Defense

[jwill133]

I am thrilled we won up at the Carrier Dome Saturday night, I'll take a W there any way we can get it.

The down side...our defense is trending in the wrong direction. We have fallen down to #15 in Ken Pom adjusted D. We were #2 up until the Clemson/Louisville games. Just about every national champion in the last 20 years (Ken-Pom era) has had a top 15 defense. The 2015 team for example, was a pretty bad defensive team (always hung around #60-#80) until February hit, we insert Matt Jones as a starter, moved Winslow to the 4, and our defense took off. We ended the year with the #11 defense.

There is still tons of games left, so I'm not saying this is an emergency or anything, however it does seem like were starting to get figured out. Our balls-to-the-walls pressure man-to-man defense can break a bad to mediocre ACC team, however some of the elite teams (Louisville for example) have the talent and dribbling ability to break us down and then it's a lay-up line.

Getting Wendell back should help, he was fantastic against Syracuse. I still think it's something worth monitoring moving forward. Syracuse dropped 88 against us. Even Pittsburgh, who is a bad offensive team, scored 67 against us and it should have been more, just was a weird game towards the end.

 

[Liftee]

I think Syracuse was an outlying due to all the foul shots given to both teams. It made the game longer and increased the score. With different refs, the score may have been in the '70s or at most low '80s.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

We are still heads-and-shoulders above where we were in 2015 at this time of year. Not to mention, '16, '17, and '18. I think we have all the pieces defensively to make a strong final four run.

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

I think Syracuse was an outlying due to all the foul shots given to both teams. It made the game longer and increased the score. With different refs, the score may have been in the '70s or at most low '80s.

agree..they took and made a lot of fts...........also nailed some deep long threes

 

[HuffyJB]

I would be lying if I said I wasn't at least a little bit concerned. The style that K employs can be difficult in today's game, with the level of athleticism and versatility, and teams loaded with guys who came up through modern AAU ball that emphasizes guys attacking individual match-ups. I know a lot of the reason, as far as the overall approach he wants to employ - he has said multiple times this year that the general aggressiveness on defense leads to aggressiveness on offense and vice versa. That is true of any system - UVA's defensive approach wouldn't work near as well if they didn't also have an offensive philosophy that was committed to the overall nature and tempo they want out of each game. So, it can be tough at times for Duke to guard that aggressively, but it breeds the overall style that K wants, so I think the good will outweigh the bad.

 

[dachampishere2]

We just have to realize we can’t play that pressure defense against everyone. Sometimes you have to dial it back and make people shoot over the top of you. I think we should press to start every game as well

 

[lyonhawk]

Getting Wendell back will help us out quite bit on that end. I don't think it's a coincidence our decline on D happened while he was out of the lineup.

 

[Hurley22]

It used to drive me crazy that we have continued to guard 30 ft from the basket in todays game. Guys are just too good to contain like that all game. What it does seem to do is run teams off the 3 point line. Syracuse was 6-26 and their field goal percentage was around 38% . If you see those numbers you think we probably had a good defensive game, but like someone else said, they scored almost 30 points from the free throw line....that's insane.

 

[jwill133]

It used to drive me crazy that we have continued to guard 30 ft from the basket in todays game. Guys are just too good to contain like that all game. What it does seem to do is run teams off the 3 point line. Syracuse was 6-26 and their field goal percentage was around 38% . If you see those numbers you think we probably had a good defensive game, but like someone else said, they scored almost 30 points from the free throw line....that's insane.

This is about where I am too. Our pressure defense worked great against BC and Miami for example, you could tell within the first 5 minutes of the game they couldn't handle the pressure and the game was gonna be a blowout.

It is the elite teams with strong guards that I don't like the pressure defense against. Louisville shredded us. I worry about FSU doing the same.
With that said, our defensive pressure is the only reason we beat Kansas, who everyone would consider elite with great guards, so who knows.

Syracuse scoring 88 on us was odd, way too many free-throws at the end and Boeheim kept fouling to continue the game. But even if they scored in the 70's against us, that's not great for Duke. Were trending in the wrong direction.

 

[bullettoothtony]

^ Agreed. I don't trust our pressure defense either, especially as we get deeper in the tournament.

The only reason I'm holding out a little hope is because of our depth, as long as we keep using it. Hard for 7 guys to play that pressure and not get worn out, particularly in the 2nd half, and particularly in the cauldron of NCAA Tournament play.

Take a look at what our defense has given up in the 2nd half of our losses in the NCAA Tournament since '09.

2009, Villanova, 51 points
2011, Arizona, 55 points
2012, Lehigh, 47 points
2013 Louisville, 50 points
2014 Mercer, 44 points
2016 Oregon 46 points
2017 South Carolina, 65 points
2018 Kansas (remember, zone), 39 points

Bad luck? Bad strategy exacerbated by a thin bench? You tell me.

Again, if we use our depth I'm a little more hopeful but I still don't fully trust the strategy against everyone.

 

[HuffyJB]

^ Agreed. I don't trust our pressure defense either, especially as we get deeper in the tournament.

The only reason I'm holding out a little hope is because of our depth, as long as we keep using it. Hard for 7 guys to play that pressure and not get worn out, particularly in the 2nd half, and particularly in the cauldron of NCAA Tournament play.

Take a look at what our defense has given up in the 2nd half of our losses in the NCAA Tournament since '09.

2009, Villanova, 51 points
2011, Arizona, 55 points
2012, Lehigh, 47 points
2013 Louisville, 50 points
2014 Mercer, 44 points
2016 Oregon 46 points
2017 South Carolina, 65 points
2018 Kansas (remember, zone), 39 points

Bad luck? Bad strategy exacerbated by a thin bench? You tell me.

Again, if we use our depth I'm a little more hopeful but I still don't fully trust the strategy against everyone.

Wow, I've never seen those numbers all together like that - that jumps off the page a little bit!

 

[bullettoothtony]

^ They do, Huffy. And full disclosure, the first time I saw that list and info was on this board. My apologies for not remembering the poster and appropriately crediting him or her.

I had to go back and look it up but it's pretty revealing IMO.