If there is to be a stretch run, it obviously needs to start tonight. This is a very winnable game. Despite a good overall record and high ranking, UVA doesn’t have any especially impressive wins unless you count Clemson, and they have been pounded by 3 good teams, losing to Virginia Tech by 14, Florida State by 21 and Gonzaga by 23. For all of Duke’s problems this year, they have lost one game (Illinois) by more than 7 points. Virginia isn’t very deep, gets very little scoring from their guards, and rarely shoots free throws—Duke doesn’t shoot many and Virginia shoots 3 per game fewer than Duke. Their offense is driven by three point shooting from their forwards, and Duke will need to contest on the perimeter. Williams-Huff could be an interesting matchup. Huff has a huge edge in experience and will draw Williams way from the basket, but I expect Duke to try to draw some fouls on Huff, who can be foul-prone, by going inside to Williams. Brakefield should also get plenty of minutes matching up with any or all of their 3 forwards. Duke is currently ranked #60 in the NET rankings. A win tonight could move them up significantly and make the remaining games important.
