Ingram leading scorer?

[DukeDenver]

I noticed Ingram is a projected lottery pick in 2016 (maybe based somewhat on Winslow's success?). It got me thinking about where the buckets will come from. I don't think our junior and seniors will put up major points night in and out.

Grayson looked great when his number was called, but he had the benefit of 4 great scorers to take the focus off him, all of whom are now gone. He also has never had to play heavy minutes and grind. So we shall see if he can be consistent as a starter.

Thornton and Jeter should provide good scoring. Thornton's 3 ball will determine our offensive ceiling IMO. Chase seems to be very smooth out there. Either guy could end up being decent scorers. My money is on Ingram leading us with 17ppg, with Grayson having big nights here and there, averaging 15 or so.

 

[Showenuff]

Scoring this season won't come from one or two scorers constantly, it's going to be spread around a lot. But Grayson I feel will score more on a constant level rather than spurts. I think he is a momentum player and many times just before he could get rolling he was heading back to the bench. As he is allowed to play more minutes, we're going to see his full arsenal. The kid has a WELL rounded game. He can shoot the 3 big time, his penetration to the basket is both deliberate and confident and he's damn good at the stripe.

 

[timo0402]

Scoring this season won't come from one or two scorers constantly, it's going to be spread around a lot. But Grayson I feel will score more on a constant level rather than spurts. I think he is a momentum player and many times just before he could get rolling he was heading back to the bench. As he is allowed to play more minutes, we're going to see his full arsenal. The kid has a WELL rounded game. He can shoot the 3 big time, his penetration to the basket is both deliberate and confident and he's damn good at the stripe.

It also has to do with overall confidence and trust in your own game. After the final 4 performances he now knows he can be "the man" and wont be shy. I agree i think he'll be a consistent scorer, same with Luke. However i do think Ingram will most likely be right up there if not leading then right behind the leader in ppg.

Ingram's projections have zero to do with Winslow. Completely different player.

 

[dbav]

Show summed it up for me. I think Ingram could very well be the leading scorer, but I also think Grayson is going to have something to say about it. Overall, if the scoring is spread out it will make that race close and fun to watch.

 

[Jake1985]

Scoring is an interested discussion. I agree that Duke will have to generate points in different ways.
1- points off of defense. Duke has the players to pressure the ball and has the length to disrupt passing lanes. Duke's size in the paint and ability to rebound all should translate into getting turn overs to get buckets in transition and eliminate second chance opportunities which would allow Duke to run it's offensive sets. DT is very athletic and quick thus he will provided solid man-on-man defending on opposing PG's. Ingram should be able to effectively deny wings. Duke's interior will have 4 guys able to do enough to rebound and outlet and run the floor.
2- 3 point shooting efficiency. Grayson, Luke, Matt, Ingram and even DT will all shoot the 3 at a pretty good percentage. Duke will not have to live and die by the 3 because they do have scorers not only shooters on the roster. A late game line up of DT, Grayson, Luke/Matt, Ingram and Jeter will be tough to shut down.
3- sum of points in the paint. With 4 bigs that will most likely platoon/rotate throughout the game, Duke should be able to generate points in the paint. Add Ingram getting into the lane and the dribble drive that DT, Luke and Grayson can add it's possible that Duke will get enough points in the paint to keep the defenders away from just extending to close out and deny shooters time to get open looks.

I'm not sure who will lead the team in scoring but I do think Duke will create points to be a decent scoring team.

 

[pisgah101]

Show hit my opinion perfectly

 

[timo0402]

The fun question i think right now is who is the starting line up in our first game (exhibition or regular season). There are just so many different ways we can go that i'm not sure exactly how K will handle it. It's the off-season so let's have some fun here. I'm going to say starting the season we'll see the starting line up of:

DT
GA
BI
AJ
MP

Depending on how the year plays out you could really see five or six different starting lineups because this team has so much flexibility. Think the only real constant will be DT, he's the only PG, so it locks him in (and he's really good).

I think bringing Matty and Luke in off the bench provides some toughness, strong perimeter D (Matty) and scoring punch (Luke). I think you'll see the 4-5 rotate like we did in 2010- CJ and SO come in for AJ & MP.

What do we think?

 

[DukeDenver]

I like that timo, with maybe Chase on for Plumlee to give a bit more balance.

I think Thornton and Amile are locks to start. Ingram is just too versatile to sit in favor of Matt. Instead of starters, we should look at this like who is in the "rotation." We're going to see a bunch from the first three off the bench, with small doses of Obi, for an 8-9 man revolving unit. We may see a 7 man rotation if some of the newbies struggle unexpectedly. Tyus/Winslow/Jah likely has given me unrealistic expectations of freshmen players. What an awesome class that was.

 

[DiehardDukeFan4Life]

As far as who will be leading scorer. It's hard to say because we'll have several players that can score for us on a nightly basis. As far as rotation, I think we'll probably see a regular 8 or 9 man rotation that might turn into a 7 man rotation with the 2 players taken out of the regular rotation still seeing decent minutes and I think Vrankovic and Robinson will probably see a few spotty minutes in situations when we're up by a lot like we usually see from our walk-on players.

 

[dukefan5151]

Ingram, Allen, & Thornton will be our highest scorers. The team will start off better defensively than last years so will not need to score as much.

Ingram & Thornton are locks to start and both will be handling the ball (Coach K talked to Ingram about having him as a point forward).

 

[LTDukeFan]

Scoring this season won't come from one or two scorers constantly, it's going to be spread around a lot. But Grayson I feel will score more on a constant level rather than spurts. I think he is a momentum player and many times just before he could get rolling he was heading back to the bench. As he is allowed to play more minutes, we're going to see his full arsenal. The kid has a WELL rounded game. He can shoot the 3 big time, his penetration to the basket is both deliberate and confident and he's damn good at the stripe.

The biggest thing that concerns me with Grayson is injury. So much on his game is based on hard cuts to the basket. If he stays healthy, then I would think he is the #1 or #2 scorer on the team. If people foul him while he is driving, then that's an easy 2 points.

 

[Dattier]

Scoring this season won't come from one or two scorers constantly, it's going to be spread around a lot. But Grayson I feel will score more on a constant level rather than spurts. I think he is a momentum player and many times just before he could get rolling he was heading back to the bench. As he is allowed to play more minutes, we're going to see his full arsenal. The kid has a WELL rounded game. He can shoot the 3 big time, his penetration to the basket is both deliberate and confident and he's damn good at the stripe.

I see him as a more explosive, score-in-spurts type player, based on his "where did that come from?!?!" performances on Sr Night and in the Championship Game, and I think we all expect his overall average to take a huge, triple or quadruple leap forward, but it may be a better sign for the team overall if he does become that steady, consistent, spread out type scorer, 3-5 points per 10 minute increments. Games like he had vs Wisky are the stuff of legends, but a steadier, more dependable and consistent performance is the stuff of legacy.

Scoring, schmoring, though, the key is going to be Thornton's distribution. This won't be our JJ or Jabari dependent style of '05, '06, or '14; this will be much closer to '04 or '15 where our PG was often 3rd or 4th fiddle as far as glamour goes, but was the straw that drank the other team's milkshake pretty frequently, too.

 

[Jake1985]

It wouldn't be surprising if...
Jeter becomes a starter at the 4 )or the 5). He has a decent offensive game with solid post moves, a nifty baby hook and improving footwork. He may lack girth or strength but at the 4 he would be ideal.
Obi improved significantly and is inserted into line up. He is more of a below the rim type player whereas Matshall is a dunking machine but Obi is very strong and eats up rebounds on both ends. He has totally reshaped his body since being at Duke.
Luke will have break out type games. He is a better athlete, more explosive and a better ball handler than Jon S was and Luke has this game on toughness much like Grayson stemming from Luke's days playing football.

 

[Showenuff]

Keep in mind as well overall team scoring may rise for the simple fact we're going to get a few more shots up this season thanks to the new shot clock format.

 

[DukeDenver]

Good point Show. Not to mention no charges near the cup (Grayson will like that).

 

[DukeBlueAtt]

Don't discount Amile's and Marshall's roles this year. Both guys have the experience and had some big moments. Without those guys we probably would not have won the NC. Both made some big plays and can be huge on D. Avoiding "freshman" mistakes and coming up with a big stop or rebound can make the difference when the game is on the line. Hopefully both can improve on their free throw %.

 

[Jake1985]

I agree that experience and leadership can go a long way in team success but there is no substitution for talent. Grayson, DT, Luke, Chase, Ingram (and Obi) all are very talented. Each offers something different and unique which make anticipation about this year's team just exciting.
Last season, the three Frosh were talented and with Cook's leadership and his personal inprovements were the foundation for success. This season there are more upperclassmen leadership and these Frosh are good in different ways. DT is extremely quick and athletic and will shine defensively but he won't have Tyus' calmness about him especially early on. Ingram isn't as physically strong nor does he have the defensive reputation Winslow had but Ingram is a more prolific scorer and his length will be his defensive asset. Chase's game doesn't translate anywhere near Ok's offensively but Chase his a better shot blocker and defender and he does have that sweet baby hook. Luke is a better ball handler than Grayson and longer and I'm guessing Luke will experience some of the same growing pains as Grayson but I'm sure K and the staff have learned from Grayson's Frosh year so I expect to see Luke on the floor much more.

 

[1156jack]

" I'm sure K and the staff have learned from Grayson's Frosh year so I expect to see Luke on the floor much more"

Not only do I expect Kennard to be in the floor quite a bit, I expect him to be the leading scorer, around 19 ppg.

 

[skysdad]

This team just like last years team has several guys that can score 20 plus on any given night. Last year it was T. Jones,M. Jones, Q. Cook. J. Okafor, J. Winslow and G. Allen. This year G. Allen, M. Jones, C. Jeter, D. Thornton, L. Kennard and B. Ingram can put up 20 plus on any given night. I expect Marshall, Amile and the unknown skills of Obi will make an impact. Lots of weapons. OFC

 

[timo0402]

" I'm sure K and the staff have learned from Grayson's Frosh year so I expect to see Luke on the floor much more"

Not only do I expect Kennard to be in the floor quite a bit, I expect him to be the leading scorer, around 19 ppg.

I assume you're joking, but i can't be sure. Also, didn't see who that quote was from, didnt scroll through enough, but that quote somehow is suggesting that the staff didn't know who they had all year? They openly said the exact opposite, but i digress.

I'd expect ingram to lead our team in scoring this year- he can fill it up and will start from day 1- Luke will not. I'd expect Grayson to be right behind him, and probably DT behind him.

 

[Jake1985]

It's not that the staff didn't know who they had all year but when Sheed was no longer on the team player roles and opportunities changed thus Grayson was given more. Capel said that both opportunity and confidence contributed to Grayson's performances. So again, it's no that they didn't know what they had in Grayson but more of they have him the opportunity to be Grayson.

I'm not sure who will be the leading scorer but I do agree that a number of guys can lead the team in scoring in any given game.

 

[Dattier]

K is not going to give Luke PT out of some retroactive sense that Grayson might have had more games like the title game had he played more, or that Grayson blossomed b/c of it. Luke will earn his PT in practice just like every other player. That will be his opportunity.

Since JJ graduated, Duke has had two players average 19 or more ppg: Jabari Parker and Nolan Smith in '14 and '11 respectively. They were both 1st team AAs. Even w/ a shorter shot clock, I think it is doubtful that a freshman Luke Kennard will sniff 19 per game.

 

[Showenuff]

agreed.

 

[Jake1985]

Agree to all that was said. Just recalling that Capel said that Sheed gone Grayson blossomed because of the opportunity to play in a role. That's all I was referring to. If Luke plays or doesn't is on him and earning things but I do think there is opportunity to get some role playing some minutes at the 1-3 just based on the players. DT, Grayson, Ingram and Matt might get most minutes but that 5th spot surely will have a role.
Luke is a better ball handler than Matt or Grayson and he does have the ability to facilitate an offense. We might even see Ingram facilitate the offense too. Luke can be compared and contrasted to Grayson and Matt and in some areas he's just better but that doesn't entitle him but it should give him opportunity.

 

[timo0402]

Agree to all that was said. Just recalling that Capel said that Sheed gone Grayson blossomed because of the opportunity to play in a role. That's all I was referring to. If Luke plays or doesn't is on him and earning things but I do think there is opportunity to get some role playing some minutes at the 1-3 just based on the players. DT, Grayson, Ingram and Matt might get most minutes but that 5th spot surely will have a role.
Luke is a better ball handler than Matt or Grayson and he does have the ability to facilitate an offense. We might even see Ingram facilitate the offense too. Luke can be compared and contrasted to Grayson and Matt and in some areas he's just better but that doesn't entitle him but it should give him opportunity.

Luke will absolutely get minutes, and he'll be the leading scorer in more than one game during the year, just b/c he has a knack for scoring. I mean Grayson lead the team in scoring a few times. But to suggest (not you Jake) that he would lead the team at 19ppg is absurd.

Don't over complicate it though- Sheed leaving the team directly impacted the role Grayson would have. He no longer needed to worry about as short of a leash or whether he would even get in(b/c he knew he would get in each game). It alleviated some of that pressure he had on him, and just allowed him to play ball. Luke is an uber confident kid, i'm sure he'll have his freshman moments too, but it wont be because of anything Grayson did last year or how the staff saw grayson last year. Different situations.

 

[Jake1985]

Timo again I agree. The bench depth is different thus Luke will have a role. If either of Tyus or Sheed would have still been at Duke Luke might have faced the same depth issues Grayson faced. I do believe that the Staff does reflect on what "opportunity" elicits.

 

[dukiejay]

" I'm sure K and the staff have learned from Grayson's Frosh year so I expect to see Luke on the floor much more"

Not only do I expect Kennard to be in the floor quite a bit, I expect him to be the leading scorer, around 19 ppg.

There isn't a scenario where I see that as even a remote possibility.

 

[1156jack]

Ingram is a a great talent, but very young and very, very skinny. Kennard is physically mature and ready to go. Plus, I like that Kennard was a very talented high school football quarterback (before giving it up his senior year to concentrate on b'ball). I stand by my belief that Kennard will be the leading scorer while averaging 19 per game.

 

[1156jack]

I should add something everyone already knows. Kennard finished second in all time Ohio high school basketball scoring ahead of Lebron James.

 

[dukehokie]

I should add something everyone already knows. Kennard finished second in all time Ohio high school basketball scoring ahead of Lebron James.

View embedded media

Not to discount what you're saying, but DeMarcus Nelson was California's All-Time leading scorer and his highest ppg average was 14.5 per...as a senior.

Luke obviously is wired to score. That's a given. But he's going to have to shoot a high percentage to get his points, because he's not going to be a volume shooter at Duke, something the Taylor Kings of the world wouldn't understand.

 

[1156jack]

Not to discount what you're saying, but DeMarcus Nelson was California's All-Time leading scorer and his highest ppg average was 14.5 per...as a senior.

Luke obviously is wired to score. That's a given. But he's going to have to shoot a high percentage to get his points, because he's not going to be a volume shooter at Duke, something the Taylor Kings of the world wouldn't understand.

You may be right. Demarcus Nelson is a decent analogy so that gives me pause for thought. Demarcus used physical dominance over high school players as his primary weapon. That didn't translate as well to the ACC collegiate ranks. Though DeMarcus was a good outside shooter, he was not outstanding. Taylor King was a big guy that depended on others to get him the ball. He had a good (though slow release) jump shot. This put him in the situation that you refer to as a volume shooter, that is, someone who doesn't get many shot attempts so each one must count.

Kennard has advantages over both. He is bigger than Demarcus and shoots a better three. He is much quicker than Taylor and, unlike him, is a ball handler. The other advantage is the era that we are in today. In the days of Nelson and King the team was usually loaded with "older" guys. There are few established scoring threats on this team, yet it needs reliable "go to" offense.

Eric Bossi, when evaluating this class, notes that Kennard is physically ready to go. Plus, as a former QB and terrific scorer (close to 40 ppg), he has the "it" factor.

 

[timo0402]

Dukehokie wasn't comparing Luke's game to those of Taylor or Demarcus, but yet saying that just because you're a scorer at the HS level doesn't necessarily make you a bonafide scorer right away in college.

And while Yes, he wont have a lot of upper classman in his way, he'll still have to lead the team in scoring from the 6th or 7th man role, which is not likely. Luke will be the leading scorer at some point in his Duke career, no question about it. But to say he will his freshman year i think is a bit premature. He's got a lot of guys ahead of him in the rotation for minutes right now- that alone will drop his averages- DT, GA, MJ, BI will all be getting on the floor before Luke to start the year. .

 

[1156jack]

I can't really argue with your logic. You could be right and Luke will come off the bench. When it comes down to it the reason that I believe that Kennard starts has to do with his native leadership ability and an intangible quality the French call "joie de vivre ". Go back and watch his videos. You can not find one where ge is not lighting up the court and his team mates with the joy of the game. It reminds me of the same spirit that Magic Johnson had. It is infectious and, especially with a young team, highly desirable.

 

[timo0402]

I can't really argue with your logic. You could be right and Luke will come off the bench. When it comes down to it the reason that I believe that Kennard starts has to do with his native leadership ability and an intangible quality the French call "joie de vivre ". Go back and watch his videos. You can not find one where ge is not lighting up the court and his team mates with the joy of the game. It reminds me of the same spirit that Magic Johnson had. It is infectious and, especially with a young team, highly desirable.

NO question, kid is going to be a stud. I'm not going to turn this thread into a thread debating you and start bashing my own guy. I think it'll just have to be in time, it wont be right away thats all. He'll be there soon enough....i think this will be Graysons team next year though...just a hunch i have.

 

[1156jack]

I know this topic was discussed a month ago and interest has waned. But I was at the Harris Teeter this afternoon and while there glanced at a hard copy of the ACC Sports Journal as it focused on football and basketball recruiting. They had a page dedicated to the TOP 50 incoming basketball recruits this season as it relates not to NBA draft potential, but to who will make contributions on the floor next year. If you pay for premium content you can find the story here (https://accsports.com/ranking-2014-15-acc-newcomers/).
The Number One player who will make a contribution next year in the ACC, according to their expert,Brick Oettinger, is Luke Kennard. They make the point that Kennard will be a more powerful scoring threat than JJ Reddick.
There were several posters who made eloquent points about why Kennard will not be the leading scorer, one calling the idea absurd. So it will be interesting to see what happens. I have changed my view a bit. I think he could be the leading scorer but am concerned that his defense will not be sufficient to get him on the floor enough to score as many as he could.

 

[dukehokie]

I know this topic was discussed a month ago and interest has waned. But I was at the Harris Teeter this afternoon and while there glanced at a hard copy of the ACC Sports Journal as it focused on football and basketball recruiting. They had a page dedicated to the TOP 50 incoming basketball recruits this season as it relates not to NBA draft potential, but to who will make contributions on the floor next year. If you pay for premium content you can find the story here (https://accsports.com/ranking-2014-15-acc-newcomers/).
The Number One player who will make a contribution next year in the ACC, according to their expert,Brick Oettinger, is Luke Kennard. They make the point that Kennard will be a more powerful scoring threat than JJ Reddick.
There were several posters who made eloquent points about why Kennard will not be the leading scorer, one calling the idea absurd. So it will be interesting to see what happens. I have changed my view a bit. I think he could be the leading scorer but am concerned that his defense will not be sufficient to get him on the floor enough to score as many as he could.

I was a part of that discussion. I'd love to bring it back.

I believe the idea was that Luke will score at least 19 ppg. I have no doubts that Luke will be an integral part of this offense. And he is a serviceable defender. Better than JJ at that stage anyway. And JJ got plenty of time. Of everyone coming in, Luke has the biggest skill set. Grayson can shoot and drive very nicely. I want to see him do that now that he is on the scouting report (not being skeptical, just thinking like an analyst). Amile and Marshall are who they are. Sean won't be asked to score unless he's been working on it. Matt can shoot, but his game off of the bounce has to improve.

That now leaves us with our freshmen who will be asked to contribute. They'll have no choice. Brandon is tough. Great shooter, wiry strong and can find his way around the basket. Vrank, Justin and the walk-ons will be bodies in practice for now, though Robinson has apparently shown Reggie Love type promise (can contribute in a pinch). Derryck is going to have to be a distributor first. Not because he can't score, but because with the collection of varied skills, everyone is going to need a touch in order to take advantage of that asset. That leaves us with Luke. Great ball-handler, a surprisingly good passer, obviously can shoot and actually is a great long rebounder. He has the tools to be a great scorer. I think he's going to score for this team. He will lead some games and some he won't. But I just don't know if he will carry this team offensively. That's my point.

 

[DukeDenver]

At least 4 different guys will have 25+ point outings, but I doubt anyone gets 19ppg for the year. Leading scorer will be around 17 IMO. We're just so balanced on the perimeter.

 

[dukehokie]

At least 4 different guys will have 25+ point outings, but I doubt anyone gets 19ppg for the year. Leading scorer will be around 17 IMO. We're just so balanced on the perimeter.

I'd say 17 might be high. I think 15 with 3-4 averaging 10+.

For example, some notable averages (approximate):

14-15 - Okafor (Fr)- 15 ppg
12-13 Plumlee and Curry 17 ppg
10-11 Smith 20 ppg Singler 17 ppg
09 - 10 Scheyer 18 ppg
06 - 07 Nelson 14 ppg
05 - 06 Redick 27 ppg
03 - 04 Redick (soph) 15 ppg
01 - 02 Williams 21 ppg
93 - 94 Hill 17 ppg
91 - 91 Laettner 21 ppg

As you can see, there are varied results at the end of each season, and a lot of it is based on the scoring talent on each team as well as their respective years. The juniors and seniors obviously have the green light for good reason. The freshman teams tend to spread the wealth because there is a learning curve and the young guys get tired a little more easily (see Jah).

So as good as Luke is and could be, he won't be asked to carry the scoring load like that. In a typical Duke season (35-39 games), a guy would have to score around 700+ points. I just don't see K giving that green light, or Luke being able to sustain it his first year in college (which is a serious adjustment season for most guys). I will say, that if Luke stays for 4, he will be our next 2000 point scorer.

 

[timo0402]

I know this topic was discussed a month ago and interest has waned. But I was at the Harris Teeter this afternoon and while there glanced at a hard copy of the ACC Sports Journal as it focused on football and basketball recruiting. They had a page dedicated to the TOP 50 incoming basketball recruits this season as it relates not to NBA draft potential, but to who will make contributions on the floor next year. If you pay for premium content you can find the story here (https://accsports.com/ranking-2014-15-acc-newcomers/).
The Number One player who will make a contribution next year in the ACC, according to their expert,Brick Oettinger, is Luke Kennard. They make the point that Kennard will be a more powerful scoring threat than JJ Reddick.
There were several posters who made eloquent points about why Kennard will not be the leading scorer, one calling the idea absurd. So it will be interesting to see what happens. I have changed my view a bit. I think he could be the leading scorer but am concerned that his defense will not be sufficient to get him on the floor enough to score as many as he could.

No i called him averaging 19ppg this season absurd. I stand by that. Jah was the ACC ROY and POY and didnt even average that.

 

[1156jack]

"But to suggest (not you Jake) that he would lead the team at 19ppg is absurd."

You are correct. I stand corrected.