I see it the same way. I couldn't find the data that I wanted, (link below shows closest thing) but you could look at revenue in the OAD period for schools that rely on these kinds of players and compare changes in revenue for those programs compared to others and see if there is a significant uptick for those that rely on OAD and those that don't. From the link below, if you look at the 5-year increase in revenues, Duke and Kentucky don't outpace everyone. If these big-time players made a difference, you would expect to see Duke and Kentucky out front (or near the front) compared to other programs. It doesn't appear that this is the case.
Of course there are other factors (marketing, facilities) that affect these numbers, so this doesn't prove anything. Only that there really isn't any evidence that suggests Wendell Carter and the other OADs that we've had have done anything to increase revenues for the program that wouldn't have happened had we not signed them.
http://www.businessinsider.com/loui...016-2018-2#15-university-of-texas-17567914-11