for your predictions. I had to step away from the premium board for awhile. For me, it got unbearable at times.

I'm doing well, man. You?

Yeah, the premium board can be a beast in a bad way. You just can't let it get to you and you need to be confident in yourself.
 
Here are the player efficiency ratings of all our freshmen that were 5-star recruits this decade:

Zion Williamson, 40.8
Kyrie Irving, 32.5
Jahlil Okafor, 30.7
Marvin Bagley, 30.6
Jabari Parker, 28.4
Wendell Carter, 28.2
RJ Barrett, 23.3
Brandon Ingram, 22.5
Justise Winslow, 22.3
Jayson Tatum, 22.0
Tyus Jones, 20.4
Harry Giles, 19.8
Luke Kennard, 19.5
Grayson Allen, 19.3
Frank Jackson, 17.0
Austin Rivers, 16.9
Gary Trent, 16.7
Rasheed Sulaimon, 16.2
Tre Jones, 15.4
Mason Plumlee, 14.8
Trevon Duval, 13.7
Cam Reddish, 13.6
Ryan Kelly, 10.4
Chase Jeter, 9.7
Derryck Thornton, 9.4
Marques Bolden, 7.2
 
I think Florida will be really good, too. They return 3 starters, bring in Kerry Blackshear & two 5-star recruits.

Very true. I’d love to see them work Kentucky and win the SEC. We’ll really get to see Kevin White’s coaching ability with this squad.
 
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