Honest Opinions On Who Should and Will Start Next Season...

[IrishDukie908]

First time poster long time follower of the board and long time Duke fan. Just curious of what everyones thoughts are of who should and will start next year. This question is based off of everyone playing at a high level before the season starts. I think PG and SF are pretty locked up by Thorton and Ingram if they are as good as advertised. The questions start at is it Allen or Jones at the 2 and who starts down low? Is it Amile and Plum or do Jeter and Obi crack it. I believe this will be a year you see K use a heavy rotation of guys as hes got some big time talent coming off that bench but just curious of who you think will be the starting 5 come the first game of the year.

 

[jbkeller72]

Thornton
Allen
Ingram
Jeter
Obi

I think you might see Jefferson get the nod early, but I like his (and Plumlee's) energy off the bench. Might also see Jones starting with Ingram at the stretch 4. Lots of combinations... nice to know they'll go 9 deep next year.

 

[LTDukeFan]

Welcome aboard! Nice group of guys here.

To you question -- I think you might be giving the term "starter" too much weight. The question will be what is the distribution of minutes. I know that Thorton will get a lot -- especially if he is a "pass-first" guard. I see equal minutes for Allen / Jones. I see Jeter getting more minutes than Plumlee/Obi combined.

I think the starters at the beginning of the season will be different when conference play starts.

 

[IrishDukie908]

Welcome aboard! Nice group of guys here.

To you question -- I think you might be giving the term "starter" too much weight. The question will be what is the distribution of minutes. I know that Thorton will get a lot -- especially if he is a "pass-first" guard. I see equal minutes for Allen / Jones. I see Jeter getting more minutes than Plumlee/Obi combined.

I think the starters at the beginning of the season will be different when conference play starts.

Totally understand what ur saying as far as there will be a lot of guys fighting for minutes and as I stated in the post that I think K will use a rotation of guys throughout the games. But its always nice too see who that first starting 5 to step on the court for the first game of the year since we arent there in practices and cant see whats going on behind closed doors. It gives you a sense of who was really doing it up before the season begins.

 

[HuffyJB]

Most years I feel there is a lot more certainty to the likely starters than there seems to be for 2015-16. You can usually determine who most of the starters are well before the year, but with this group I'm not sure. You could reasonably argue that Thornton is the only "lock" (due to both skill and necessity). Its going to be fun.

I personally think we go with 4 wings and a big more often than not, much like this year's team down the stretch. That would mean Thornton/Allen/Jones/Ingram/5 TBD.

 

[jibip]

I think the starters at the beginning of the year will be:

Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Jeter/Obi (really hard to say)

but from a minutes distribution, that's the bigger question, b/c these players will have a lot of versatility. Could we potentially see a 9 deep rotation? I feel like we could.

I still wouldn't put plumlees min/game avg above 10, but the others all will be IMO. Not that Marshall won't have a role next year, but I just feel like his role is well-established.

 

[youngman42]

Start of season:
Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jeter
Jefferson

At some point in the season this will be a staring lineup:
Thornton
Jones
Allen
Ingram
Jeter

Possibly year end:
Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jeter
Obi

 

[hallside]

Start of the year:

Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Jeter

By the NCAA Tourney:

Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Jeter

 

[dbav]

I think the starters at the beginning of the year will be:

Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Jeter/Obi (really hard to say)

This seems likely to me.

 

[dukiejay]

Hard to see Matt Jones not starting. He's going to make huge strides again next season.

Right now, I think the best lineup may look like Thornton, Allen, Jones, Ingram, and Amile/Jeter. But things will play out.

 

[Tdash16]

Agree with this, but would put MP3 at the 5. Remember when we played with Amile and Jabari as our 'bigs?' Not good. Could not defend the post at all. Don't think we should tinker with that again. We need a true 5 on the floor if Ingram is our other 'big.' (Assuming Amile as the 5 in your proposed lineup. Don't know yet if Jeter can defend the 5 right away, but skeptical at this point).

 

[krzyzewskiville]

Hard to see Matt Jones not starting. He's going to make huge strides again next season.

Right now, I think the best lineup may look like Thornton, Allen, Jones, Ingram, and Amile/Jeter. But things will play out.

This. Jeter isn't the lock that everyone seems to think IMO. I think Jones is a definite start - expect much bigger things. I'd be surprised if Allen doesn't, too. I could see Ingram playing the four and Jeter/Jefferson at the five which would allow Allen at the three and Kennard at the two? Hope you got all that lol...It's going to be a battle.

 

[adm015]

Man Coach K has so many different lineups that he can go with next year. We have shooters, athletes, big men who can defend, a deep bench, great defensive players and players who can rebound too. I am not concerned about who starts but who finishes the game.

 

[ACC Bball Fan]

Man Coach K has so many different lineups that he can go with next year. We have shooters, athletes, big men who can defend, a deep bench, great defensive players and players who can rebound too. I am not concerned about who starts but who finishes the game.

You are so right.

Duke has one PG and one natural WF, plus 3 other combos/wings and 4 bigs.

So he can slide Ingram from WF/PF to leverage both.

When coack K absolutely needs a stop:

MP3/Obi, Jefferson, Jones, Allen and whichever of Thornton/Ingram fits the situation, with defensive skills of Jeter/Kennard unknown at college level.

When scoring is a must

Thornton, Kennard, Allen, Ingram and Jeter by default since none of MP3/Obi/Jefferson shine of Offensive end, with Jones available if one of the 5 is not.

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

I think Thornton, Jones, and Ingram will start, but the other 2 positions could go any number of ways imo. And of course, whatever line-up K utilizes will be subject to change if he's not getting the results he wants. Should be fun watching all these talented players competing for minutes, and pushing each other to improve their worth to the team.

OFC

 

[Crank_it_loud]

Many people are expecting Obi to start at the 5 - I highly doubt that happens. He will be splitting time at the 4, and Marshall and Chase will split at the 5. There will be spells of Amile at the 5, but if that is Duke's primary line-up then they will get pounded in the post.

 

[HuffyJB]

I too doubt we see a lot of time with Amile at the 5. Duke has too much depth and talent to need to play people out of position.

 

[dbav]

Still would love to see plenty of opportunities to get Kennard and Allen on the floor at the same time. Put Ingram out there as well and it should be a fun show.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

I don't see how Amile won't start. He is likely going to be a senior captain. Now, how many minutes can he earn is the question. He needs to polish his face-up game this offseason.

 

[stanleyduke]

Its a lock IMO that Thornton and Jones start in the back court (guys Jones started in the National Championship game with Cook, Tyus, and Winslow on the roster - thats all you need to know on how much K values him and his defense). Ingram will start as well. I like Allen and Kennard off the bench.

I think the biggest question is who starts upfront and I see that being a rotating door of Amile, Obi, and Jeter. I think Plumlee's role is off the bench.

 

[jibip]

I don't see how Amile won't start. He is likely going to be a senior captain. Now, how many minutes can he earn is the question. He needs to polish his face-up game this offseason.

I think at the beginning of the year that is likely. But I could see a situation like his past year where as the new guys mature, smile could come off the bench to provide leadership with the second unit.

 

[JCColsCane]

Really hard to tell at this stage in time, and the options for lineups are many, but for fun I will go with this:

Start the season with this starting lineup:
Thornton
Jones
Allen
Ingram
Jeter

A lot will depend on the team we are playing and the matchups. What a great position to be in for Coach K.
Go Duke!!


JC-OFC

 

[crazyduke3]

I think the only locks to start are Derryck and Amile. Now after that it get's pretty fierce....


PG: DT
SG: Matt Jones
SF: Brandon Ingram
PF: Amile Jefferson
C: Sean Obi


I really struggled over Matt and Grayson. I do think Matt will be better next year than last year.... but what is typically the rule? Biggest jump freshman year to sophmore? Matt isn't making that Jump, but grayson is. I actually think Grayson will be a better player than matt next year. However, I think Matt starts at the beginning of the year. I see a lot of times where we have our typical 3 guard and SF at PF lineup. Sean has had two years to develop here at duke and I think he'll be quite better and ready for a starting spot. Specifically, his ability to clean up the glass is what I like him to come in and start for. Some say, no he'll play PF... I'm not sure about that in the slightest. I think Jeter is more fit for the 4, than Sean. Frankly, I think trying to figure out the 4 and 5 combos that K is going to use is VERY hard. We'll see.



Ready to see these boys play!

 

[Neners]

Start of the year:

Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Jeter

By the NCAA Tourney:

Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Jeter

I think these are going to be our two main lineups throughout the year, depending on the matchup. We've had a lot of success with that 3-guard lineup.

 

[ACC Bball Fan]

Hard to see Matt Jones not starting. He's going to make huge strides again next season.

Right now, I think the best lineup may look like Thornton, Allen, Jones, Ingram, and Amile/Jeter. But things will play out.

Really hard to tell at this stage in time, and the options for lineups are many, but for fun I will go with this:

Start the season with this starting lineup:
Thornton
Jones
Allen
Ingram
Jeter

A lot will depend on the team we are playing and the matchups. What a great position to be in for Coach K.
Go Duke!!


JC-OFC

Thornton
Allen
Ingram
Jeter
Obi

I think you might see Jefferson get the nod early, but I like his (and Plumlee's) energy off the bench. Might also see Jones starting with Ingram at the stretch 4. Lots of combinations... nice to know they'll go 9 deep next year.

The ultimate lineup of Thornton, Allen, Jones, Ingram plus a post player seems to have unviersal agreement other than no concensus of which of Amile/Chase/Marshall/ Sean starts at center.

plus, whether he starts or is energy guy off the bench, Amile Jefferson plays starter minutes.

Based on his near double double at Rice, I go with Sean Obi backed up by MP3 for sheer size. Whichever is in the game does not alter Duke's use of them for screens, rebounds and defensive stopper much, but at end of game FT % can be a concern much like Jah in that regard.

Chase and Amile have the athleticism to better guard a large mobile PF too big for Ingram's current size.

Player GP MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%

Sean Obi 30 26.4 11.4 9.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.0 .591 .544 .000

Duke essentially has 4 traditional combos and four traditional post players with Brandon Ingram a big get since he offers the flexibility that Dunleavy and Justise and Singler and so many others in past did to slide from either WF or PF to balance out the collective skills of the other 8.

Though not as dominant as any of Tyus, Quinn, Justise, or big Jah at their respective positions, this lineup is good enough to maintain the NCAAT champion bench of Amile, MP3 and a Grayson Allen equivalent in Luke, with Chase as additional insurance to "eight is enough"

They are very good but no so good to scare off Tatum, Giles and Smith due to fears of PT availability.

 

[pisgah101]

I want allen to start!

 

[aah555]

It really is completely impossible to project, and I think K would say that if he were slipped truth serum. We've amassed a lot of talent, but it's hard to know how it will all fit together until we see how guys emerge over the off season and where our freshman are when they step-in on campus.

IMO, one key question will be whether Ingram can rebound and hold his own defensively at the 4 position, or will we have to use him nearly exclusively at the 3 -- with the move to the 4 being an occasional in-game adjustment against smaller teams? As much as K loves stretch 4s, it's a bit hard to see Ingram holding up against most of the 4s he will have to face in the ACC. If that's the case, that will necessarily push Amile into the starting lineup and squeeze either Matt or Grayson out of the starting lineup. And, on that point, I'm not sure why people seem to think Amile's going to be a minor player on next year's team. Under any scenario, I bet he averages a minimum of 20+ -- but more likely 25-30. I think he will be the undisputed on court leader for next year's team.

If Ingram is primarily limited to the 3, the other key question will be (i) how well does he score, and (ii) how well does he defend the perimeter. If he's a high-volume scorer (ala Rodney Hood or a poor-man's Jabari) and a poor perimeter defender, I think we'd probably start Matt to ensure we have a good wing defender to start the games. If Ingram's good, but not great offensively, but plays decent defense on the wing, I think Grayson probably starts to give us more of a scoring -- particularly b/c then we're playing with 2 bigs who are not going to be bigtime scorers.

With regard to Jeter, similarly, is he strong enough to defend the 5? If yes, I think he clearly has the most upside of the guys we have on the roster and may eventually work his way into a starting role. If he's struggling, though, I don't think his offense will be good enough to keep him on the court and he may find himself pretty buried on the depth chart behind guys like Plumlee / Obi -- who should be able to do a pretty good job defending / rebounding the position.

The Ingram / Jeter questions are just a couple of the many clear unknowns about next year's team. It really is impossible to know until we have a better sense of what guys like Ingram / Jeter can and cannot do on the court.

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

thornton, allen, ingram, jefferson, obi

 

[Crank_it_loud]

Jeter isn't playing the 4 unless he's besides Plumlee. Obi isn't manning the 5 unless Mp and Jeter are in foul trouble IMO.

 

[dukehokie]

To start the season:
Thornton
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson
Plumlee

Mid-season:
Thornton
Allen
Ingram
Jefferson
Obi

End of season:
Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Plumlee

 

[aah555]

Obi's a pretty big mystery at this point as well. While I can see Obi playing some 4 against big teams that like to pound the ball inside, I think the 4 spot seems to be a bit of a stretch for him to play against most of the more mobile 4s we see in the ACC -- particularly in view of the pressure, man-to-man style Coach K likes to play. I frankly can't think of the last time we've had a guy with Obi's bodytype play the 4. IMO, while he could get some situational minutes at the 4, I think he's going to have to play the 5 to get consistent minutes.

In fact, if you look at Duke's website, they list Obi at 6'9 270. Now, while I think that's a bit of an overlist, that's far more Elton Brand / Carlos Boozer / Sheldon Williams size (all of whom played center at duke) than anyone we've ever played at the 4.

 

[HuffyJB]

With guys like Ingram, Jeter, and Jefferson on the roster, I doubt Obi ever plays the 4. It is just isn't needed.

 

[ACC Bball Fan]

To start the season:
...
End of season:
Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Plumlee

I pretty much agree with this with Plumlee/Obi interchanged.

30 Thornton 10 Allen 40
25 Jones 15 Allen 40
25 Ingram 15 Kennard 40
25 Jefferson 15 Jeter 40
25 Obi 15 Plumlee 40
130 starters 55 subs 200

Since the title of this thread is "
Honest Opinions On Who Should and Will Start Next Season."

To advance to later rounds of NCAAT, a team needs guys who the next year will be first round NBA draft picks. So this year, Brandon Ingram and Grayson Allen and possibly Sean Obi (not based on HS stats, but size and metrics at Rice) are best poised to do that, though not as highly as big Jah, Justise and Tyus.

Add in the only PG (Thornton) and the only returning starter (Jones) and you have your starters.

On the honest side, you need glue guys like Cook and Jones this past year and the three captains next year who won't be NBA first round but provide perpetuation of the species.

Gven that they come in from a relatively weak class, Derryck Thornton, Chase Jeter and Luke Kennard can develop into either one of these categories but at a minimum will be complementary who improve their future NBA prospects due to such great daily competition this year and next.

Its still a relatively young team so almost always Duke will have 1 or more captains on the floor, but when Duke has all 3, it cannot advance very far in the NCAAT.

If Ingram, Allen and Obi are good enough to relegate Amile and MP3 to the same NCAAT championship caliber bench with Luke in the Grayson role, Duke's potenntial to advance further increases.

Coach K will play them in a prominent bench role that preserves their dignity and leverages their seniority in the program, as the new frosh pay their dues for future stardom.

Next year Duke has the prospects to bring in the next several NBA one and done's, with ths year being a transition year.

With so much talent loss (we say this every year) across the NCAA due to graduation and NBA early entry with or w/o being drafted, and the relatively weak class pretty spread out across the blue bloods, Duke can be very competitive Top 25 or even Top 10 as usual.

Though we all sweat it out every year until all the potential recruits are signed, coach K just keeps on keeping on, executing a well developed succession plan each and every year, but never so early as to make us all comfortable until the end when we see what he has seen all along.

 

[peterjurkinsquirtsroywilliams]

PG Thornton
SG Allen
SF Ingram
PF Jefferson
C MP3

 

[CatcherForLife6]

Thornton
Allen
Ingram
Jeter
Jefferson

Jones, MP3 and Luke coming off the bench.


I could also see:
Thornton
Allen
Jones
Ingram
Jefferson

 

[timo0402]

Think we start with Thornton, Matty, Ingram, Amile and MP3. I like having a change of pace and bring in Grayson and Luke for a scoring punch. Those two should be on the floor together a lot b/c they compliment each other so well. It'll be interesting to see if they do a big guy platoon- Amile/MP3- Obi/Jeter, something along those lines.

 

[jnastasi]

Thronton
Matty (Allen should but Matty will)
Ingram
Amile
Obi

 

[madrussian]

so many options ----



We are all assuming that Thornton will start, but he needs to transition to the college game and we need to see how he does this. Ingram is going to play a lot and if he can deliver he will play. I can't see Grayson not starting. A star has been born and he is a potential "game changer". He needs prime time for sure. Matt Jones and Amile will play starter minutes whether they start or come off the bench.

wouldn't be surprised to see

thornton
jones
allen
ingram
jefferson

to start the season.

 

[skysdad]

There's so many variations I can't even begin to have an honest opinion. OFC