Initial ESPN BPI for 2019-20
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...ll-bpi-likes-michigan-state-skeptical-memphis
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...ll-bpi-likes-michigan-state-skeptical-memphis
Does anyone rely on ESPN’s BPI?
- Thread starter Quavarius
- Start date
Teams in the top four in preseason BPI have won the national championship in 10 of the past 12 years, with both UConn titles as the exceptions (note that this includes seasons that were back-tested in the model's creation). This season's top four: Michigan State, Florida, Virginia and Villanova.
Duke is No. 5
Duke is No. 5
Life after Zion: Duke will be just fine
In each of the past two seasons, BPI has been down on the Blue Devils relative to the preseason polls. But actually, that is not the case this year.
Duke is 5th in BPI and 4th in the AP poll. The model has found that elite recruits don't predict success as much as a high percentage of returning minutes of quality players. Duke brings in three ESPN 100 five-star recruits but this year has the luxury of returning Tre Jones. Duke also brings back role players Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell, and Jack White, who each had over 500 minutes last season.
With more of a mix between experience and highly touted recruits this season, expect Duke to be fighting for a No. 1 seed in March (25% chance per BPI) and making another run at a national title.
In each of the past two seasons, BPI has been down on the Blue Devils relative to the preseason polls. But actually, that is not the case this year.
Duke is 5th in BPI and 4th in the AP poll. The model has found that elite recruits don't predict success as much as a high percentage of returning minutes of quality players. Duke brings in three ESPN 100 five-star recruits but this year has the luxury of returning Tre Jones. Duke also brings back role players Javin DeLaurier, Alex O'Connell, and Jack White, who each had over 500 minutes last season.
With more of a mix between experience and highly touted recruits this season, expect Duke to be fighting for a No. 1 seed in March (25% chance per BPI) and making another run at a national title.
Conference outlook: Big Ten and ACC tied in title odds -- exactly
There's a 22.69% chance that the national championship winner hails from the Big Ten. And also a 22.69% chance it hails from the ACC. Weird.
That's probably better news for the Big Ten than the ACC, given the latter's reputation as the top basketball conference.
BPI is high on the Big Ten though, and it actually rates slightly ahead of the ACC in average BPI rating (+6.8 vs. +6.7) this preseason. Both trail the Big 12 in this metric, though the Big 12 typically tops this list because it has fewer teams and lacks cellar-dwellers like Northwestern or Wake Forest that drag down the conference average -- whether those teams ought to be involved in a conversation about conference strength is debatable. The Big Ten also leads the way in terms of most top-25 teams, with 7, besting the ACC (5).
We've already covered Michigan State, but BPI also features Wisconsin at No. 6 (more on that in a bit), Purdue at No. 11 and Maryland, Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State between 19-25.
In terms of average BPI, after the Big 12, Big Ten and ACC comes the Big East, SEC, AAC and Pac-12, in that order. But all is not lost for the Pac-12, despite a low average rating. Last season we noted that Arizona State was the highest-ranked team from the conference in the preseason ... at No. 45 overall. But this season the conference boasts a top-10 squad and a title contender in Oregon, which has the best chance to win at least a share of its conference title among major conference teams. The Ducks return a top contributor in point guard Payton Pritchard but have also added two significant recruits in C.J. Walkerand N'Faly Dante -- though Dante is currently ineligible and that is not accounted for by BPI.
While the Ducks give the Pac-12 hope, it's not all great news for the conference: it's still projected to put fewer teams into the NCAA tournament (2.7) than the Atlantic-10 (3.1), for example.
There's a 22.69% chance that the national championship winner hails from the Big Ten. And also a 22.69% chance it hails from the ACC. Weird.
That's probably better news for the Big Ten than the ACC, given the latter's reputation as the top basketball conference.
BPI is high on the Big Ten though, and it actually rates slightly ahead of the ACC in average BPI rating (+6.8 vs. +6.7) this preseason. Both trail the Big 12 in this metric, though the Big 12 typically tops this list because it has fewer teams and lacks cellar-dwellers like Northwestern or Wake Forest that drag down the conference average -- whether those teams ought to be involved in a conversation about conference strength is debatable. The Big Ten also leads the way in terms of most top-25 teams, with 7, besting the ACC (5).
We've already covered Michigan State, but BPI also features Wisconsin at No. 6 (more on that in a bit), Purdue at No. 11 and Maryland, Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State between 19-25.
In terms of average BPI, after the Big 12, Big Ten and ACC comes the Big East, SEC, AAC and Pac-12, in that order. But all is not lost for the Pac-12, despite a low average rating. Last season we noted that Arizona State was the highest-ranked team from the conference in the preseason ... at No. 45 overall. But this season the conference boasts a top-10 squad and a title contender in Oregon, which has the best chance to win at least a share of its conference title among major conference teams. The Ducks return a top contributor in point guard Payton Pritchard but have also added two significant recruits in C.J. Walkerand N'Faly Dante -- though Dante is currently ineligible and that is not accounted for by BPI.
While the Ducks give the Pac-12 hope, it's not all great news for the conference: it's still projected to put fewer teams into the NCAA tournament (2.7) than the Atlantic-10 (3.1), for example.
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