It should not be a surprise to anyone he is landing multiple 5 star recruits. The landscape of college basketball has changed dramatically. Kids saw what he was able to accomplish with Okafor, Jones, Winslow, and Allen and now kids want to team up with one another to emulate the success the Class of 2014 achieved as Freshmen prior to jumping to the NBA. Our 2015 Class was not as strong with Ingram being the only OAD. The 2016 Class had to have many things go wrong during the regular season, Coach K’s back issues, Allen imploding, alll the injuries suffered between Tatum, Jackson, Giles, Bolden, to hinder them developing the strong chemistry and roles needed to advance far in the post season sans the ACC Tournament before running into a hot South Carolina Team. The 2017 Class was a last second shot attempt by Allen away from getting to the Final 4. Yeah it would be great to keep these guys longer than a year, but as Jwill and others on this board have mentioned, being Senior Laden does not automatically mean you have a better chance to win the National Championship in contrast to a team full of Freshmen and Sophomores. Duke had multiple experienced teams in the 2000s who we expected to make a run at the Final 4 and they didn’t 2005, 2006, and 2009 all are years I can think of. Also, you can’t fault the OAD kids for leaving, they are making a career decision. If you had an opportunity to leave your job for a job with better pay, benefits, and more vacation time, wouldn’t you do it? I know I would. I know this is a long post, but I am with jwill on this, Coach K recruits the best players who give Duke the best chances to be successful every time. He always has and he always will.
Coach K Has Always Recruited The Best Players
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No problem going after great talent, just don't like reloading the last couple seasons, with little returning experience. That's the real concern for many.
We have no idea how much our bench will contribute, and for that matter, how good our freshmen will be. Did anyone have any idea Bagley, before the season started, would be as bad as he was defensively, or that Duval would be so inconsistent, or that our one guy with any experience would struggle with his shot for much of the season?
I don't like putting most of Duke's hopes for a title on 4 freshmen, no matter how good we think they'll be. They are just as unproven as our bench is. And to me, that's a cause for concern.
We have no idea how much our bench will contribute, and for that matter, how good our freshmen will be. Did anyone have any idea Bagley, before the season started, would be as bad as he was defensively, or that Duval would be so inconsistent, or that our one guy with any experience would struggle with his shot for much of the season?
I don't like putting most of Duke's hopes for a title on 4 freshmen, no matter how good we think they'll be. They are just as unproven as our bench is. And to me, that's a cause for concern.
Experience doesn't automatically make you a title contender. But it gives you a better chance than throwing 5 freshmen out there.
K has always recruited the best players, but he also recruited the best players for his system. He has adapted to the current landscape, but in doing so he has also sacrificed a lot of the standards that has won him so many games.
Saying that he has always recruited the best players isn't telling the whole story. Duke has one title with multiple OADs and that team had Jefferson, Jones and Cook as major contributors. We have a sweet sixteen, a second round exit and a solid elite eight team since. Not to mention Kentucky. Their one title came from a team that had a top 3 freshman all time and upperclassmen who played important roles.
It is for selfish reasons, because I want Duke to contend for titles every year. But I hope we recruit a solid core of 3-4 year players with one or two elite OADs to compliment them going forward.
K has always recruited the best players, but he also recruited the best players for his system. He has adapted to the current landscape, but in doing so he has also sacrificed a lot of the standards that has won him so many games.
Saying that he has always recruited the best players isn't telling the whole story. Duke has one title with multiple OADs and that team had Jefferson, Jones and Cook as major contributors. We have a sweet sixteen, a second round exit and a solid elite eight team since. Not to mention Kentucky. Their one title came from a team that had a top 3 freshman all time and upperclassmen who played important roles.
It is for selfish reasons, because I want Duke to contend for titles every year. But I hope we recruit a solid core of 3-4 year players with one or two elite OADs to compliment them going forward.
He’s always recruited the best talent, yes. However, it’s never come this easy. A lot of kids today are recruiting Coach K, too. I think many underestimated the impact coaching Team USA was going to have. It’s been a feather in his cap.
Winning ships is really, really hard. It involves a ton of luck too.
Like: Getting a 5 star point guard who was living up to the hype stay 3 years (Brunson). Like keeping a 5 star big an extra year because he got hurt the year before (Spelman). Like getting a potential one and done to stay another year (Bridges). Like getting an unknown to red shirt and turn into a stud 2 years later ( DiVencenzo). Someone please tell me the teams that have had a 6th man go for 30 in a title game? See what I mean. Everyone wants to make it like Jay Wright scripted this year's team. Like he drew it up and planned it all. No. What you have is a really good coach with a good overall plan who also had a lot of things break his way. Good for him. If K had that kind of luck last year, we would be talking about a legendary team instead of one of disappointment. After all, luck goes both ways.
Like: Getting a 5 star point guard who was living up to the hype stay 3 years (Brunson). Like keeping a 5 star big an extra year because he got hurt the year before (Spelman). Like getting a potential one and done to stay another year (Bridges). Like getting an unknown to red shirt and turn into a stud 2 years later ( DiVencenzo). Someone please tell me the teams that have had a 6th man go for 30 in a title game? See what I mean. Everyone wants to make it like Jay Wright scripted this year's team. Like he drew it up and planned it all. No. What you have is a really good coach with a good overall plan who also had a lot of things break his way. Good for him. If K had that kind of luck last year, we would be talking about a legendary team instead of one of disappointment. After all, luck goes both ways.
I agree with the above post that Coach K recruited the best players for his system in the past. Of course I'm happy with a Bagley or Carter but we had 7 freshman this past year. 4 went pro, 2 of whom may be drafted in the second round, and one has already transferred. And people are wondering whether the remaining two are going to transfer. It is not crazy or disloyal to question this. We almost need top rated recruiting classes to continue at this rate.
In the last 20 seasons, Duke has lost more than seven games only five times. Four of those seasons were in the past five years.
Personally I am holding off final opinion on 3+ OADs per season, til after the 2019 season
If we again struggle on Defense and are mainly playing a Zone then that will negatively reflect.
When I reflect back on the season it is not NCAA Title or Bust, so finishing 4 games outta 1st and not reaching the ACC Tourney Final - while also not advancing to the Final Four; to me is not worth hindering our development for the next season. We will remember the Elite 8 lose to Kansas because of how close/well played of a match it was not because KU was some unbeatable force that we must tip our hat to. I would give the boys somewhat of a break if UVA went deep in the Tournament and KU was the eventual Champion.
2017 - lost to Final Four South Carolina
2016 - lost to Elite 8 Oregon
2014 - lost to 2nd Round Mercer
2013 - lost to NC Louisiville
2012 - lost to 2nd Round LeHigh
No Regular Season title and one single ACC Tourney crown in 2017 paired with those loses above is not all that impressive to me
If we again struggle on Defense and are mainly playing a Zone then that will negatively reflect.
Very interesting
When I reflect back on the season it is not NCAA Title or Bust, so finishing 4 games outta 1st and not reaching the ACC Tourney Final - while also not advancing to the Final Four; to me is not worth hindering our development for the next season. We will remember the Elite 8 lose to Kansas because of how close/well played of a match it was not because KU was some unbeatable force that we must tip our hat to. I would give the boys somewhat of a break if UVA went deep in the Tournament and KU was the eventual Champion.
2017 - lost to Final Four South Carolina
2016 - lost to Elite 8 Oregon
2014 - lost to 2nd Round Mercer
2013 - lost to NC Louisiville
2012 - lost to 2nd Round LeHigh
No Regular Season title and one single ACC Tourney crown in 2017 paired with those loses above is not all that impressive to me
You would think we didn’t just win a title with one and dones leading the team in 2015. Y’all are just complaining because we lost. Y’all don’t care who we win the titles with. As long as we win. So stop acting like this one and done thing is a huge deal
Again. We do not win the title in 2015 without Cook, Jefferson or Matt Jones. We also don't win the title without Tyus, Justise and Jahlil. That title does nothing but prove that you have to have experienced leaders to go along with the OAD talent to finish the job. Same with the 2012 Kentucky team.
Won't speak for others, but I am not just complaining because we lost. I am complaining because we are using a losing formula. I predict that we will never win a title starting 4 or 5 freshmen. If that happens, it will be the most delicious crow I will have ever eaten.
Hopefully Bolden, DeLaurier, White and AOC and maybe that transfer can fill that leadership role.
Here you go again. I like the one and done player, just don't want 4 starting.
Blend them, I repeat blend them, with experience. There's your best formula. I like ice cream too, but don't want to sit there and eat a gallon of it.
I agree with Letsgo on this one, I will gladly eat crow if we win the title with more than 3 one and done players.
This is interesting because I was going to ask in the Trent thread more or less the same topic that’s going on right now.
I’ve been on record for the past 3-4 years that Roy has needed to switch it up a bit on the recruiting trail. Talent wins games, and he hasn’t been getting enough of it. Which is why I think he’s done one hell of a job all things considering.
Roy also is on record saying he’s tried to recruit the exact same players Kentucky and Duke have been getting, they’re just not deciding to come to Carolina. And if the situation were reversed, we’d be pretty pumped about landing those kinds of studs.
Basically what I’m trying to get across here, is how do you guys as a fan base feel about constantly reloading all the time? Besides Allen, all your starters weren’t staying longer than a year. I can remember despising guys like Redick, battier, and others because they were so good and encapsulated what K wanted in his program. Now, besides Allen, almost none of them stay around long enough to be a part of that back and forth hate in the rivalry.
We just sent off JB and Theo, and in the four years they were here, it was a blessing to watch and see them grow. To me, guys like that are what made and still make the rivalry special.
I’m rambling a bit, but it’s just interesting how things evolve over time.
I’ve been on record for the past 3-4 years that Roy has needed to switch it up a bit on the recruiting trail. Talent wins games, and he hasn’t been getting enough of it. Which is why I think he’s done one hell of a job all things considering.
Roy also is on record saying he’s tried to recruit the exact same players Kentucky and Duke have been getting, they’re just not deciding to come to Carolina. And if the situation were reversed, we’d be pretty pumped about landing those kinds of studs.
Basically what I’m trying to get across here, is how do you guys as a fan base feel about constantly reloading all the time? Besides Allen, all your starters weren’t staying longer than a year. I can remember despising guys like Redick, battier, and others because they were so good and encapsulated what K wanted in his program. Now, besides Allen, almost none of them stay around long enough to be a part of that back and forth hate in the rivalry.
We just sent off JB and Theo, and in the four years they were here, it was a blessing to watch and see them grow. To me, guys like that are what made and still make the rivalry special.
I’m rambling a bit, but it’s just interesting how things evolve over time.
You know why that probably won't happen again while there's a OAD rule? Because we won't be able to keep the players that aren't goof enough to play as freshmen because we recruit more 5 stars every year. At this point it's going to be hard to change philosophy without pretty much tanking a few years. We all know majority of Duke fans would lose their minds if we don't have a good team or God-forbid make the NIT
JB and Theo were both great college players, they were never in a situation where they had to make a decision to leave early for the NBA. Those 2 are 2nd rounders at best at the end of their Junior Years, Theo May have played his way into a late 1st rounder this season.
That’s true, but both were highly ranked recruits. Theo definitely has the versatility of an nba player, just not the shooting touch. Though they both tested the waters last year, they weren’t serious threats to leave.
Opinion is pretty split. I think there are certain alliances that seem to sway opinion I.E. fans from Pre 90s seem to miss the old strategy - and - fans of the NBA seem to prefer the current one (they continue enjoying players such as Tatum in the Pros).
IMO we haven't been winning enough ACC crowns to balance out the decline in connections to the players. Redick failed to win a Title unlike Tyus Jones but JJ also gave me as a fan 5x ACC Crowns. Ultimately only a bit more time will tell whether the strategy change was worth it or not. IMO if we only end up winning that 2015 Title with very little ACC crowns to match it - I dunno how successful it all was
The interesting part to me is beyond our rivals and other Blue Blood programs, Duke seems to be more liked by the mainstream today than in the past with the JJ's, Scheyers, Singler's etc. Mainstream fans ultimately respect top end talent.
I hope before the rule goes away, that we have a class with 10 OAD's.
Let UNC keep the boring ol' Luke Mayes of the world.
Let UNC keep the boring ol' Luke Mayes of the world.
This makes very little sense. It doesn't relate to anything that I have said so I am not sure why you said this in response to my comment.
I think for the most part both team's fans are at a point where we want a little more of the other to find that perfect balance.
UNC is relying too much on lower ranked upperclassmen who have extremely limited ceilings and Duke too much on the OAD's.
Joey Baker is a good start in 2019 for that balance for you guys. I think he'll have a Kyle Singler-esque career at Duke.
UNC is relying too much on lower ranked upperclassmen who have extremely limited ceilings and Duke too much on the OAD's.
Joey Baker is a good start in 2019 for that balance for you guys. I think he'll have a Kyle Singler-esque career at Duke.
Odds are against us winning a championship every year whether we have OAD players or 3 and 4 year players. Because of that, I'd much rather have players that I can watch grow up as opposed to players that just put on a Duke uniform for a few months. Aside from the 3 freshmen on the 2015 team and maybe Kyrie, I just don't have much of a desire to follow the OAD careers because I barely even got to know them.
All I'm asking for is a little balance. I agree that a lot of it is luck and we've had some bad luck with guys transferring. But Coach K did play more guys this year, which hopefully will develop guys like Javin, Bolden, White, AOC, etc. and keeps them from pursuing opportunities elsewhere. That way we get the best of both worlds, we get the Zions and RJs and develop depth. But it's a delicate balance. I think the frustration is not with lottery guys leaving, but with 2nd round picks leaving as well, which seems to be happening more to us than anyone else. If Bolden comes back and the other guys stay I'll be okay.
How is Luke Maye boring? The guy just made 1st team All-ACC. The year before, he hits the game winning shot in the Elite 8. And now he’s going to be entering his senior season at UNC. I’m sure most Duke fans would love a guy like that if he was on our team.
Has a second-round pick ever left besides Josh McRoberts?
I do think there’s a little balance that’s been created. It just didn’t happen overnight like most would like to see. Are people upset because that balance doesn’t project to starters for next season?
I do think there’s a little balance that’s been created. It just didn’t happen overnight like most would like to see. Are people upset because that balance doesn’t project to starters for next season?
All of us would. Problem is, most of the one’s who love him now were experts 15 months ago who thought he was useless. They jump to conclusions and overreact. Sounds pretty familiar to this board in general now, doesn’t it?
Frank Jackson, though he was the 31st pick.
Carlos Boozer left after his junior year and was the 35th pick, I'm assuming he graduated in those three years though??
Frank Jackson, and possibly our freshman backcourt this year. I stated in my post that we were working towards creating more balance as more people played last year. I was happy with more guys playing this year.
It's all good. I just get depressed when multiple guys leave. But I wish them well and certainly don't blame them.
You don't think Luke is good? He may not impress you since you love the one and done NBA guys BUT as a college fan Luke is what you want. And overachiever in every single aspect I made fun of him a lot but his last year and a half I'd take him easily he's been impressive with little talent
I’m talking about the 2015 team makeup. Where we had 2 players that were 2 year starters coming into the season
I won't admit Michael Jordan is good, it's the whole UNC jersey thing, think I'm gonna admit Luke freaking Maye is good?
The main point I'm actually making..in a single elimination tournament, I don't think experience plays a factor at all in determining the outcome of a game. Considering these guys get to play a full 30+ games before the tournament. And since only 2 teams a year play with mostly OAD's, of course the odds are favoring that an "experienced" team is gonna win the thing. Even though 2 of the last 7 seasons, OAD teams have won the title.
Our most experienced player laid an egg in our biggest game of the year, can anyone explain that one?
Will an experienced team have a better chance of winning a tough January road game in a hostile environment? Probably. Even though that 2015 team won some of the biggest road games I've ever watched Duke play in. Not many road wins I can remember would top the wins @ Wisconsin and @ Virginia.
But will an experienced team have an edge in March? Nah.
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Which is some of the case I would make....players that stay a year ( 5 months) and leave but dont become NBA stars get forgotten or are less memorable due to the shortened Duke career. Its increasingly difficult to remember who was on our team even a year ago as we turn over so many every year. We remember 2015 roster because of the win...2016? I could name Allen and struggle after that..
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There seem to be two schools of thought on the board...those that are ok with the OAD heavy approach and try to catch lightning in a bottle...and those who favor the longer term building of a squad with one or two top talented players. We cant do both since the OAD demands playing time over experience so the divide will be there until the OAD is fixed ( if it ever happens) Neither is wrong just different approaches.
Kentucky has spiraled downhill lately in their OAD plan. They are toast unless the guys stay a couple years. Duke will probably get the same thing happen to them. 4* guys not getting enough playing time to develop, getting recruited over, transfer out, and not bringing in enough freshman to get the job done. Even getting the top guys at each position every year is not enough to ensure a Final 4. The plan works to get a talented team, but comes up just short in Championships most of the time. Fans know if a couple guys stayed each year that will be in NBA eventually anyway, they would surely get a Final 4 most years. That's what is bad.
